ARGUMENT38 =August Rush=小组第3次作业 by crepuscularlyw

crepuscularlywUID: 2645654

Argument38

The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."

我们注意到一种保证可以显著减少学校和工作岗位的缺席的革新疗法。一项研究报告说在附近的East Meria，鱼的消费量很高，那里的人们每年因为治感冒而去看医生的次数只有一或两次。显然，吃较大量的鱼可以预防感冒。由于感冒是学校和单位缺席的最常见原因，我们建议每天服用Ichthaid，一种从鱼油中提炼的营养物质，作为预防感冒和减少缺席率的有效措施。

提纲

1．调查的可信度、随机性和代表性如何没有说明。
2.没有证据表明多吃鱼就可以预防感冒，而且预防感冒的有效物质就是Ichthaid。
（1）EM不易患感冒，可能另有他因，比如饮食结构或是生活习惯导致的体质的差异或者是由于所处地理环境的原因气候比较温和。喜欢吃鱼只能说明是一种生活习惯与抗感冒无直接关系。
  （2）假设鱼可以抗感冒也不代表抗感冒的物质就在鱼油中，而且就是Ichthaid.
3.没有提供数据表明cold是缺席的主要原因，无说服力。或许是另有其他愿意不想上课或上班用cold来掩饰。

In this memo, the author recommends people in EM to use Ichthaid to reduce absenteeism in school and workplaces. The better support the recommendation the author also cites a study report. I find this argument logically unconvincing in several respects.

To begin with, the author did not provide any details concerning the study report. Thus we may certainly doubt its credibility. If this report is carried out in some specific areas and only investigate small amount of people, in this way, the report itself is not representative and not credible. If the author cannot offer strong evidence to convince me of the report, the report is unwarranted and can’t lend support to the author’s recommendation. The author also assumes unfairly that Ichthaid can prevent people in WM from colds effectively. There may be other reasons for EM people’s susceptible to colds, such as the strong physique, which due to people’s diet structure and living habits. Another explanation lies in the location and climate diverse of these two places, maybe EM’s climate is milder than that of WM so that people tend not to catch colds. People in EM like to eat fish is just a living habit so that the author should not built a direct relationship between the fish and people’s capability to resist colds. Even assuming that fish can help to resist colds, it doesn’t mean the substance to resist colds is contained in the fish oil and is actually the Ichthaid. I need to know more information about what is indeed the reason of EM people’s insusceptible to cold and what is the one that really helps to resist cold in fish on the base that fish is effective in resisting colds.

Another problem with the argument is that there is no persuasive evidence to show that colds are the reason for people’s absence from school and work. Some workers or students are not feeling well to go to work or have classes, therefore they pretend to be ill, say catch colds to avoid being asked why he or she is
absent from work or school. Judge from these, if the author cannot prove that cold is the main reason for absenteeism, the author’s recommendation cannot hold water.

In sum, the recommendation is logically flawed and therefore unconvincing as it stands, to bolster it, the author should provide more information and statistics about the study report and the actual helper of the colds as well as the major reason for absenteeism.

KevinSpaceyUID: 2645771

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2009-7-20 16:23:22 上传

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