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173The following is a memorandum issued by the publisher of a newsmagazine, Newsbeat, in the country of Dinn.
"Our poorest-selling magazine issues over the past three years were those that featured international news stories on their front covers. Over the same period, competing news-magazines have significantly decreased the number of cover stories that they devote to international news. Moreover, the cost of maintaining our foreign bureaus to report on international news is increasing. Therefore, we should decrease our emphasis on international news and refrain from displaying such stories on our magazine covers."
1、首先一个大前提是,作者从以三个理由,(1)销量最低的几期,就是因为封面登了国际新闻;(2)同期竞争对手减少了;(3)费用成本增加了。 推出:我们要减少国际新闻的强调并避免把这类信息刊登在封面上。之所以这样,可能是因为我们的国际新闻做的不够好,不吸引人,不合读者的胃口。我们并不一定要减少或者避免啊。而且若是对手减少,而我们继续刊登的话,销量倒可能增加。
2、作者推断销量最低的几期,就是因为封面登了国际新闻。有可能是那几期杂志本身design问题。
3、竞争对手减少了,效果没提,可能销量下降。即使其销量上升,并且盈利了,适合他们的不一定适合我们,因为两个杂志的目标读者可能不一样。
In this argument, the arguer concludes that the newsmagazine should decrease their emphasis on international news stories and refrain from displaying such stories on their magazine covers. To support the assertions, the arguer assumes that the poorest selling of magazine issues over the past three years may due to the international news stories on their front covers. The arguer also assumes that if we follow the competing news-magazines to decrease the number of the international news cover stories, we would increasing our selling and make a better profit. In addition, the arguer assumes that the way dealing with these problems is to decreasing the emphasis on international news and refrain from displaying such stories on the magazine cover. However, these assumptions are unsubstantiated for the flaws as follows.
To begin with, the author falsely depends on gratuitous assumption that the international news stories on the front covers is contributable to the poorest selling of magazine issues, while it is entirely possible that one or more factors were instead responsible for it. For example, the design of the magazine, such as the cover picture and the typesetting, in these issues maybe failed to interest the readers. Since the author can not be dearly identified the cause of the decline, I cannot be convinced that the newsmagazine should decrease their emphasis on international news stories and refrain from displaying such stories on their magazine covers.
Furthermore, even does the international news stories on the front cover is contributable to the poorest selling of magazine issues, the argument relies on the further assumption that if we follow the competing news-magazine to decrease the number of the international news cover stories, we will make a better profit, which is also untenable for the following reasons. Firstly, we don’t know whether the competing magazine get more profit after reducing the number of the international news cover stories or not. Secondly, even they get more profit, we couldn’t make a unfairly assumption that similar newspaper magazine will carry a similar results for the reason that there perhaps be some difference between the two, for example, the main readers of the two magazine may be different.
Finally, even if all the arguer’s assumptions above are reliable, the assertion the magazine should decrease their emphasis on international news stories and refrain from displaying such stories on their magazine covers would be untenable. To deal with the poor selling and the increasing cost, we could improve the quality of the magazine and shearing the employers in the international news. The competing magazine reducing their international news stories perhaps gives a chance to us to improve our selling.
To sum up, the conclusion reached in this argument lacks credibility since the evidence cited in the analysis fails to lend strong support to the arguer’s claim. To make it logically acceptable, the author should demonstrate the international stories is the only reason to the poor selling of the magazine, and provide the incidence about the competing news-magazine, also useful would be any consideration about other ways to improve the selling and to reduce the cost. |
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