argument170 FLY AW小组第二十六次作业

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT170 - For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters. This trend began shortly after harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. But scientists have now devised a process for killing the bacteria. Once consumers are made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow.
WORDS: 454          TIME: 上午 12:36:21          DATE: 2006-7-2

In this argument, the author concludes that through the use of newly-devised process for killing the bacteria existing in oysters, the price of Gulf Coast oysters customers will be willing to pay would rise, thus induces greater profits for the producers in Gulf Coast. To support the point, the aruguer cites several examples. Plausible as them seem to be, after  careful scrutiny of them, I find that few of them are convincing enough to support the conclusion.Thus, the assertion is unfounded as it stands.
The threshold assumption upon which the conclusion drawn, that the increased price of  Atlantic Coast oysters is due to harmful bacteria found in Gulf Coast oysters, is open to doubt. The aruger hastily equals the time sequence with causality. No evidence is provided that the bacteria serves as the cause. Perhaps the taste of Atlantic Coast oysters is better than that of Gulf Coast oysters. Or perhaps the Atlantic Coast oyster producers have used some technology to enhance the image of the oyster, thus induce peopel's appetite for it. Without ruling out all the other possibilities, which could also serve as the causes, the assumption mentioned above is surely unwanrranted.

Even if it is the bacteria found in the a few Gulf Coast oysters is responsible for the increased price regarding Atlantic Coast oysters, the author cannot convince us that the new process would kill the bacteria successfully. It is entirely possible that after the procedure, the valuable nutritions maintained in the oysters are killed too. Or perhaps the bacteria included in the oysters are so various and transigent that the new technology can only kill parts of them. Without the evidence to convince the effect of the newly-devised process, the result is vague, and could lend little credence to the positive expectation.

Even assuming that the process can kill the bacteria effectively and efficiently, it still cannot  ganrantee the increased price of Gulf Coast oysters in the future.No evidence is provided that individuals are willing to buy Gulf Coast oysters instead of Atlantic Coast oysters. Given the customers are all swerve to buying the Gulf Coast oysters, the price may remaint the same as before, and at the same time the price of Atlantic Coast oysters may decline as a result. If so, the expected greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers is unsubstantiated.

In sum,  the author draw the conclusion based on a series of obvious logical fallacies. To strengthen the assertion, we should also need detailed imformation regarding the effects of the new equipment, investigation of hte marketing, and  statisticall analyzing of the needs for the Gulf Coast oysters. Also, the real reason responsible for the dull sales in the past five years, should be carefully analyzed.