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发表于 2009-5-30 21:55:01
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173The following is a memorandum issued by the publisher of a newsmagazine, Newsbeat, in the country of Dinn.
"Our poorest-selling magazine issues over the past three years were those that featured international news stories on their front covers. Over the same period, competing news-magazines have significantly decreased the number of cover stories that they devote to international news. Moreover, the cost of maintaining our foreign bureaus to report on international news is increasing. Therefore, we should decrease our emphasis on international news and refrain from displaying such stories on our magazine covers."
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In this memorandum, the publisher of newsmagazine, Newsbeat concludes that they should decrease the emphasis on international news and refrain from displaying these stories on magazine covers because the poorest-selling magazine issues over the last three years were that featured international news stories on front covers, and at the same period, competing news-magzine have decreased the number of cover stories about international stories. Moreover, the cost of maintaining the foreign bureaus is increasing. On several parts, the evidence the publisher provided in the memorandum fail to establish a causal relationship with his conclusion.
First of all, the fact that the poorest-selling magazine issues over the past three years were the ones with international news stories can be explained by variety of reasons. Maybe at that time, some disease such as SARS or H1N1 spreaded so widely that people prefer staying inside safely rather than risking one's life in buying a magazine outside. If so, it might be a mistake to refrain the emphasis on international news when the special time pass by and peopel can go out buying a magazine freely. Or maybe at that period, the international news were not interesting enough. In short, without listing other possible explanations for the relatively poor sales of those particular issues the publisher cannot justifiably conclude that the international cover stories were the reason of the poor sales.
Secondly, the memorandum fails to indicate whether other magazine increased or decreased in sales by reducing the international news. It is possible that the other magazine experienced declining sales even for issues focusing only on domestic news. If so, the publisher's recommendation may make no sence. On the other hand, if other magazine experience the same correlation between cover story and sale volume, this fact would lend considerable support to the publisher's conclusion.(cited on other book)
Thirdly, the publisher mentioned that the cost of maintiaining foreign bureaus to report on international nwes is increasing. This may partly surppots the pbublisher' conclusion.yet it is not only that the cost of Nwesbeat is rising, but also the other magazine 's cost is up. So if the Newsbeat keeps the foreign bureaus, the other magazines shut up theirs, Newsbeat may turn out to be the only one to covering international news, which in turn might actually stimulate sales. It would be hasty to implement the publisher's suggestion without thinking of this possible situation.
In conclusion, the memorandum is unconvicing. To strengthen this argument, the publisher should explain that the poorest-selling magazine issues over the last three years is completely due to the international news stories covers, not the other factors. To better assess the publisher's recommendation that Newsbeat should de-emphasis international news, we would need to know what changes in sales volume other magazine experienced by de-emphasizing international news. We would also need more information about the impact that increasing costs will have on magazines presently competing wiht Newsbeat in the field of internaitonal news. |
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