Argument提纲 =So What=小组第3次作业 by fengrui129

fengrui129UID: 2639927

31. The following appeared in the editorial section of a newsmagazine. "Some states are creating new laws that restrict the use of handheld cell phones by drivers of automobiles. Such legislation, however, is sheer folly. Although some people with cell phones undoubtedly cause problems on the road, including serious accidents, the majority do not. Besides, problems are also caused by drivers who are distracted by any number of other activities, from listening to the radio to disciplining children. Since there is no need to pass legislation restricting these and other such activities, it follows that there is no need to restrict people's freedom to use a device that they find convenient-or helpful in emergencies." 1 大多数人不会出事故，并不表示不用立法。还是会有一部分人出事故，如果整体基数很大的话，拿出事故的人会是很多的
2 The author fails to confirm that traffic accidents are more often caused by other activities rather than done the using of hand held cell phones while driving.
3并不防碍紧急情况使用

argu32

TOPIC: ARGUMENT32 - Until recently, people in Hiparia did most of their shopping by driving to shopping malls. They are beginning, however, to do more of their shopping by ordering merchandise from mail-order catalogs and the Internet. These purchases are delivered to them by mail or by a delivery service. For many purchases, Hiparians no longer need to drive to and from shopping malls; there will therefore be a resulting reduction in the consumption of vehicle fuel in Hiparia.
他们开始用邮购的， 但不代表他们会马上放弃他们去开车购物的习惯。人们对邮寄方式购物是否满意，是否可以买到所需的商品，是否更便宜。不一定会取代原有购物方式。
1.
2. 错误的假设推出错误的结论。就算他们真的减少去开车购物的次数，也不意味着源量消耗的减少。他们也许腾出来更多空余时间用车去郊游，访亲拜友，不一定会减少。
3. 他们购物by mail or by a delivery service， 这些运送机构一样需要交通工具来递送。自然不会从整体降低能源消耗量。



33The following report appeared in an archaeology journal.& H1 e5 ^  v% K8 w  Z  d7 ]6 k0 a, U. ~9 C4 u! The discovery of distinctively shaped ceramic pots at various prehistoric sites scattered over a wide area has led archaeologists to ask how the pots were spread. Some believe the pot makers migrated to the various sites and carried the pots along with them; others believe the pots were spread by trade and their makers remained in one place. Now, analysis of the bones of prehistoric human skeletons can settle the debate: high levels of a certain metallic element contained in various foods are strongly associated with people who migrated to a new place after childhood. Many of the bones found near the pots at a few sites showed high levels of the metallic element. Therefore, it must be that the pots were spread by migration, not trade."
在广泛区域分散分布的很多史前遗迹发现的形状独特的陶壶导致考古学家提出疑问：这些壶是如何流传的？有些人相信壶的制造者迁移到别的地区并把壶随之带来；另一些人相信壶是通过贸易流传的，而它们的制造者仍然留在一个地方。现在，对于史前人类骨骼的分析可以解决这个争论：在多种食物中都含有的某种金属元素的高含量与那些成年后移居到新地方的人有很高的关联性。在一些遗迹的壶附近发现的很多骨头都显示出这种金属元素的高含量。因此，这些壶肯定是通过迁移而不是贸易来流传的
1， 壶的拥有者不一定是制造者。也可能就是因为贸易而使壶出现在不同地方
2． 有关联不一定有必然的因果关系。骨头在某个地方不代表就居住在那，可能是狩猎，远行。
3． 其他地方的壶可能不是这些人传播的。只调查了一个地方。

34. Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calcium, substances essential for building and maintaining bones. Many people therefore believe that a diet rich in dairy products can help prevent osteoporosis, a disease in which the bones weaken significantly with age and that is linked to both environmental and genetic factors. But a long-term study of a large number of people has found that those who have consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study. Since bone fractures are a symptom of osteoporosis, this study result shows that a diet rich in dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk of osteoporosis.


1调查显示经常喝奶的人反而更容易骨折，调查可靠吗？没有相关数据也无相关比值，难以信服。还有调查对象，要全是老年人怎么办
3 就算他们容易骨折，一定是喝牛奶引起的么，也许是由他们不健康的生活方式，吃了别的东西而引起的，而不是仅仅由于喝牛奶，

4 无根据因果，就算这些人容易骨折但也不一定会导致骨质疏松。其他因素导致骨质疏松也许是基因啊，环境啊，而他们在这种情况下骨折和骨质疏松毫无关系。



35. The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia.

"Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods. With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia."


1.，调查的可靠性，也许并不是因为服用了此类药物，需要提供详细信息佐证
2
作为食品添加剂而使用此药物能减少头痛么？第一，可能有头痛患者没有报告，第二，其他因素导致头痛病减少：人们生活更健康，医学发达了，环境好了，饮食好了。

3 就算能治，不能推出Mentia居民患头痛症的数量将会持续稳步下降，也许这个城市的人本来就少有人的头痛，那么数量的减少也很正常。


水杨酸酯和用来治疗头痛的药物--阿司匹林是同一类化合物。尽管很多食品天然富含水杨酸酯，过去几十年中食品加工公司仍然在食品中加入它作为防腐剂。这种水杨酸酯在商业上的使用被发现与我们为期20年研究的参加者所报告的头痛发病的平均数量下降是相关的。最近，食品加工公司发现水杨酸酯也可以被用作食品香料。根据这种水杨酸酯的新用途，我们可以预期Mentia居民患头痛症的数量将会持续稳步下降。

36. The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.

"Twenty years ago Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research proves that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture is false and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid. Because they are using the interview-centered method, my team of graduate students working in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures."
1作者最近的研究是否可靠呢？没有详细的信息，只是很笼统的一提很难让人信服。
2 无根据因果，仅仅只是因为Dr. Field 的研究结果和作者的研究结果不一致，就断定F是错的。更有可能是作者的结果错的
3 外推类，就算Dr. Field 的研究结果和现在的情况有出入
也不能说它就是错的，因为他的研究是在20年前开展的，也许那个时候是正确的，但是现在随着时间的推移而发生了一些变化，不能武断的说它的结论就是错的。
4 就算它是错的，也不能毫无根据的推出以观察为中心的试验方法是错的，更不能说参访的方法就比观察法精确，采访的时候不是每个人都愿意说实话的，他们也许在谈话中会有所顾忌隐藏自己的真实想法


37. Woven baskets characterized by a particular distinctive pattern have previously been found only in the immediate vicinity of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to have been unique to the Palean people. Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a "Palean" basket in Lithos, an ancient village across the Brim River from
Palea. The Brim River is very deep and broad, and so the ancient Paleans could only have crossed it by boat, but there is no evidence that the Paleans had boats. And boats capable of carrying groups of people and cargo were not developed until thousands of years after the Palean people disappeared. Moreover, Paleans would have had no need to cross the river-the woods around Palea are full of nuts, berries, and small game. It follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not unique to Palea.


作者武断的认为It follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not unique to Palea.
1
过河的方法有很多种不一定非得是船，也许别的方法
2 仅仅因为 Brim River is very deep and broad，而他们不具备造船的能力就认为古代村民不可能跨过去。也许若干年前，这个地方也就是一片浅滩，或许没有河，他们可以直接通过，根本不需要借用船了
3
认为 Paleans 不需要跨过河，仅仅认为他们本地有丰富的食物。但是很有可能他们去对岸out of curiosity 去挑战未知
4
就算P不过去也不一定篮子去不了L，也许是从水上飘过去的，或许是另外的人进过P地顺带把篮子带过去了，篮子在不断流传中去了L

38. The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
1 研究可靠吗？没有相关数字也没相关比值，很不精确。也不能让人信服
2 就算调查可靠，鱼消耗量大的地方与得感冒的几率真的有相关联系么。也许这和当地的生活习惯有关，他们吃的其他东西能防止他们的感冒，又或许他们得了感冒而不愿意去看医生，所以得病数字少。
3 就算吃鱼真的能减少他们得感冒的几率，未必从鱼油中提炼的营养补充品就有用，也许经过提炼等一系列过程，早就失效了
4 而得感冒与缺席率未必有直接联系，也许更多的人只是以感冒为借口来逃避出勤，所以即使他们不得感冒，还是会捏造借口而缺勤，并非使得该地缺勤率降低。

39. The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana College.

"Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni."

1 增长了百分之五十并不能一定说明远程教育很受欢迎，也许是OMNI原来参加的人数非常少，基础很小，如果这样，增长了50% 也不一定人数很多，要想知道它的可靠性，我还需要知道它的具体人数，而不是仅仅一个比值
2在同一年内，作者 establish a relationship between OMNI减少了教室和宿舍的支出 and 远程教育项目的增加，and infer that 后者是前者的原因，这其实很武断。还有其他因素的影响
3
靠远程教育解决财政问题的说法无根据，一搞远程教育花钱花钱买多媒体设备，各种仪器，维修检查费用，说不定还增加费用。
4 O的情况不一定适用于H， O和H 有很多不同点，面临的问题是否相同，师资情况，学生结构。O也许很有声誉，人们愿意上而H很无名；又有可能O 开了很多实用课程，H不行

40
1. 有机食品是否能给公司带来利润。可能公司在这方面技术和经验不足，投入成本大，没有顾客群，就会导致亏本。
2．调查的可信度，关心不代表就要买，其他因素：价格，口味，品牌等。
3．太阳城的调查：第一，品尝的人可能是因为好奇，或是因为免费，不一定想购买，而且这些人不一定是公司的客户群，第二，只表明了是水果，没有说明其他食品；第三，调查不一定值得推广。
4．地区情况不同，货源，市场要求，顾客态度，消费水平。

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关于提纲33
我找的错误也是和你一样的三个
但是改变一下批判的顺序，用两个让步是不是更好些：

1在一些地方发现这些骨头，不一定代表所有地方都能发现这些骨头
2就算是在这些有陶瓷的地方发现这些骨头，也不一定代表这些拥有人就是制造者，可能是因为贸易
3就算是制造者，也不一定是因为迁徙，有可能是因为狩猎，远征等等