[TSUBASA] 第二次作业 argument45 by Brian78

Brian78UID: 2604416

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 471
TIME: 00:55:47
DATE: 2009/6/30 10:51:40

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the decline in arctic deer population is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To support the conclusion, the arguer cites the reports from local hunters that the deer population are declining and points out at the same time the global warming have caused the sea ice to melt which make it hard for arctic deer to travel on the ice. However, after careful examination, the argument has several flaws which make it unconvincing.

Firstly, the creditability of the reports from local hunters is doubtful. It is possible that the hunters can see less and less arctic deer only because they have not found them rather than the deer populations are declining. It is also possible that the hunters do not tell the truth deliberately in order to obtain more support from the government or to call the attention of the public to protect arctic deer. So the reports from local hunters are not convincing.

Secondly, the author says the global warming has caused the sea ice to melt which I think is remained to be proved ulteriorly. Whether the ice is to melt or not is based on the level of the global warming. For example, the ice of -1 degrees is surely going to melt if made 10 degrees warmer, but the ice of -100 degrees will not melt made 10 degrees warmer. Furthermore, even if their are regions where ice are melting, the ice in Canada's arctic region is not surly to melt because its special geography condition.

Moreover, I notice that the arctic actually do not need to travel on the ice all the time but only some of the year. So even though the global warming will make the ice melt in some time of a year but the temperature must have not be high enough to make the ice stay thawy all the year. Thus the ice melting will not destroy the arctic deer's age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.

Actually, the decline in arctic deer can also be attributable to many other reasons such as the excessive hunting these years or the unitary climate change as the earth grows or the environmental pollution. In addition, it is also probably due to the destroy of the ozonosphere which cause the harmful ultraviolet radiation go through the atmosphere directly which may hurt the arctic deer. So it can be asserted the decline of the deer is only the result of global warming.

To sum up, the conclusion made in this argument is not well reasoned. To make it more persuasive, the arguer should provide more evidence concerning the ice in Canada's arctic region is melting and take more of the other factors that could cause the deer decline into consideration.

Brian78UID: 2604416

RETROSPECT
TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the decline in arctic deer population is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To support the conclusion, the arguer cites the reports from local hunters that the deer population are declining and points out at the same time the global warming have caused the sea ice to melt which make it hard for arctic deer to travel on the ice. However, after careful examination, the argument has several flaws which make it unconvincing.

Firstly, the creditability of the reports from local hunters is doubtful. It is possible that the hunters can see less and less arctic deer only because they have not found them rather than the deer populations are declining. It is also possible that the hunters do not tell the truth deliberately in order to obtain more support from the government or to call the attention of the public to protect arctic deer. So the reports from local hunters are not convincing.

Secondly, the author says the global warming has caused the sea ice to melt which I think is remained to be proved ulteriorly. Whether the ice is to melt or not is based on the level of the global warming. For example, the ice of -1 degrees is surely going to melt if made 10 degrees warmer, but the ice of -100 degrees will not melt made 10 degrees warmer. Furthermore, even if their are regions where ice are melting, the ice in Canada's arctic region is not surly to melt because of its special geography condition.

Moreover, I notice that the arctic actually do not need to travel on the ice all the time but only some of the year. So even though the global warming will make the ice melt in some time of a year but the temperature must have not be high enough to make the ice stay thawy all the year. Thus the ice melting will not destroy the arctic deer's age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.

Actually, the decline in arctic deer can also be attributable to many other reasons such as the excessive hunting these years or the unitary climate change as the earth grows or the environmental pollution. In addition, it is also probably due to the destroy of the ozonosphere which cause the harmful ultraviolet radiation to go through the atmosphere directly to hurt the arctic deer.

To sum up, the conclusion made in this argument is not well reasoned. To make it more persuasive, the arguer should provide more evidences concerning why the ice in Canada's arctic region is melting and take more of the other factors that could cause the deer to decline into consideration.