argument39 二月的机经题 限时成功可是字数少得可怜~~~~

bunnymz2005UID：2146758

TOPIC：ARGUMENT 39 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana College.

"Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni."
WORDS：440          TIME：0:29:47          DATE：2006-2-17

Prior to choosing to initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni University, the evidence presented in this argument requires an in-depth scrutiny from several aspects, by doing which, I find that the author seems to have posited that Humana College and Omni University are similar enough to compare with each other without ruling out other possible factors and thus draws a conclusion that is fundamentally flawed.

The threshold problem with this argument is its establishment of unwarranted causal relationship between the decline of expenditures for dormitory and classroom space of Omni and the employment of the long-distance programs. In fact, we are not informed of any information about the number of students who do not attend the long-distance degree programs. In that case, we have sufficient reasons to assume that due to the development of Omni University on economy and management, more students are allowed to enter Omni University to receive a normal education in the classroom. If true, the reduction of dormitory and classroom would be have little relationship with the use of computer during long-distance education but may be because of Omni's excellent management or the student’s economy consciousness. Since the author fails to respond to this concern, his assertion cannot convince me at all.

In addition, the author illogically presumes that the long-distance program would also have effect at Humana College merely based on the experience of Omni, which, however, may not be the case either. It is entirely possible that Omni University is a college with a long history and also great fame for its high-qualified education which appeal to most students, while Humana College may be just a local college with bad quality of teaching. If true, the students would still not consider entering Humana College, let alone the long-distance programs. Without taking into consideration this possibility, the authenticity and credibility of the author's recommendation cannot be justified.

Before coming to finish my analysis, we might as well turn our focus to the author's conclusion which unfairly suggests that long-distance program would surely solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College. However, the author fails to consider the cost of this measure, such as the appliance for installing this long-distance system, the extra fee for newly hired teacher who can operate this system, both of which may cost a great amount of money and thus presumably offset the revenue gained from the program, if any. Furthermore, the author provides no information about the reason for budgets deficit at Humana College. Maybe the rooted problem is the inefficiency of its management or even bribery of its leaders. Hence, any of these scenarios would inevitably undermine the author's conclusion.

To sum up, the argument is weakened by the flaws discussed above. Much work is needed before drawing a convincible conclusion; otherwise, the argument would be unfounded.

lawrence1984UID：178326

一会发上来，这篇还要认真考虑一下。

lawrence1984UID：178326

argument39 二月的机经题 限时成功可是字数少得可怜~~~~

TOPIC：ARGUMENT 39 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana College.

"Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni."
WORDS：440          TIME：0:29:47          DATE：2006-2-17

Prior to choosing to initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni University, the evidence presented in this argument requires an in-depth scrutiny from several aspects, by doing which, I find that the author seems to have posited that Humana College and Omni University are similar enough to compare with each other without ruling out other possible factors and thus draws a conclusion that is fundamentally flawed.（指出你的驳斥中心是错误类比，很好！）

The threshold problem with this argument is its establishment of unwarranted causal relationship between the decline of expenditures for dormitory and classroom space of Omni and the employment of the long-distance programs. In fact, we are not informed of any information about the number of students who do not attend the long-distance degree programs. In that case, we have sufficient reasons to assume that due to the development of Omni University on economy and management, more students are allowed to enter Omni University to receive a normal education in the classroom. If true, the reduction of dormitory and classroom would be have little relationship with the use of computer during long-distance education but may be because of Omni's excellent management or the student’s economy consciousness（这段要驳斥的是所谓的上远程教育课的人增多与教室开支的减少没有关系；你的驳斥虽然没有问题，但是在逻辑上还需补充：1 50%不一定有什么说服力 ，涉及到基数问题，2，就算这个数据有说服力，也没有提供其他学生的情况，可能很多，全部住校，而且经济意思强，按照下文的意思，越多地人住校应该使开支减少。我不知道是否应该这样理解？但是觉得原文给的提示很别扭。你认为呢？ ）. Since the author fails to respond to this concern, his assertion cannot convince me at all.（这段的驳斥还要斟酌一下。我也搞不清楚教室开支与学生的人数有什么关系，迷茫中……）
In addition, the author illogically presumes that the long-distance program would also have effect at Humana College merely based on the experience of Omni, which, however, may not be the case either. It is entirely possible that Omni University is a college with a long history and also great fame for its high-qualified education which appeal to most students, while Humana College may be just a local college with bad quality of teaching. If true, the students would still not consider entering Humana College, let alone the long-distance programs（这点很好，但是太少，也可以说学校交通不便利，四周都是农场，环境不好，宿舍住宿条件差得让人无法忍受，没有名教师等等因素。）. Without taking into consideration this possibility, the authenticity and credibility of the author's recommendation cannot be justified.

Before coming to finish my analysis, we might as well turn our focus to the author's conclusion which unfairly suggests that long-distance program would surely solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College. However, the author fails to consider the cost of this measure, such as the appliance for installing this long-distance system, the extra fee for newly hired teacher who can operate this system, both of which may cost a great amount of money and thus presumably offset the revenue gained from the program, if any. Furthermore, the author provides no information about the reason for budgets deficit at Humana College. Maybe the rooted problem is the inefficiency of its management or even bribery of its leaders.（这点写得很好！） Hence, any of these scenarios would inevitably undermine the author's conclusion.

To sum up, the argument is weakened by the flaws discussed above. Much work is needed before drawing a convincible conclusion; otherwise, the argument would be unfounded.
文章整体上是很好的，我觉得第二段的思路让人觉得有点不清晰，后面两段写得很好！
我个人意见，你批判吸收就可以了。

[ 本帖最后由 lawrence1984 于 2006-2-17 15:11 编辑 ]

lawrence1984UID：178326

其实这篇的字数也没有那么可怜拉，不我觉得要提高字数，就要对于文中的逻辑错误多些一两个，这样字数就很快增多了。这篇文章在暗示上有矛盾，先说上远程课的人多了，导致教师开支减少，后面谈到H大学时，本来人就少，为什么开支还在多呢？迷茫

作者建议开远程教育课 是建立在如下两个假设的情况下的：1远程教育受欢迎，但是仅仅是50%这个数实在 太不足以说明了，可能去年20个人，今年三十个人，而20000人上其他课；
2。远程教育可以使教室和宿舍的开支减少，这是没有证据的，可能是由于管理好，学生意识强等其他因素而已；
3。4 就像你写的一样。
我是这样认为 ，仅供你参考。