argument73 同主题，想了很久，写了很久，也改了很久，还是不太懂~~

bunnymz2005UID：2146758

Argument73
题目
The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.

"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."
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翻译
10年前，长期汽车租赁在我们Mohilia国家出现，成为对于汽车完全所有权的一种补充，这种租赁业务的受欢迎度也逐渐增加。过去五年的每一年中，租赁新车的人数都超过了买新车的人数。Mohilia的汽车平均使用时间为6年；因此，如果新车租赁在今年又一次超过购买，有可能大多数驾驶员将会开租来的车而不是私人拥有的车。因此，我们应该把业务重点从出售车辆转向租赁车辆。
****************************************************************************
提纲：
1．租车的人比买车的人多，不一定代表租出去的车也比卖出去的车多。可能买车的人喜欢频繁的换车，买五辆也是有可能的。所以单凭这一点没有办法说明汽车租赁是更受欢迎。
2．作者错误的以为，今年新车租赁又一次超过购买一定预示着大多数驾驶员会开租来的车。首先，作者差异了概念，新车和私有车。私有车除了包括新车还包括二手车的购买，如果这部分人群比较大，租赁新车的人数就不一定能超过私人拥有的车了。其次，不是所有的新车都在今年被replace，这样新车租赁超过购买属于很自然的现象，却不能代表将来大多数人会开租来的车，有可能，当他们的车报废掉的时候再买新车，或者像以上说的再去买二手车。
3．就算是承认租赁市场真的比较好，作者强调业务重点转向租赁车也是很鲁莽的。作者没有考虑利润的问题，我们知道通常购买一辆新车要比租赁一辆新车多花费很多钱，因此很可能售车市场的利润更大。另外，还有自身的成本问题，转为租赁业务可能公司的管理，销售，都要发生变化，难免增加了一部分成本。
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正文：
Prior to choosing to change the focus of business from selling cars to leasing them, I find the evidence presented in this argument requires an in-depth scrutiny from several aspects. In my opinion, the author seems to have posited that new car leases would surely be popular in the future in Mohilia without considering other possibilities and thus draw a conclusion that is fundamentally flawed.

The threshold problem with this argument is its unfair postulation that the number of people leasing or purchasing new cars is necessarily equivalent to that of cars which have been leased or sold. In fact, it is entirely possible that people who choose to buy new cars do not only purchase one car each year. Maybe they are collectors of new cars, or perhaps most of them buy three or four cars a year just because they are quite rich. In stark contrast, people who use leasing cars tend to keep it for a long period. Hence, without taking into consideration this possibility, the author can not convince me that the larger number of people who rent cars must be an indicator of the popularity of leasing cars.

In addition, the author also illogically presumes that the majority of drivers will choose to buy leasing cars rather than own individual ones, given that new car leases again outnumber purchases this year. The author fails to recognize the difference between the concept of new car and individually owned car. Actually, common sense tells us that the former conception belongs to the latter one, in other word, individually owned car can break down into two categories: new car and second-hand one. The author seems to have taken it for granted that people who do not buy new car will surely choose the leasing car without taking into account the second-hand car. In that case, we have sufficient reasons to assume that people, due to their poor condition of economy, would tend to buy a relatively cheap second-hand car, which may make the number of individually owned car surpass that of leasing car. Furthermore, the author also provides no evidence to show that people would substitute their cars this year. As mentioned in this argument, the average longevity of cars in Molihia is six years. Perhaps most of people buy their car during recent three or four years, and this year is only the fourth or fifth year of their car’s being used. In that case, it is natural that the new car leases again surpass purchases this year, which, however, lends little support to the author’s assumption.

Before coming to finish my analysis, we might as well turn our focus to the author's conclusion. Even assuming that the market of leasing car is as profitable and promising as the author claims, it would be nevertheless perfunctory to conclude that their company must earn more from leasing car than selling new car. For one thing, the author does not account for the distinct profit between leasing car and new car. As we all know, new car often sells at a good price and thereby obtaining high profit in comparison to leasing car. For that matter, it is highly possible that new cars would actually attain more profit for company even if the number for sales is lower than that for leasing. For another thing, the author also neglects the change in their company if they transfer their business to the leasing car. There is a good chance that in order to operate leasing car in the market the company has to hire new employees, build more agencies for leasing car, or even invest more money in advertising, all of which may serve to increase the company's costs and correspondingly decline the profit. Since the author fails to respond to these concerns, the conclusion of altering their business from new car to leasing car would be premature at best.

To sum up, the argument is weakened by a series of unsubstantiated evidence as it stands. To better evaluate it, I would need to know the number of the cars for leasing and the cars sold out. Moreover, the author should also provide detailed information about the other kind of cars except the leasing cars and new cars; otherwise, the argument would be unfounded.

lawrence1984UID：178326

argument73 同主题，想了很久，写了很久，也改了很久，还是不太懂~~

Argument73
题目
The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.

"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."
***************************************************************************
翻译
10年前，长期汽车租赁在我们Mohilia国家出现，成为对于汽车完全所有权的一种补充，这种租赁业务的受欢迎度也逐渐增加。过去五年的每一年中，租赁新车的人数都超过了买新车的人数。Mohilia的汽车平均使用时间为6年；因此，如果新车租赁在今年又一次超过购买，有可能大多数驾驶员将会开租来的车而不是私人拥有的车。因此，我们应该把业务重点从出售车辆转向租赁车辆。
****************************************************************************
提纲：
1．租车的人比买车的人多，不一定代表租出去的车也比卖出去的车多。可能买车的人喜欢频繁的换车，买五辆也是有可能的。所以单凭这一点没有办法说明汽车租赁是更受欢迎。
2．作者错误的以为，今年新车租赁又一次超过购买一定预示着大多数驾驶员会开租来的车。首先，作者差异了概念，新车和私有车。私有车除了包括新车还包括二手车的购买，如果这部分人群比较大，租赁新车的人数就不一定能超过私人拥有的车了。其次，不是所有的新车都在今年被replace，这样新车租赁超过购买属于很自然的现象，却不能代表将来大多数人会开租来的车，有可能，当他们的车报废掉的时候再买新车，或者像以上说的再去买二手车。
3．就算是承认租赁市场真的比较好，作者强调业务重点转向租赁车也是很鲁莽的。作者没有考虑利润的问题，我们知道通常购买一辆新车要比租赁一辆新车多花费很多钱，因此很可能售车市场的利润更大。另外，还有自身的成本问题，转为租赁业务可能公司的管理，销售，都要发生变化，难免增加了一部分成本。（提纲的考虑很细致，这篇的驳斥点不好选，但是能够想到这几个已经很好了！）****************************************************************************
正文：
Prior to choosing to change the focus of business from selling cars to leasing them, I find the evidence presented in this argument requires an in-depth scrutiny from several aspects. In my opinion, the author seems to have posited that new car leases would surely be popular in the future in Mohilia without considering other possibilities and thus draw a conclusion that is fundamentally flawed.（非常出色的开头！）

The threshold problem with this argument is its unfair postulation that the number of people leasing or purchasing new cars is necessarily equivalent to that of cars which have been leased or sold. In fact, it is entirely possible that people who choose to buy new cars do not only purchase one car each year. Maybe they are collectors of new cars, or perhaps most of them buy three or four cars a year just because they are quite rich. In stark contrast, people who use leasing cars tend to keep it for a long period.（他因） Hence, without taking into consideration this possibility, the author can not convince me that the larger number of people who rent cars must be an indicator of the popularity of leasing cars.（这段写得挺好，我觉得还可以这样考虑，文章只说了过去5年的每一年里租车的比买车的人多，也许在这5年里，租车的人数自身在下降 ，只是没有买车的人数下降得快，那么作者认为租车受欢迎就是不攻自破的了。不知道你同意吗？）
In addition, the author also illogically presumes that the majority of drivers will choose to buy leasing cars rather than own individual ones, given that new car leases again outnumber purchases this year. The author fails to recognize the difference between the concept of new car and individually owned car. Actually, common sense tells（informs） us that the former conception belongs to the latter one, in other word, individually owned car can break down into two categories: new car and second-hand one.（对于偷换概念往往很少有人写，真的想得很细致！） The author seems to have taken it for granted that people who do not buy new car will surely choose the leasing car without taking into account the second-hand car. In that case, we have sufficient reasons to assume that people, due to their poor condition of economy, would tend to buy a relatively cheap second-hand car, which may（用might 会好点，尽管意思相差不大！） make the number of individually owned car（cars） surpass that of leasing car. Furthermore, the author also provides no evidence to show that people would substitute their cars this year. As mentioned in this argument, the average longevity of cars in Molihia is six years. Perhaps most of people buy their car during recent three or four years, and this year is only the fourth or fifth year of their car’s being used. In that case, it is natural that the new car leases again surpass purchases this year, which, however, lends little support to the author’s assumption.（很好！但是这段显得有点长，在实战中建议把这段分两个驳斥点，这样思路更突出！）
Before coming to finish my analysis, we might as well turn our focus to the author's conclusion. Even assuming that the market of leasing car is as profitable and promising as the author claims, it would be nevertheless perfunctory to conclude that their company must earn more from leasing car than selling new car. For one thing, the author does not account for the distinct profit between leasing car and new car. As we all know, new car often sells at a good price and thereby obtaining high profit in comparison to leasing car. For that matter, it is highly possible that new cars would actually attain more profit for company even if the number for sales is lower than that for leasing. For another thing, the author also neglects the change in their company if they transfer their business to the leasing car. There is a good chance that in order to operate leasing car in the market the company has to hire new employees, build more agencies for leasing car, or even invest more money in advertising, all of which may serve to increase the company's costs and correspondingly decline the profit. Since the author fails to respond to these concerns, the conclusion of altering their business from new car to leasing car would be premature at best.（这段写的也很好，逻辑连贯。）To sum up, the argument is weakened by a series of unsubstantiated evidence as it stands. To better evaluate it, I would need to know the number of the cars for leasing and the cars sold out. Moreover, the author should also provide detailed information about the other kind of cars except the leasing cars and new cars; otherwise, the argument would be unfounded.
我个人认为你写挺好的，其实只要把自己认为有缺陷的地方驳斥具体和全面，那么就是好的，虽然这篇的错误不太容易找，但是你写的这几个都是典型的，把典型的驳斥好了，就没有问题了！Forge ahead, never retreat!~~

[ 本帖最后由 lawrence1984 于 2006-2-15 18:07 编辑 ]

lawrence1984UID：178326

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