【喜洋洋杀G大队】lollipops80, 7.12 arg 161 第9楼

lollipops80UID: 2619379

7.6

arg53. Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

In this argument, the author concludes that it is the increasing melatonin which causes the shyness of the infants and gives a further influence in the development of them. To support this point of view, the author gives the supporting evidence that a group of 25 shy infants are born in early autumn and moreover, they considered that they are shy when grown up to teenagers. At first glance, the argument seems so what reasonable and reliable, but close scrutiny reveals several fatal probelms in reasoning procession and therefore the conclusion is tenable.

Firstly, the author concludes that the infants conceived in ealy autumn are shy depending on the survey of just 25 infants. Yet, the author offers no evidence to substantiate that the group is representative and sufficient for the early autumn conceived infants. Apparently, the poll is too small and no evidence shows that all these infants are from different religions or in different conditions. So it is not confident to give a judgment to all the infants conceived in early autumn with the group's performance.

Secondly, even assuming the babies conceived in early autumn are shy, the author assumes groundlessly that it is the increasing of melatonin that leads to the performance of the infants. He ignores much more possible factors such as nutrition, sports, eating habits, working conditions, which can also influence the development of infants and create the shyness inclination. Without ruling out these possible factors, the author can not conclude that the increasing of melatonin is responsible for their shyness.

Thirdly, even assuming that the infants' shyness is the result of increasing of melatonin, the author concludes too hastily that it is also the reason for shyness in teenage. There can be many factors that result in shyness such as heredity, family influence, social culture. The eastern people are more shy than the western people. Without account for these elements, the author can not convince me that the shyness continued in development is caused by the increasing in melatonin when they are infants.

To sum up, the author can not get a convincing conclusion as it stands. To strengthen it, the author must get a sufficient survey poll and provide more concrete relationship between the shyness of the infants and the increasing of melatonin.

dingyi0311UID: 2627919

In this argument, the author concludes that it is the increasing melatonin which causes the shyness of the infants and gives a further influence in the development of them. To support this point of view, the author gives the supporting evidence that a group of 25 shy infants are born in early autumn（好像上面写的在夏初怀孕不是在夏初出生啊） and moreover, they considered that they are shy when grown up to teenagers. At first glance, the argument seems so what reasonable and reliable, but close scrutiny reveals several fatal probelms in reasoning procession and therefore the conclusion is tenable（是untenable）.

Firstly, the author concludes that the infants conceived in ealy autumn are shy depending on the survey of just 25 infants. Yet, the author offers no evidence to substantiate that the group is representative and sufficient for the early autumn conceived infants（应该是对研究来说而不是对这些婴儿来说吧）. Apparently, the poll is too small and no evidence shows that all these infants are from different religions or in different conditions. So it is not confident to give a judgment to all the infants conceived in early autumn with the group's performance.

Secondly, even assuming the babies conceived in early autumn are shy, the author assumes groundlessly that it is the increasing of melatonin that leads to the performance of the infants. He ignores much more possible factors such as nutrition, sports, eating habits, working conditions, which can also influence the development of infants and create the shyness inclination. Without ruling out these possible factors, the author can not conclude that the increasing of melatonin is responsible for their shyness.

Thirdly, even assuming that the infants' shyness is the result of increasing of melatonin, the author concludes too hastily that it is also the reason for shyness in teenage. There can be many factors that result in shyness such as heredity, family influence, and social culture. The eastern people are more shy than the western people. Without account for these elements, the author cannot convince me that the shyness continued in development is caused by the increasing in melatonin when they are infants.

To sum up, the author cannot get a convincing conclusion as it stands. To strengthen it, the author must get a sufficient survey poll and provide more concrete relationship between the shyness of the infants and the increasing of melatonin
除了第二段可以再加强外， 其他的地方都还可以拉^_^

lollipops80UID: 2619379

7.7

Arg 65: The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

In this argument, the president of the cheese store claim that it’s wise for the store to stop stocking imported cheeses and focus mainly on domestic cheeses. To support his point of view, he gives out the supporting evidence that the best selling kinds in new stores are domestic ones and a survey by magazines shows a increasing preference for domestics cheeses. The president also point out a fact that the imported cheese have a extra cost of inventory while domestics cheeses do not have. At first glance, the reasoning seems reasonable and reliable, but close scrutiny reveals several logical fallacies and therefore the conclusion is questionable.
Firstly, the mere fact that five best seller in newly open stores are al domestic ones can not help to get the conclusion that all over United States domestic cheeses will be the best sellers. No evidence are given to show that the newly opened stores are good representatives of all the stores over the country. And it is totally possible that all the news stores are opened in religions where people love to eat domestic cheeses while in other districts the circumstance is quite different. Without ruling out these possibilities, we can not get a conclusion that domestic cheeses are best sellers in the country.
Secondly, another supporting evidence of the popularity about domestic cheeses is the survey conducted by Cheese of the World magazine, which is also doubtful as we are not clear about the background of the sample in the survey. The subscribers of magazine are a specific group which might have some traits with respect to the magazine. They might be the group which prefers domestic cheeses than imported ones because of the advertisement by domestic cheese producers in magazines. Without knowing the subscribers eating habits we can not have a confident judgment by the survey result.
Thirdly, even assuming that domestic cheeses are the best sellers in the country, there is no evidence that they will be more profitable than imported ones. The president mentioned the inventory cost of the imported cheeses and on the other side he ignores that domestic cheeses also have the inventory cost. Moreover, it is quite possible that with the higher cost, the imported cheeses have higher prices and higher profits. So although their sales are not as good as the imported ones, they do make more money for stores.
To sum up, the president can not get a convincing conclusion as it stands. To strengthen it, he must provide sufficient information about the popularity of the domestic cheeses and profitability advantages of them compared with the imported ones.

jahsonUID: 2628322

七月六
In this argument, the author concludes that it is the increasing melatonin which（that） causes the shyness of the infants and gives a further influence in the development of them. To support this point of view, the author gives the supporting evidence that a group of 25 shy infants are born in early autumn and moreover, they considered that they are shy when grown up to teenagers（时态）. At first glance, the argument seems so what reasonable and reliable, but close scrutiny reveals several fatal probelms in reasoning procession and therefore the conclusion is tenable.

Firstly, the author concludes that the infants conceived in ealy autumn are shy depending on the survey of just 25 infants. Yet, the author offers no evidence to substantiate that the group is representative and sufficient for the early autumn conceived infants. Apparently, the poll（sample） is too small and no evidence shows that all these infants are from different religions or in different conditions. So it is not confident（觉得不适合） to give a judgment to all the infants conceived in early autumn with the group's performance.

Secondly, even assuming the babies conceived in early autumn are shy, the author assumes groundlessly that it is the increasing of melatonin that leads to the performance of the infants. He ignores much more possible factors such as nutrition, sports, eating habits, working conditions, which can also influence the development of infants and create the shyness inclination. Without ruling out these possible factors, the author can not conclude that the increasing of melatonin is responsible for their shyness.

Thirdly, even assuming that the infants' shyness is the result of increasing of melatonin, the author concludes too hastily that it is also the reason for shyness in teenage. There can be many factors that result in shyness such as heredity, family influence, social culture. The eastern people are more shy than the western people. Without account for these elements, the author can not convince me that the shyness continued in development is caused by the increasing in melatonin when they are infants.

To sum up, the author can not get a convincing conclusion as it stands. To strengthen it, the author must get a sufficient survey poll and provide more concrete relationship between the shyness of the infants and the increasing of melatonin.
觉得攻击得挺好的
时态有混乱
1# lollipops80

lollipops80UID: 2619379

七月八日
Arg 76：The following appeared as part of an article in a health and beauty magazine.
"A group of volunteers participated in a study of consumer responses to the new Luxess face cream. Every morning for a month, they washed their faces with mild soap and then applied Luxess. At the end of that month, most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt. Thus it appears that Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin."

In this argument, the author concludes that the new Luxess face cream is effective in improving the condition of facial skin. To support his point of view, he cite a study result that the participants felt their skin condition improved after using the cream for one month. At the first glimpse, the reasoning seems reliable and convincing, but close scrutiny reveals several severe logical fallacies and largely weaken the credibility.

Fist of all, participants' judgment about their skin condition by feeling and appearance of the skin is not necessarily correct. Their skin may look gracious but is totally the same as it was one month ago. It is hard for ordinary people to judge a change of skin from the outside. Only by some technological methods can we elaborate the improvement of the skin condition.

Even assuming that the skin condition is truly improved in one month, the author assumes groundlessly that using Luxess cream is the reason for the improvement. The only causal relationship between them is that using cream happened before the improvement of skin condition. The author ignores a series of explanations for the improvement. It is quite possible that the usage of mild soap caused that improvement. Without ruling out other possible facts, the author can not conclude that the usage of Luxess cream is responsible for the improvement of skin condition.

Furthermore, the author uses the result of a study in which the background information of participants is not given. If all the participants in the study are young, which can largely promote the effectiveness of the products, the absorption of the cream will be good and thorough,. And more factors may influence the efficiency of the cream such as weather, living habits. When the representation of the participants is not verified, the result of the study is suspicious.

To sum up, the author can not get a convincing conclusion as it stands. To strengthen it, he must give out much more background information about the participants in study. Moreover, he had better give a better explain about the causal relationship between the usage of the cream and the improvement of the skin condition.

pinokuUID: 2435028

Arg 76：The following appeared as part of an article in a health and beauty magazine.
"A group of volunteers participated in a study of consumer responses to the new Luxess face cream. Every morning for a month, they washed their faces with mild soap and then applied Luxess. At the end of that month, most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt. Thus it appears that Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin."

In this argument, the author concludes that the new Luxess face cream is effective in improving the condition of facial skin. To support his point of view, he cite a study result that the participants felt their skin condition improved after using the cream for one month. At the first glimpse, the reasoning seems reliable and convincing, but close scrutiny reveals several severe logical fallacies and largely weaken the credibility.（呵呵，之前也准备用这句来着，幸好没有用这个模板）

Fist of all, participants' judgment about their skin condition by feeling and appearance of the skin is not necessarily correct. Their skin may look gracious but is totally the same as it was one month ago. It is hard for ordinary people to judge a change of skin from the outside. Only by some technological methods can we elaborate the improvement of the skin condition.

Even assuming that the skin condition is truly improved in one month, the author assumes前面也是assume 换一个吧 groundlessly that using Luxess cream is the reason for the improvement. The only causal relationship between them is that using cream happened before the improvement of skin condition. The author ignores a series of explanations for the improvement. It is quite possible that the usage of mild soap caused that improvement. Without ruling out other possible facts, the author can not conclude that the usage of Luxess cream is responsible for the improvement of skin condition.

Furthermore, the author uses the result of a study in which the background information of participants is not given. If all the participants in the study are young, which can largely promote the effectiveness of the products, the absorption of the cream will be good and thorough,. And more factors may influence the efficiency of the cream such as weather, living habits. When the representation？representative of the participants is not verified, the result of the study is suspicious.

To sum up, the author can not get a convincing conclusion as it stands. To strengthen it, he must give out much more background information about the participants in study. Moreover, he had better give a better explain about the causal relationship between the usage of the cream and the improvement of the skin condition.

思路清晰。语言问题不大。但是我算了下字数，359，不是很多。你可以每点再展开一些，这样比较有力，字数也上去了。

lollipops80UID: 2619379

七月九日
argument 127
127. The vice president for human resources at Climpson Industries sent the following recommendation to the company's president

"In an effort to improve our employees' productivity, we should implement electronic monitoring of employees' Internet use from their workstations. Employees who use the Internet from their workstations need to be identified and punished if we are to reduce the number of work hours spent on personal or recreational activities, such as shopping or playing games. By installing software to detect employees' Internet use on company computers, we can prevent employees from wasting time, foster a better
work ethic at Climpson, and improve our overall profits."  

In this argument, the vice president makes a conclusion that it will benefit the company and improve the overall profits if they begin to monitoring the employs' workstation. To support his point of view, he reasons that with the help of detecting software the employers will reduce their time in personal affairs and entertainment during work time. At the first glance, this conclusion seems reasonable and reliable, but close scrutiny reveals several severe problems and therefore the conclusion is tenable.

First of all, the vice president argues that employers who use internet should be identified and punished in assuming that they doing personal affairs or entertain themselves through internet. However, there is no background information or professional report to show the usage of internet by employers. It is quite possible that they use internet for the job demanding and it is necessary for them to search for the relevant information through internet. Without giving the sufficient evidence about the inadequate using of internet by employers, the vice president can not get this arbitrary conclusion.

Even assuming the employers do use internet to do some personal affairs and relax themselves, the vice president can not give a surly judgement that using internet will influence their daily work. On the contrary, some kinds of recreation can help to relax and then continue with work in a better situation. And for the same reason, without using internet and working all day may cause more errors and have a negative effect.

Furthermore, the vice presicent assumes that the employers wiil either work or use internet to wasting time. However, he provides no reason for imposing such a either/or choice between them. There might be more things can do by employers. For example, they can just have a rest without doing or thinking of anything. That will be the most direct way in wasting time and have no relevance to the internet, which will also influence the working efficiency but can be controlled by electronic monitoring. Moreover, the monitoring probably will irritate employers and makes them feel uncomfortable, which may highly influence their working attitude and performances.

To sum up, the vice president can not get a convincing conclusion as it stands. To strengthen it, he had better give out more substantial evidences such as the employers use internet for personal reasons which directly leads to the reducing of time to work.

lollipops80UID: 2619379

七月十日
In this argument, the author gives out a conclusion that the local council of Mason City should raise budget to improve the publicly land along the Mason river. To support his point of view, the author give out a supporting evidence that the agency taking charge of the river declared a plan to clean up the river. Furthermore, there is survey result which shows that the local people love to take part in water sport. At first glance, the conclusion is reasonable and reliable. But close scrutiny reveals several severe problem and therefore weaken the conclusion's credibility.

Firstly, the mere fact that agency declared a plan to clean up the Mason river can not directly lead to a perfect result in promoting the water quality. To clean up a river is not a short term work. Just having the plan is far from the whole accomplishment of the plan. And moreover we can not judge whether the water quality can be promoted without knowing the contents of the plan. It is quite possible that the river only have a clean appearance while the water is still aseptic.

Even assuming that the river and the water quality have been improved, the autor concludes groundlessly that the people who are favorit of water sports in Mason will take part in the sports along the river. There might be other water sports places for the sports lovers to go and they have bring up a custom to go to the usual place. With the old ideas towards the dirty river, to persuade them to change and  go the river bank might be quite hard. Without ruling out these factors, the author is quite arbitrary to give the conclusion.

Moreover, the author used a survey result which shows that water sports is the favorite sport item in Mason. But no specific information can be find to elaborate the representation of the poll in the survey. It is quite possible that all the people in the survey are young and water sports might be more suitable for them than for the old. Without knowing the age, region, healthy condition and many other background information, the author can not get a convincing survey result which can be referred to in the article.

To sum up, the conclusion is not so convincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the author might be give out a more reliable survey result about the popularity of the water sports in Mason. Furthermore, he can show the changing ideas people have towards the river and the final results of the improvement in river especially in water quality.
共计435个字，达标，用时35-37分。时间上继续抓紧点，就达标啦啦啦

lollipops80UID: 2619379

七月十二日
Argument 161: In a study of reading habits of Leeville citizens conducted by the University of Leeville, most respondents said they preferred literary classics as reading material. However, a follow-up study conducted by the same researchers found that the type of book most frequently checked out of each of the public libraries in Leeville was the mystery novel. Therefore, it can be concluded that the respondents in the first study had misrepresented their reading habits.
在一次由Leeville大学所举行的关于Leeville居民阅读习惯的调查中，多数被访者说他们倾向于阅读古典文学。然而，由相同的研究人员随后进行的调查发现Leeville所有公共图书馆中最经常被借阅的书是神秘小说。因此，我们可以得出结论，第一次调查的被访者错误地表达了他们的阅读习惯。

In this argument, the author concludes that the study result that students preferred literary classics is incorrect in representation of all students. To support his point of view, he gives out the following study result which says  most frequently borrowed books in libraries of Leeville are the mystery novels. At first glance, the conclusion seems reasonable and reliable. But close scrutiny disclose several fatal problems so that the conclusion is tenable.

Firstly, the mere fact that the frequently borrowed books in every library are mystery novels does not lead to a belief that these citizens reads more mystery novels than literary classics. As we all know, library is just one way in which we get our reading materials, especially when the web reading is so convenient. They might buy literary classics and read them at home or just download the e-edition of these books in the internet and read them in desktops. Without considering these possibilities, the author can not convince me that their favorite books are not literary classics.

Secondly, the respondents in the first study might be not all the citizens in Leeville, which are the poll of the second study. It is quite possible that people in the first study poll have a inclination to read literary classics while the others in Leeville's favorite are mystery novels. Since we do not have any idea of how big the poll of first study is and what is the respondents' percentage in Leeville's citizen, we can not get an effective conclusion that the respondents had misrepresented of their reading habits.

Thirdly, even assuming that the respondents in the first study are representative of all the citizens in Leeville, it does not mean that the book most frequently borrowed are also the literary classics. Since they all love to read these classical books, the most possible situation is that they have bought them already and put them besides their beds. So there is totally no use to borrow from library. Just for books like mystery novels which will be read only once, they will borrow from library.

To sum up, there so many logical flaws in the reasoning and we can not get a credible conclusion on it. To strengthen it, the author must rule out the possibilities mentioned above and give more persuasive information.
思路补充：
借mystery多，但不一定fond of mystery：1、可能图书馆里面classic太少，导致借的少；2、也可能第二次调查时间短，而且正好流行mystery novel，所以借的多了；3、此外，神话小说也可能是classic。

385字，45分钟，觉得此题有点难，考虑攻击点考虑好久。而且还漏了。。。。

jahsonUID: 2628322

In this argument, the author gives out a conclusion that the local council of Mason City should raise budget to improve the publicly land along the Mason river. To support his point of view, the author give out a supporting evidence that the agency taking charge of the river declared a plan to clean up the river. Furthermore, there is ？ survey result which shows that the local people love to take part in water sport. At first glance, the conclusion is reasonable and reliable. But close scrutiny reveals several severe problem and therefore weaken（注意句子主语） the conclusion's credibility.

Firstly, the mere fact that agency declared a plan to clean up the Mason river can not directly lead to a perfect（为什么用这个） result in promoting the water quality. To clean up a river is not a short term work. Just having the plan is far from the whole accomplishment of the plan. And moreover we can not judge whether the water quality can be promoted without knowing the contents of the plan. It is quite possible that the river only have a clean appearance while the water is still aseptic.

Even assuming that the river and the water quality have been improved, the autor concludes groundlessly that the people who are favorit of water sports in Mason will take part in the sports along the river. There might be other water sports places for the sports lovers to go and they have bring up a custom to go to the usual place. With the old ideas towards the dirty river, to persuade them to change and  go the river bank might be quite hard. Without ruling out these factors, the author is quite arbitrary to give the conclusion.

Moreover, the author used a survey result which shows that water sports is the favorite sport item in Mason. But no specific information can be find to elaborate the representation of the poll in the survey. It is quite possible that all the people in the survey are young and water sports might be more suitable for them than for the old. Without knowing the age, region, healthy condition and many other background information, the author can not get a convincing survey result which can be referred to in the article.

To sum up, the conclusion is not so convincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the author might be give out a more reliable survey result about the popularity of the water sports in Mason. Furthermore, he can show the changing ideas people have towards the river and the final results of the improvement in river especially in water quality.

恩觉得不错

8# lollipops80

jahsonUID: 2628322

In this argument, the author concludes that the study result that students preferred literary classics is incorrect in representation of all students. To support his point of view, he gives out the following study result which says  most frequently borrowed books in libraries of Leeville are the mystery novels. At first glance, the conclusion seems reasonable and reliable. But close scrutiny disclose several fatal problems so that the conclusion is tenable（少了个not？）.

Firstly, the mere fact that the frequently borrowed books in every library are mystery novels does not lead to a belief that these citizens reads more mystery novels than literary classics. As we all know, library is just one way in which we get our reading materials, especially when the web reading is so convenient. They might buy literary classics and read them at home or just download the e-edition of these books in the internet and read them in desktops. Without considering these possibilities, the author can not convince me that their favorite books are not literary classics.

Secondly, the respondents in the first study might be not all the citizens in Leeville, which are the poll of the second study. It is quite possible that people in the first study poll have a inclination to read literary classics while the others in Leeville's favorite are mystery novels. Since we do not have any idea of how big the poll of first study is and what is the respondents' percentage in Leeville's citizen, we can not get an effective conclusion that the respondents had misrepresented of their reading habits.

Thirdly, even assuming that the respondents in the first study are representative of all the citizens in Leeville, it does not mean that the book most frequently borrowed are also the literary classics. Since they all love to read these classical books, the most possible situation is that they have bought them already and put them besides their beds. So there is totally no use to borrow from library. Just for books like mystery novels which will be read only once, they will borrow from library.

To sum up, there so many logical flaws in the reasoning and we can not get a credible conclusion on it. To strengthen it, the author must rule out the possibilities mentioned above and give more persuasive information.

我攻击的是研究本身的问题
我觉得攻击时有时候可以分个主次

9# lollipops80

lollipops80UID: 2619379

七月十三：
Aru162:.A recent study shows that people living on the continent of North America suffer 9 times more chronic fatigue and 31 times more chronic depression than do people living on the continent of Asia. Interestingly, Asians, on average, eat 20 grams of soy per day, whereas North Americans eat virtually none. It turns out that soy contains phytochemicals called isoflavones, which have been found to possess disease-preventing properties. Thus, North Americans should consider eating soy on a regular basis as a way of preventing fatigue and depression.
最近一次研究显示居住在北美大陆的人患慢性疲劳和慢性抑郁症的数量分别为居住在亚洲大陆居民的9倍和31倍。有趣的是，亚洲人平均每天食用20克大豆，而北美人几乎不吃。人们发现大豆含有一种具有抗病功效的植物化合物单黄酮。因此，北美人应该考虑经常食用大豆作为预防疲劳和抑郁的方法。

In this argument, the author gives a conclusion that the North Americans should take soy in daily meals for prevention of fatigue and depression. To support this point of view, the author gives the evidence such as Asian citizens’ eating habit which includes 20 grams of soy in daily meals. Furthermore, some element contained in soy called isoflavones has been found effective in preventing diseases. At first glance, the reasoning sounds logical and the conclusion seems reliable, but close scrutiny discloses several questionable assumptions which lead to the incredibility of the conclusion.

First of all, the mere fact that soy contains isoflavones does not give the result that eating soy everyday can prevent any kind of disease. We are ignorant about the effect isoflavones will have on all sorts of diseases and no background information about it is given. It is quite possible that isoflavones has different influence on different kind of diseases. Since there is no elixir in the world, we can not give too much anticipation on isoflavones to prevent two different diseases. Without knowing the effectiveness of prevention on these two diseases, we can not give a reasonable suggestion.

Secondly, even assuming that isoflavones in soy do help to prevent these two chronic diseases, no evidence renders hat it is the eating habit of soy leading to less chronic fatigue and chronic depression among the Asian. The author give a unverified causal relationship between eating soy everyday and the lower rate of chronic fatigue and chronic depression. It is quite possible that some other customs, daily habits and eating habit that reduce the rate of these disease. Without ruling out the other possibilities, it will be arbitrary to give out such a conclusion. Moreover, for the same reason, there is no necessarily causal relationship between not eating soy everyday and higher rate of these two diseases. So it might be some other reasons which bring about the diseases such as the weather, atmosphere condition, and the work pressure.

Thirdly, it is quite possible that the amount of isoflavones in soy is so small that it can almost be neglected as a kind of medicine. Chronic Fatigue and chronic depression are two kinds of diseases that they need the formal therapy from doctors. Of course, the eating habits can help in some extent, but we had better take doctor’s advice. Every patient has a unique condition. It’s quite possible that taking too much soy in daily meals will cause other diseases.

To sum up, the conclusion is not so convincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the author had better give a substantial evidence to elaborate the causal relationship between taking isoflavones and effectiveness of prevention in two diseases.
451字，45分

lollipops80UID: 2619379

七月十四
Argument 169：The following appeared in a letter from a department chairperson to the president of Pierce University.
"Some studies conducted by Bronston College, which is also located in a small town, reveal that both male and female professors are happier living in small towns when their spouses are also employed in the same geographic area. Therefore, in the interest of attracting the most gifted teachers and researchers to our faculty and improving the morale of our entire staff, we at Pierce University should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we hire. Although we cannot expect all offers to be accepted or to be viewed as an ideal job offer, the money invested in this effort will clearly be well spent because, if their spouses have a chance of employment, new professors will be more likely to accept our offers."
对于同样位于小城市的Bronston学院所作的一些研究发现，不论男性或女性教授，当他们的配偶在相同的城市有工作时，就更乐于在这些小城市生活。因此，为了吸引最有天分的教师和研究人员加入我们的员工队伍并提高我们员工的士气，我们Pierce大学应该为每一个我们所雇佣的新员工的配偶提供就业机会。尽管我们并不期望所有就业机会都会被接受或被看作是理想的工作，我们在这项努力上的投入显然是值得的，因为如果新教授的配偶有就业机会，他们将更乐于在我们学校就职。
提纲：
1、充分性：给了配偶offer他们未必肯接受，可能其他地区offer更加诱人。
2、充分性：即使给了offer接受了教授happy了，未必就肯留在小城市，因为没发展前景，薪水等。
3、错误类比：BC在的小城市和PU所在的可能有不同的情况。BC的城市经济更加发达，PU不发达。
In this argument, the author gives an assertion that it is wise for the Pierce Universtiy(PU) to make investment in helping professor's spouses find jobs in local area. To support his point of view, he give a study result conducted by another educational structure, Bronston College(BC), which shows that professors feel much happier with their spouses working in the same area. At first glance, the reasoning seems persuasive and reliable, however close scrutiny reveals several logical fallacies and weaken the conclusion's credibility.
First of all, even if PU invests in finding jobs for spouses of professors in local area, the result can be poor. Everyone has his or her speciality and to find a suitable job is not so easy nowadays. Such a demanding task for all the spouses is hard to accomplish with all the spouses' satisfaction. Salary, working condition, promotion provision are all inmportant factors in consideration. How can they abandon a superior job in another town and get a poor one in local area just for staying with their spouses?
Secondly, granted the fact that the program can help professors' spouses find a satisfactory job, it can not lead to a successful career of the professor themselves in PU. Many factors can affect result of the research and teaching in PU. The experimental condition, the cultrue atmosphere and the study morale all play significant roles in accomplishment, not just their personal mood. Considering of all these, it is quite possible that professors will take offers from other universities, whichi provide more oppotunities in their professional fields.
Furthermore, the author mentions that it is BC which takes this kind of method to attract more talented professors and promotes facaulty's level. However, without any background about the city two universities located in, we can not conclude that the method will alsobe effective in PU.It is quite possible that BC is located in a more prosperous city and its job offer is much more attactive. Without ruling out these kind of possibilities, we can not get a reliable conclusion.
To sum up, the conclusion is not so convincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the author is supposed to verify that job offer in UC's city is quite valuable and acceptance rate will be high. Moreover, more background information about UC should be given.
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