Argument提纲 =So What=小组第2次作业 by fengrui129

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21： following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.'Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase.'
1， 五年前的情况不能推到现在，五年前卖得好不能说明现在卖得好，也许大家的消费观念早就变了，alpaca overcoats早就过时了。五年没有出现，消费者的消费欲不一定就被压制了。消费者说不定早就将它淡忘了，它的突然出现，不一定会引起消费者的兴趣。our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat,没有了竞争者原因是什么，也许就是因为它过时了，不一定代表羊毛衫会热卖
2， 当时我们停止生产是因为没有稳定的高质量的货源支持，而现在因为我们有了新的供应商，羊毛衫就可以重新生产，这个因果关系也太ridiculous! New fabric supplier 真的可靠么？ 质量好么？符合大众需求么？
3， 五年来服装价格上涨，未必羊毛外衣价格上涨，也许羊毛价格不升反降···   即便羊毛价格上升，那也是五年前的事，消费者不会掏钱买
4， Profit 很多方面影响盈利，成本很重要，现在成本是多少没有提供啊


22The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that builds and sells new homes in Steel City.
"Over the past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent, and family incomes in Steel City have risen much faster than the national average. Nationwide, sales of houses priced above $150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses. Such data indicate that we should make changes in our business to increase company profits. First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus instead on building houses designed to sell at above $150,000. Second, we should hire additional workers so that we can build a larger total number of houses than we did last year."
1. family incomes in Steel City 增长faster than the national average，只是在速度上，说不定它的起点很低，增长速度虽然快，但在数量上还达不到全国平均水平
2. 以整体推个案，以全国推Steel City 的情况是十分不明智的，全国超过的情况根本无法反应这个地方特定的情况
3. 错误的根据推出错误结论，数据不可靠，更别说结论，build fewer low-priced houses让更多低收入的人买不起房，也许他们一直在积攒，也许在未来一两年，他们的积蓄就能买到一套廉价房了，可是现在建的高价房让他们不可能支付
4. 无根据推理，额外用工人也是荒谬的结论，人数的增多不一定效率 产量提高。



23TOPIC: ARGUMENT23 - A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.
1. 数据不可靠，增加了30%，没有精确的数字，也许基数很小，即便增加了百分之三十，还是不多。
2. 外推类错误，过去五年增长快不能说明它现在以至将来销量就会好，也许它这正是没有city restaurants that specialize in seafood的原因。
3. 以大推小+错误因果，nationwide study不能反应Bay City的具体情况，就算他们不愿意在家做饭同时关注健康食物是真的，不能推出他们就一定会吃海鲜，反倒他们觉得海鲜不卫生，中有大量微生物，等等，而不去吃海鲜
4. profit， 文章说参观会盈利，可是没有提供任何证据。利润和成本相关，而海鲜的成本很高（运输，储藏），万一某天销路不好，导致很多海鲜变质，最终会使他们入不敷出，何谈盈利



24"In order to reduce costs, we should close some of our existing small assembly plants and build a large central plant. Grandview would be an ideal location for this new plant. First, of the locations that we have considered, Grandview has the largest adult population, so that we will be able to staff our plant quickly and easily. Second, since the average wage earne1.d by workers in Grandview is less than that in the other location,we should be able to keep production costs low. Last, as an inducement for us to build there, Grandview's town council has offered to allow us to operate for the first three years without paying city taxes."
"In order to reduce costs, we should close some of our existing small assembly plants and build a large central plant.很荒谬，无根据
1. Grandview成人多而推出容易快速的找到职员么？ 也许他们自己都有工作，没那么容易找到···就算容易找到，也没那么快，他们有可能早就和其余公司签了协议，必须要到合约期满才行···  
2. 当地工人工资低不一定会导致成本降低，可能他们要求工资低的原因是他们受的教育少，受的教育少就意味着公司要花大力气在他们的教育上，花钱给他们培训，工人把用来工作的时间都花在了学习上，公司的产量更会下降···
3. 免税肯定是有原因的，也许正是当地各种条件的稀缺，才使得各企业不在此建厂。现在免税OK  但过了这三年，税的多少不可预料···

25The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.'Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View.'
1. 错误类比，Ocean View ，Hopewel 存在很多不同  把Ocean View 的情况放到 Hopewell 是不明智，不合适的
2. building new municipal golf course and resort hotel.是引起经济发展的原因么？也许是其他因素，比如自身经济条件的改善
3. revenues have risen by 30 percent， 影响税收的原因多方面
4. 2年前的情况不能推到现在

26"For the past five years, Mr. Charles Schade has been the music director at Steel City High School, and during that time the school band from Steel City High has won three regional band competitions. In addition, the quality of the music rehearsal facilities and musical instruments at Steel City High has improved markedly over the past five years. Because of such successes at Steel City High, the Saluda school board should hire Mr. Schade to plan and direct the general music education programs for the entire Saluda school system."
1 错误因果，尽管在这五年内，the school band from Steel City High赢了three regional band competitions，但不一定是Mr. Charles的功劳，也许是他们的基础本来就很好，也许是他们的学生很努力，也许是这个学校对乐队很重视，给与了很多帮助···
2考虑问题不全面，不一定是Mr. Charles成为the music director 后，the quality of the music rehearsal facilities and musical instruments at Steel City High has improved markedly Changing the director and planner of music education is only one of them.其它因素 如课的多少，乐器好坏
3 错误类比，两个学校有很多异同，再者  一个好的director不一定是个好的教育者



27 The following appeared as part of a memo from the president of Automate, a company that manufactures automobiles.
"It has come to my attention that Sparks, Inc., the manufacturing company that just moved into our state, is advertising job openings at salaries that are twice as high as those paid to our experienced assembly-line workers. Some of our employees have already left to work for Sparks. In order to keep our best staff, we must pay them salaries equal to those Sparks pays its employees. Otherwise we will continue to lose employees in the future, because Sparks must staff the additional new plants that it plans to build in the state."
1. 只是因为S公司钱多，是不能推出一些人Some of our employees have already left to work for Sparks。不能表示好的员工的流失，也许走的都是仅仅是熟练工人。
2. 而且走的原因只是因为薪水么，也许只是想换个环境或是找到一个离家近的地方。也许是真正的好员工不一定是为利是从，而且他们会考虑工作满意度，他们到对方单位的职位等等
3. 就算要留住好员工，不一定只是给他们涨工资，可能有其他方式，例如给他们更多的休假，更舒适的工作环境等····


28.The following is a memo from the superintendent of the Mylar school district. "A recent six-month study, in which breakfast was made available at school for 100 schoolchildren ages five to twelve, found that children on the breakfast plan were less likely than other children to be absent from or late for school. Clearly, eating breakfast before school plays a role in reducing student absenteeism and tardiness. It is also well known that children who regularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in school. Therefore, in order to reduce absenteeism and tardiness and to improve academic performance in all of Mylar's elementary and secondary schools, we should provide breakfasts for all students before each school day."
1. 攻击样本，6个月时间不够长，100学生数量不够，没有提供相对比值，如果这100个学生只占到当地总数的千分之一，那样本根本不具有说服力。
2 不能因为这些参加了早餐计划的人不迟到就推出吃早餐有助于减少学生旷课，也许他们不知道是因为在那段时间里他们知道自己参加的调查，因而言行变得很谨慎，所以不迟到。而吃早餐和迟到，提高成绩有无因果关系。有其他原因：离学校远，作业太多晚上休息太晚。
···
3没有证据证明吃早餐能让学生表现得好，仅仅只是based on assumption
4就算调查有意义，但不一定能推广到所有的小学和初中，年龄，课程安排等。




29. When Ida McAllister ran for mayor of Lake City four years ago, she failed to win even 30 percent of the vote. But since then, McAllister has made public her commitment to environmental causes. She would be wise, therefore, to announce her intention to close all Lake City parks to automobile traffic, thus following the example of the former mayor of Plainsville, Alecia Yu. On the recommendation of a small group of concerned citizens, Mayor Yu prohibited automobile traffic in all Plainsville parks, and therefore was credited with solving the pollution problem and improving the quality of life in Plainsville. This action would have great appeal to the citizens of Lake City, most of whom participate in the community's recycling program, and would guarantee McAllister's success in her current quest to be Lake City's new mayor. 

1．没有证据表明这样的行为受到欢迎。没有证据说明居民不希望公园对汽车开放，也没有说本城的汽车污染和汽车污染受到了居民的关注。
2．错误类比。两地的情况不一样，环境条件，空气问题有无共同点。另外A市长是在居民支持后才采取这样的决定的，现在I 如果在居民意向时贸然决定。
3．市民参加社区循环再生项目不代表他们关注环境问题，不代表他们一定支持这个项目。
4．市长竞选不是只与环保相关，改善财政，降低犯罪率。

30
1．机场和火车站人数的增加不代表旅游的人数增加，可能是商务原因，或是本地人。
2．就算是游客多，也不一定是公园和博物馆的原因。可能是其他景点吸引游客。没有说明这两个景点吸引了多少游客。
3．没有说明这两个项目需要拨款，可能资金已经够了。拨款说明经营有问题，盈利没有保证。