argument45 小鹿住在加拿大 限时成功

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 543          TIME: 上午 12:30:00          DATE: 2006-7-16

In this editorial, the author concludes that being unable to follow the age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea should be responsible for the declined arctic deer populations nationwide. To support this assertion, the author points out the traditional manner of deer's migration, as well as the phenomenon of global warming resulting to the melting glaciers. He also cited various other evidence indicating the population of the deer has decreased, which coincides with the mentioned phenomenon. However, careful examination of thes supporting evidence reveals that it lends little credible support to the author's claim.

To begin with, the reports from the local hunters regarding the declination of the deer's population is open to doubt. On the one hand, the author fails to provide the relevant evidence about the size and representative of the hunters. Is the amount of the hunters being questioned large enough? Or can the group of sample represent the overall groups in the area? Without these detailed information, the study can only be unsounded. On the other, given the decreased population in the range where the hunters locate, the hunters’ hunting time and region are limited, and the deer has evaded from the hunters’ sight. If so, the population of the deer may not decline, instead, it may increase as a result of much more secure environment devoid of the humanity.

Besides, the global warming causing the melting glaciers cannot necessarily mean that Canada’s arctic temperature would also rise consequently. It is entirely possible that the alteration of climate pattern worldwide may not happen in this area. If so, the ice in the sea nearby may not melt. Thus the migration of the deer in Canada is unlikely to be influenced by the global warming.

Even assuming that the melting ice do exist in Canada, the causality between the phenomenon and the declination of the deer population is unverified. Perhaps the deer resorts to other manners of migration, or their habits have changed. Or perhaps the deer does not need to migrate because the increasingly warm climate in the area has led to exuberance of plants, including the very plants on which the deer feeds. Or perhaps the melting of ice occurs just at a particualr time during the year, thus it would not prevent the deer from migration. Also, besides the factor, a combination of other reasons may be responsible to the decreased population of the deer, for example, the environmental pollution which deteriorte the air in the area, or the food available becomes less, or another new predator has served as a great threat to the deer’s life. Without ruling out all the possible reasons which could explaining the declination of the deer, the author cannot convince me on the basis of melting ice in the sea.

In sum, the argument of the editorial in the wildlife journal is not persuasive. To bolster it the author must provide cleared data of the population of the deer in Canada. To better assess the conclusion, much more evidence should be provided, in order to strenthen the causality mentioned above. Such evidence might include the climate pattern in the area, whether it has changed because of the global warming; a further exploration demonstrating the current life fashion of deer in Canada.

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