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ciludali21UID: 2173816

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tsayUID: 2492916

"The population of BalmerIsland increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce thenumber of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town councilof Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each ofthe island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals,the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in mopedaccidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island ofTorseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on mopedrentals."
WORDS: 308          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2008-7-29 12:01:33

In this analysis, thearguer claims that by limiting the number of rentals in Balmer (BA)Island, the accident rate will automatically reduce 50 percent. Tosupport his claims, the arguer cites a example that the neighboringisland of Torseau (TO) had enforced similar limits on moped rentals andthey achieved a large number reduction in moped accidents. Thisargument suffers several critical flaws as it stands.

First of all, the arguerfails to establish a causal relationship between an accidents declinein TO and the limitation on moped rental numbers.  These two incidentsmay exist at the same time but not necessarily correlate with eachother. For instance, the decline of the moped accidents may (be)because ofthe effort of transportation department to educate(这句话什么意思  不懂 ) and regulate thepedestrians and the moped renters. Or it is possible that the mopedrentals in TO was limited to day-time and as a result the night timeaccidents decreased dramatically, and perhaps the decline in mopedaccident rate in TO is due to the decrease of population, for that mostpeople in TO may come to BA island during the summer months forvacation or other reasons. Without ruling out these possible factors,the arguer cannot justify his assumption that the accident rate declineis related to the rental numbers.

Secondly, even if TO'spolicy of reducing moped rentals will decrease accidents, it is notnecessary that BA will definitely have the same result as TO had. It isentirely possible that people in BA will buy more moped after thecouncil set up limitations on rentals and therefore the accidents ratewill not decrease. More over, if the citizen in BA and the rentalcompanies decide to not follow the limitation policy or rent the mopedsecretly, the result will be out of the council's expectation, too. Insum, the arguer commits a false analogy between BA and TO and theconclusion that two islands will have same good results enforcingrental limitation is unconvincing.

In addition, limiting eachof the six moped rental companies at the same time may not equal to afinal decrease in rental number. The limitation may seem to bereasonable at first glance, but the arguer neglects the possible factorthat the 30 percent of the moped rental in these companies may stillcapable of feeding the market needs and the moped renters can stillrent as many moped as they want.  没有说清楚 为什么不能导致事故减小

In conclusion, thisanalysis is groundless and not convincing. To better justify theargument, the arguer needs to provide more information about thesituation in TO and provide evidence to show that BA is similar to TO.More over, the relationship between rental number and the decline inaccident rate should be clarified with more detailed information.

第一个逻辑点是可以的 我没有写是因为我已经够3个 了
其他的就是好像句子不那么通 其他的还好


[ 本帖最后由 tsay 于 2008-7-30 22:54 编辑 ]