ARGUMENT65 =August Rush=小组第2次作业 yangguang

yangguang_86UID: 2414818

Argument65.The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

提纲

     1. newest store 的情况不能代表all the stores in our chain的情况 Even if the best-selling cheeses last year were from W , it did not mean domestic cheeses from other places still welcome .

    2.survey 的准确性：magazine 的subscribers 数量 回复率；地区性；preference doesn’t equal with purchase

3.the author indicts that imported cheeses can’t bring more profits.

The popularity of domestic cheeses might be benefits from the low cost but not as profitable as that of imported ones.

there is no indication that imported cheeses are short in storage perhaps that is the reason why domestic cheeses sold well .

best way ;limiting inventory 不一定带来效果，后果。

ARGUMENT65 =August Rush=小组第2次作业 by yangguang

In this memo, the president of cheese stores recommends stocking domestic cheeses
rather than imported ones to prompt profits. To support it, the president relies on a case that the five best-selling cheeses were domestic along with a survey by a magazine showing people's inclinations to buy domestic cheeses. Close scrutiny of these facts, however, revels that they lend little credible support to the recommendation.

First ,the success of selling domestic cheddar cheeses in the newest store does not necessarily indicate the popularity of domestic cheddar cheeses in the other nationwide chain stores .The president must assume that all relevant conditions involving the tastes of customers ,conventions and the like essentially resemble at different locations .However, this assumption is unwarranted .It is likely that clients in this area where runs the newest store support domestic goods and favor the tastes of cheddar cheeses in which other residents lost interests but fancied imported ones. Moreover, no evidence shows that the other kinds of domestic cheeses from places besides W are still welcome as time goes by. Maybe this year inclinations to choose cheeses reversed .Say, imported one are more attractive because of the changing varieties of flavors and styles .Any of these scenarios, if true, would cast doubt on the assumption that domestic ones sells better than imported ones.

Secondly, even if sales in other stores are following the case in the newest store, the survey by magazine is quite problematic. Unless the subscribers consist of a sufficient number of residents randomly from different areas, the survey results are not reliable to assess the preference generally .The number of samples, in itself, does not ensure representative. For example, if most of responders are from certain area and if a few

of subscribers refer their preferences, the results would no doubt suggest inclinations of a particular group, not all. Besides, the less recent the survey itself is, the less reliable the results indicate current preference. Furthermore, people’s preference may be different from their purchase .Perhaps, with the special taste, high quality; healthful imported cheeses sell better despite of the inclinations to support domestic goods. If so, the president’s assumption that sales of domestic cheeses are promising cannot hold water.

Finally, even if the survey represents the overall preference to domestic cheeses and they will fulfill into action. The president unfairly assumes that imported cheeses can’t bring more profits. However, whole profitability refers to both amount of sales and unite revenue. It is quite possible that the popularity of domestic cheeses might be benefits from the low expense but not as profitable as that of imported ones. Moreover, If imported cheeses are short in storage, perhaps which is the reason why domestic cheeses sold well in the newest store, limiting inventory especially cutting the supply of imported cheeses will have these chain stores lose original clients .For that matter, the recommendation might render it a failure in business, not to say the best way to improve profits.

In sum, the recommendation is unpersuasive as it stands. To bolster it the president must show the reliability and representation of the survey, the demand and the apply among domestic and imported ones in stores besides the cited one .The president would also bolster the recommendation by providing evidence that the newest store reflects the nationwide trends , and that this trends will continue in the foreseeable future .Finally , to better assess the argument I would need detailed revenue between the domestic and imported cheeses to decide whether such recommendation would turn a profitable one or not.

crepuscularlywUID: 2645654

改好了

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