argue 45 鹿群减少，有拍必应！
------题目------The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
'Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.'
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The conclusion proves to be unconvincing in that the speaker lacks evidence in both the accurateness of the decreasing of the deer and the possibility of other alternative factors contributing to the assumptive reason for the arctic deer's population decline.
To begin with, one problem with the assumption that the number of the deer has declined is based on local hunters reports which show little statistic evidence of the population of the past and the present, and how about the declining rate. Moreover, we are not informed how the hunters draw to this assumption. It is entirely possible that the hunters might not be able to find those deer due to the creature are likely to avoid being discovered by hunters or perhaps they migrate to where else suitable to live. As a result, the number of deer may not decline. Without providing more reliable evidence of the declining, I cannot be convinced that there is the matter.
Even assuming that the arctic deer are decreasing, another problem would be that the overlapping of the recent global warming and the declining has a causal relationship. The speaker mentions that the deer live in an exclusive area with a proper temperature style. However, no more evidence shows that to extent to which the global warming has become and whether it has affected the area in which the deer are accustomed and the ice among islands has accordingly melted. The more such evidence, the more reliable the argument is. Moreover, even presuming that the ice has melted, common sense informs us that wild animals are usually to be so adaptive to the environmental surroundings that the deer might be likely to alter their age-old patterns according to the change circumstances. The unfairly asset of the cause-effect relation is dubious at best.
Last but not least, there may to other possible reasons for the assumed decline of deer instead of migration problem. In the likelihood, the hunters are totally probable to be responsible for the declining, for that is their occupation to gain the hide and venison. Also it is possible that the deer might be eaten by their natural enemy like artic wolves or bears. Or perhaps, the graze plants are scant for feeding the deer due to climate changes. In short, the speaker ignores all the other possibilities which might result in the declining.
In conclusion, the conclusion is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the argument proponent must provide clear evidence that the deer is apparently decreasing. To better assess the argument, I would need better evidence that the global warming has directly caused the decline—perhaps through detailed statistical studies or reliable surveys of deer flocks. The conclusion proves to be unconvincing in that the speaker lacks evidence into prove both the accurateness这个词不太合适，用真实性怎么样 of the decreasing of the deer and the possibility of other alternative factors contributing to the assumptive reason for the arctic deer's population decline.这句太长，而且感觉有点不对，evidence和后面的accurateness还可以匹配，但是和possibility就不太匹配了哦。建议拆成几个句子，意思明确一些
To begin with, one problem with the assumption that the number of the deer has declined is based on local hunters reports which show little statistic evidence of the population of the past and the present, and how about the declining rate.这句也太长，最好是先简洁说明这个report不可靠，在后面再加句具体说哪些方面应该考虑。 Moreover, we are not informed how the hunters draw todraw this assumption这里也有问题，不是hunter 得到结论，而是写report的人. It is entirely possible that the hunters might not be able to find those deer due to the creature are likely to avoid being discovered by hunters or perhaps they migrate to somewhere else moresuitable to live. As a result,这个不好，In these situations好些吧 the number of deer may not reallydecline. 这里倒应该用个Therefore之类的Without providing more reliable evidence of the declining, I cannot be convinced that there is the matter.这句语法有问题，而且最好点明不相信什么
Even assuming that the arctic deer are decreasing, another problem of the argumentwould be这里该肯定点is that the overlapping of the recent global warming and the declining does not necessarily formhas a causal relationship. The speaker mentions that the deer live in an exclusive area with a proper temperature style. However, no more evidence shows that tothe extent to which the global warming has become and whether it has affected the area in which the deer are accustomed and whetherthe ice amongof the islands has accordingly melted. The more such evidencebeing provided, the more reliable the argument iswould be. Moreover, even presuming that the ice has melted, common sense informs us that wild animals are usually to be so adaptive to the environmental surroundings that the deer might be likely to alter their age-old patterns according to the change circumstances.感觉这里用so that结构不太合适 这里最好加一句，without…The unfairly asset of the cause-effect relation is dubious at best.
Last but not least, there may tobe、exist other possible reasons for the assumed decline of deer instead of migration problem. In the likelihood这里不是相似吧, the hunters are totally probable to be responsible for the declining, for thatit is their occupation to gain the hide and venison加个by hunting the deer. Also it is possible that the deer might be eaten by their natural enemy like artic wolves or bears. Or perhaps, the graze plants are scant for feeding the deer due to climate changes. In short, the speaker ignores all the other possibilities which might result in the declining.这段总得来说论证得不错
In conclusion, the conclusion换个词，显得重复 is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the argument proponent must provide clear evidence that the deer is apparently decreasing. To better assess the argument, I would need better evidence that the global warming has directly caused the decline—perhaps through detailed statistical studies or reliable surveys of deer flocks结尾sound！
前两段展开地不太好哈，要多象第三段学习，嘿嘿
其他还是不错的。注意语法错误，继续加油！ 最初由 Alier 发布
The conclusion proves to be unconvincing in that the speaker lacks evidence into prove both the accurateness这个词不太合适，用真..
谢谢楼上的，第一篇argu，还没上手，哈 大致看了一下,神了,跟偶的几乎一样,攻击点,顺序完全一样, 我也是第一篇,也是4.18考 最初由 kkyt 发布
大致看了一下,神了,跟偶的几乎一样,攻击点,顺序完全一样, 我也是第一篇,也是4.18考
en, 一起加油！ ;)
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