argument105 寄托4人组 8.25 作业

tangjihedeUID: 2107695

Argument105  
------摘要------
作者：寄托4人组     共用时间：30分3秒     480 words
从2005年7月25日9时48分到2005年7月25日10时30分
------题目------
The following appeared in a health newsletter.
'According to a recent study, people with many social ties report catching colds less often than do people with few social ties. Consequently, researchers conclude that having an active social life probably helps strengthen the immune system. The researchers note that catching a cold—one of a family of highly contagious viruses—gives the cold-sufferer temporary immunity to that virus in the future, but not to the many other related viruses. Merely being exposed to a new cold virus, however, is not enough for a person to catch a cold, since a strong immune system can successfully fight off some new viruses. Thus, in order to prevent catching a cold, people should strengthen their immune systems by becoming more active socially.'
------正文------
By appealing to a recent study and deduction, the author in this argument tries to convince us that people should strengthen their immune systems by becoming more active socially. Although this argument does bear some merits, yet a close scrutiny will reveal sever critical flaws that undermine its validity.

To begin with, the validity of the recent study is open to doubt. The author does not give any detailed information about how the study were conducted, such as how many people were involved in the research, whether the pool was large enough, whether they were chosen randomly, etc. It is possible that the researchers only studied the cases of a few people, while their situations are far from being representative to most of the population. Even if the pool is large enough, the data might still be vulnerable. The study is based on respondents' own report, while sometimes people are reluctant to tell the real situations. For example, perhaps those people with an active social concealed their frequency of catching a cold, out of the concern of their business and fame, etc. If this is the case, then the conclusion of this research is highly suspected.

Even granted that this research is reliable, that is, granted that people with more social ties catch less cold, it does not necessarily follow that having an active social life helps strengthen the immune system. The author here commits a fallacy of concurrence. It is entirely possible, for instance, people with more social ties were born to have strong immune system, while those with less social ties were not. Thus, it might be that the genes of people determine their health; merely imitating others' behaviors will help nothing. Equally possible is that those people with more social ties do more exercises than others, or maybe they are usually much richer so that they have better doctors and eat more medicine to prevent catching a cold. Without ruling out these possibilities, the author is too hasty to hold a causal relationship between strong immune system and the phenomenon of more social ties.

Moreover, the fact that catching a cold can only gives the cold-sufferer temporary immunity to that virus and not to other related viruses also tells that by simply becoming more active socially one will not have a stronger immunity system. We can know from the research that people who have already had strong immune systems might be free from catching a cold in social activities, while those with weak immune systems are not. For these weak people, more social activities usually leads to higher chances to catch a contagious cold. What is more, the research tells that catching more cold cannot help prevent catching the same cold or other related cold in the future. Thus, by having more social activities, a person with weak immune system will not only suffer from more colds, but will also continue to suffer from these colds in the future. Therefore, the author's suggestion {time ending}might be rather harmful.

In sum, the argument is not very persuasive as it stands. To strengthen the argument, the author would have to provide more evidence to prove that the study is reliable, that the causal relationship between more social activities and less cold really exists, and that having more social ties will not be harmful to those people with weak immune systems.

(560 words after polish 肯定打不完。)

bridgewalkerUID: 208595

Argument105  
------摘要------
作者：寄托4人组     共用时间：30分3秒     480 words
从2005年7月25日9时48分到2005年7月25日10时30分
------题目------
The following appeared in a health newsletter.
'According to a recent study, people with many social ties report catching colds less often than do people with few social ties. Consequently, researchers conclude that having an active social life probably helps strengthen the immune system. The researchers note that catching a cold—one of a family of highly contagious viruses—gives the cold-sufferer temporary immunity to that virus in the future, but not to the many other related viruses. Merely being exposed to a new cold virus, however, is not enough for a person to catch a cold, since a strong immune system can successfully fight off some new viruses. Thus, in order to prevent catching a cold, people should strengthen their immune systems by becoming more active socially.'
------正文------
By appealing to a recent study and deduction, the author in this argument tries to convince us that people should strengthen their immune systems by becoming more active socially. Although this argument does bear some merits, yet a close scrutiny will reveal sever critical flaws that undermine its validity.

To begin with, the validity of the recent study is open to doubt. The author does not give any detailed information about how the study were conducted, such as how many people were involved in the research, whether the pool was large enough, whether they were chosen randomly, etc. It is possible that the researchers only studied the cases of a few people, while their situations are far from being representative to most of the population. Even if the pool is large enough, the data might still be vulnerable. The study is based on respondents' own report, while sometimes people are reluctant to tell the real situations. For example, perhaps those people with an active social concealed their frequency of catching a cold, out of the concern of their business and fame(有点儿夸张吧?), etc. If this is the case, then the conclusion of this research is highly suspected.

Even granted that this research is reliable, that is, granted that(跟前面重复了。建议把前面换一下。) people with more social ties catch less cold, it does not necessarily follow that having an active social life helps strengthen the immune system. The author here 加个might是不是好些? commits a fallacy of concurrence. It is entirely possible, for instance, people with more social ties were born to have strong immune system, while those with less social ties were not. Thus, it might be that the genes of people determine their health; merely imitating others' behaviors will help nothing. Equally possible is that those people with more social ties do more exercises than others, or maybe they are usually much richer so that they have better doctors and eat more medicine(说营养好,medical care好好些吧?) to prevent catching a cold. Without ruling out these possibilities, the author is too hasty to hold a causal relationship between strong immune system and the phenomenon of more social ties.

Moreover, the fact that catching a cold can only gives(give) the cold-sufferer temporary immunity to that virus and not to other related viruses also tells that by simply becoming more active socially one will not have a stronger immunity system. We can know from the research that people who have already had strong immune systems might be free from catching a cold in social activities, while those with weak immune systems are not. For these weak people, more social activities usually leads(lead?) to higher chances to catch a contagious cold. What is more, the research tells that catching more cold cannot help prevent catching the same cold or other related cold in the future. Thus, by having more social activities, a person with weak immune system will not only suffer from more colds, but will also continue to suffer from these colds in the future. Therefore, the author's suggestion {time ending}might be rather harmful.

In sum, the argument is not very persuasive as it stands. To strengthen the argument, the author would have to provide more evidence to prove that the study is reliable, that the causal relationship between more social activities and less cold really exists, and that having more social ties will not be harmful to those people with weak immune systems.

(水平有限！B3没怎么看明白。
问一下汤剂：阿狗是审好题后计时写的还是计时开始才审题的？)

[ Last edited by bridgewalker on 2005-8-25 at 20:23 ]

tangjihedeUID: 2107695

这道题比较难，所以是审好题开始计时的。B3的意思是说根据研究，免疫力强的人暴露在病菌下不会得病，但弱的会得，而且得了后无法获得永久免疫，以后在暴露在病菌下还一样会得。而作者建议让弱的人去多社交，只会加大他们感冒的可能，而且感冒之后白感了，以后也不会免疫。所以作者的建议很有害，简直是闲着没事折腾人。

meautoUID: 2116250

说错了表要砍我啊~~~~
先看你的观点:
免疫力差的人去参加社交,更容易患感冒,
而根据:the researchers note that catching a cold- one of ....temporary immunity to that virus in the future, but not to the many other related viruses.
患一次感冒不能避免换其他的,或是第2次感冒.
反正就是社交和免疫系统根本没关系

还可以这样攻击
那句话里给出的a cold是哪种cold
而study社交多的人colds有是什么?
如果除了专家给的那个cold,其他的 感冒可能给人长久,广泛的抵抗力
如果不擅长社交的人得的是这种感冒
那么社交和免疫力就更没有关系了.

killowindUID: 207262

Even granted that this research is reliable, that is, granted that people with more social ties catch less cold, it does not necessarily follow that having an active social life helps strengthen the immune system. The author here commits a fallacy of concurrence. It is entirely possible, for instance, people with more social ties were born to have strong immune system（这句话有点邪乎，明显缺乏理性，好像只有具有strong immune system的人才能够有social ties,偏见，论证不充分）, while those with less social ties were not. Thus, it might be that the genes of people determine their health，（基因决定健康没有问题，但是不能说有了好基因就有更多的social ties）; merely imitating others' behaviors will help nothing. Equally possible is that those people with more social ties do more exercises than others, or maybe they are usually much richer so that they have better doctors and eat more medicine to prevent catching a cold. Without ruling out these possibilities, the author is too hasty to hold a causal relationship between strong immune system and the phenomenon of more social ties.
感觉第三段有些问题,实际上speaker还有一个问题就是往往都是身体好的人才有精力去参加社会活动,而那些病秧子当然就在家里休息啦,所以也可以作为反例
以上系个人观点

tangjihedeUID: 2107695

嗯，有道理！多谢指正！

meautoUID: 2116250

实际上speaker还有一个问题就是往往都是身体好的人才有精力去参加社会活动,而那些病秧子当然就在家里休息啦,所以也可以作为反例

这能说明虾米问题?

tangjihedeUID: 2107695

说明社交－》少感冒的因果关系不成立。后者在先。