新G Argument 难题汇总（持续更新）
本帖最后由 shinian1987 于 2011-12-7 19:38 编辑本帖采用互问互答，相互帮助的方式。
有问题的同学可以在回复中将题目列出来，为了方便别人回答，希望能够贴出完整的题，包括instruction以及题号，我会将问题进行汇总。然后其他同学可以看上面的列出的难题，如果有自己会的，可以通过回复进行回答。最后我会把问题和回答进行整理汇总，为了节省篇幅，汇总的时候不再列出材料。希望大家共同加油。先暂时把老G中没有的题列出来，后面再陆续补充。
提问的格式：题号，材料及instruction
回答的格式：题号，instruction及中文提纲，希望提纲尽量符合instruction的要求。
我自己尽量一天给出一道题的解答，仅供参考，希望大家能够给点意见。
难题：
ARG 2
instruction：Write a response in which you discuss oneor more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presentedin the argument。
作者观点（相当于proposed explanation）：the effects of birth order on an individual's levels of stimulation。
作者想说明 individual’s levels of stimulation. 这里的个体指的是所有的生物个体？还是指哺乳动物？还是指灵长类动物？所以作者的样本选择是有问题的，而且样本数量也很少。
facts: in stimulating situations (such as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol, which primes the body for increased activity levels, as do their younger siblings.
其他解释：没有说明样本如何选择，是随机选的，还是在某一族群中挑出来的。可能这18只恒河猴是特例，或者这种猴子本身就是特例。另外就是individual's levels of stimulation可能是由其它的醇类造成的。
facts: Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence).
其它解释：作者用了一个 such as, 很有可能是 only. 也就是说其它的刺激情况下该事实可能就不成立。
facts：The study also found that during pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring."
其它解释：我一直觉得这个事实和作者想要说明的观点没有什么联系。首先first-time mother monkeys 不一定是first order。其次first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring."这个有很多解释啊，比如说第一次怀孕比较紧张，比如说该研究过程中，某些研究手段让first-time mother monkeys 很紧张。（这个有待讨论）
这道题我自己也很困惑，参考了一些酸奶前辈的论点。在此表示感谢。
ARG6
instruction：Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
提纲：1:需要证据证明这些报告是可信的，有多少猎人提供了报告？这些猎人提供的信息是自己观察得到的，还是道听途说？
2:需要证据证明冰融化是由全球变暖造成的，而不是什么其他的原因。比如说可能海底有火山爆发，导致该区域的海水温度上升。
3:需要证据证明该地区已经长年不结冰了。而且需要说明不是其他原因导致北极鹿数量下降，比如它们赖以生存的plants忽然减少，或是一场瘟疫。
ARG 11
Instruction：Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
材料的结论：will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County.
为了使论点可信，我们需要从以下两方面思考：
1：材料中给出的例子在什么情况下才具有参考价值？
2：结论是基于什么假设得到的？
所以提纲可以这样列：（需要回答的问题）
1：三个县的情况有多大的可比性呢？M县到底和谁更相似？（这个可以展开讨论）
2：C县和P县的房价上涨的真正原因是什么？真的是因为房子供不应求吗？（可以举出其它原因进行反驳，比如经济发展了导致物价上涨等）
3：我们需要知道M县的现状以及未来的发展情况，如果它现在房子供应充足，而且未来人口不会出现大的波动，结论是不成立的。
ARG 14(118)
ARG 14
instruction：Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
提纲：1 作者认为调查研究是可信的，并且认为被调查人提纲的信息是真实的。这可以通过列举其他可能进行反驳：比如调查可能只是统计了一周的数据，或者被调查者为了显示自己的能力，故意少说了自己的睡眠时间。
2： 作者认为睡眠少于6 hours 的人更容易取得成功。
3： 作者认为企业的成功与否与员工的睡眠是否小于6 hours 有很大关系。
ARG15
1. only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change.
no complaint 不代表 happy。很多人可能用其他形式表达自己的不满，比如说不再光顾这家店了，数据中并没有指出顾客的成分，如果只是偶尔光顾的新顾客，他们可能也没有机会再去表达自己的抱怨。文中也没有指出这个替换持续了多长的时间，如果只是刚开始，可能一些老顾客以为只是临时性的替换，所以不以为然。最终这种替换的效果需要一定的时间来检验。
2. many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead.
servers的数据很模糊，没有精确的统计数据。这一点可以举个他例展开讲。
ARG 30
instruction：Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
提纲：1 需要证据证明去年的数据不是特例，反应了人口增长的一般趋势，并且要证明入学率会下降，因为外来人口的加入，会造成即使出生率下降，入学率不降反增。
2 需要证据证明，教育的投入确实会减少，因为即使入学人数减少，但是教育投入也有可能会增加。因为可能会增加一些新的教育设施，比如说以前可能只有图书馆和田径场。现在要有游泳馆，羽毛球场，网球场等等。
3：需要证据证明目前的设施是足够的，如果目前的体育设施本来就很紧张，即使入学人数减少也有可能不满足。那么对这些设施的投入依然要增加。
ARG44
instruction：Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
中文提纲：
1：作者提到CCC买了1万多英亩的土地，并且认为这是用来进行铜矿开采，但是文中并没有说明CCC一定进行铜矿开采，可能CCC使用来作为他用。所以这个假设不成立。
2：即使CCC在此地开采铜矿，作者认为会因此造成污染，这个假设也不一定成立，因为CCC可能采用了比较先进和环保的开采工艺，也有可能CCC只是在这片地区的很小一个地方进行开采。并不会因此造成很严重的环境问题。
3：作者建议当地消费者不买用CCC公司的铜矿做的产品，作者是基于这样的假设，即CCC公司在当地的销售份额很大，并且很多铜矿被当地的公司所利用。这个假设也不一定成立，因为CCC公司开采的铜矿可能用来出口，而且当地消费者对于铜制品的需求可能微乎其微，这对CCC造成不了任何影响。
ARG46
1. 作者比较了今天和20年前的情况，但是没有说明两次的标准是否一样。很有可能以前的健康标准和现在有很多不同。作者没有说明这一点。
2. 作者认为使用电脑和fitness之间没有太多关系。首先拥有电脑的人不一定电脑的使用就频繁；其次，有可能该社区的人比较富有而且比较注意保养，可能在与健康有关的消费上很多，从而使得该社区的人fitness levels are highest 。作者举的例子不足以说明自己的观点。
3. 作者认为经济的不景气导致了与健康有关的消费的下降，并且认为经济复苏后 fitness levels will improve. 可以给出其他的解释进行反驳。比如说由于大家的锻炼方式有了很大变化，以前户外运动，现在可能选择室内运动，以前的运动种类比较单一，现在的运动方式比较丰富多样。而相应的设施却没有增加导致很多人得不到锻炼等等。
ARG 54
https://bbs.gter.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1314402&extra=
ARG79
https://bbs.gter.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1295060&highlight=
ARG 83(84)
84题：
1）首先我们需要明确两次的调查范围是否一样，可能经过这么多年其它几种amphibians迁徙到该公园的其它地方去了，如果调查人员依然在以前的地方调查，是有可能看不到全部的amphibians。也就是说没看到不代表灭绝了，文中并没有说明是在全公园范围内进行的调查。
2）物种数量的减少是有多方面原因的，比如说环境污染，水污染。或者是在自然的竞争下被淘汰，也有可能是下层生物链的断裂，导致那些amphibians无法找到足够的食物，进而导致物种数量的减少。
3）trout会吃amphibian的蛋，这点并不足以说明trout的引进导致物种数量的下降，我们并不知道trout在公园里的数量是多少，如果只是很少一部分，说明对amphibian的生存造不成严重威胁，有可能是其它的生物造成的。
facts: 文中的事实就是amphibian的种类和数量都减少。
我们可以质疑调查的方式，以及造成这种后果的原因。
ARG 91
https://bbs.gter.net/thread-1295543-1-2.html
ARG 97
ARG 157(158)
仅供参考，如果有更好的建议欢迎通过回复进行补充。
占位 求助，如何展开思路，多谢大家！
Argument 11,
The council of Maple County, concerned about the county's becoming overdeveloped, is debating a proposed measure that would prevent the development of existing farmland in the county. But the council is also concerned that such a restriction, by limiting the supply of new housing, could lead to significant increases in the price of housing in the county. Proponents of the measure note that Chestnut County established a similar measure ten years ago, and its housing prices have increased only modestly since. However, opponents of the measure note that Pine County adopted restrictions on the development of new residential housing fifteen years ago, and its housing prices have since more than doubled. the council currently predicts that the proposed measure, if passed, will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County. ARG 14
instruction：Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
提纲：1 作者认为调查研究是可信的，并且认为被调查人提纲的信息是真实的。这可以通过列举其他可能进行反驳：比如调查可能只是统计了一周的数据，或者被调查者为了显示自己的能力，故意少说了自己的睡眠时间。
2： 作者认为睡眠少于6 hours 的人更容易取得成功。
3： 作者认为企业的成功与否与员工的睡眠是否小于6 hours 有很大关系。 ARG6：
instruction：Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
提纲：1：需要证据证明这些报告是可信的，有多少猎人提供了报告？这些猎人提供的信息是自己观察得到的，还是道听途说？
2： 需要证据证明冰融化是由全球变暖造成的，而不是什么其他的原因。比如说可能海底有火山爆发，导致该区域的海水温度上升。
3：需要证据证明该地区已经长年不结冰了。而且需要说明不是其他原因导致北极鹿数量下降，比如它们赖以生存的plants忽然减少，或是一场瘟疫。 ARG 30
instruction：Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
提纲：1 需要证据证明去年的数据不是特例，反应了人口增长的一般趋势，并且要证明入学率会下降，因为外来人口的加入，会造成即使出生率下降，入学率不降反增。
2 需要证据证明，教育的投入确实会减少，因为即使入学人数减少，但是教育投入也有可能会增加。因为可能会增加一些新的教育设施，比如说以前可能只有图书馆和田径场。现在要有游泳馆，羽毛球场，网球场等等。
3：需要证据证明目前的设施是足够的，如果目前的体育设施本来就很紧张，即使入学人数减少也有可能不满足。那么对这些设施的投入依然要增加。 Argument 44
Instruction: The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a journal on environmental issues.
"Over the past year, the Crust Copper Company (CCC) has purchased over 10000 square miles of land in the tropical nation of West Fredonia. Mining copper on this land will inevitably result in pollution and , since West Fredonia is the home of several endangered animal species, in environmental disaster. But such disasters can be prevented if consumers simply refuse to purchase products that are made with CCC's copper unless the company abandons its mining plans.
多谢楼主～ ARG44；
instruction：Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
中文提纲：
1：作者提到CCC买了1万多英亩的土地，并且认为这是用来进行铜矿开采，但是文中并没有说明CCC一定进行铜矿开采，可能CCC使用来作为他用。所以这个假设不成立。
2：即使CCC在此地开采铜矿，作者认为会因此造成污染，这个假设也不一定成立，因为CCC可能采用了比较先进和环保的开采工艺，也有可能CCC只是在这片地区的很小一个地方进行开采。并不会因此造成很严重的环境问题。
3：作者建议当地消费者不买用CCC公司的铜矿做的产品，作者是基于这样的假设，即CCC公司在当地的销售份额很大，并且很多铜矿被当地的公司所利用。这个假设也不一定成立，因为CCC公司开采的铜矿可能用来出口，而且当地消费者对于铜制品的需求可能微乎其微，这对CCC造成不了任何影响。 本帖最后由 shinian1987 于 2011-6-30 18:53 编辑
Argument 74
Instruction: Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The president of Grove College has recommended that the college abandon its century-old tradition of all-female education and begin admitting men. Pointing to other all-female colleges that experienced an increase in applications after adopting coeducation, the president argues that coeducation would lead to a significant increase in applications and enrollment. However, the director of the alumnae association opposes the plan. Arguing that all-female education is essential to the very identity of the college, the director cites annual surveys of incoming students in which these students say that the school's all-female status was the primary reason they selected Grove. The director also points to a survery of Grove alumnae in which a majority of respondents strongly favored keeping the college all female.
多谢楼主，还有一个问题，这种题型到底应该反驳哪个人？是president还是director? 或者都反驳？ 9# holmes1
根据instruction，可以对recommendation和arguing后面的内容进行攻击。
具体说来，
1：recommendation犯了不当类比的错误，别处成功的经验，放在自己这里是否一定有效？这是其一。
2：the director of the alumnae association 举出了两点反对的理由，
首先，the director并没有说明选择这个primary reason的学生占被调查学生的多少？可能只是很少一部分。其次，primary reason并非就是only reason。也就是说这些学生并不可能就一定排斥coeducation
至于针对alumnae的调查，a majorty of 也不能说明到底占总调查人数的多少。而且strongly favored 并不意味着strongly opposite the coeducation。可能调查的时候，问题设置导致了这一结论。比如说，调查的时候只问是否赞成all female education并没有问是否赞成coeducation。 13 In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County last year lowered its speed limit from 55 to 45 miles per hour on all county highways. But this effort has failed: the number of accidents has not decreased, and, based on reports by the highway patrol, many drivers are exceeding the speed limit. Prunty County should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths, resurfacing rough highways, and improving visibility at dangerous intersections. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago.Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.1 事故的原因是不是由于超速造成的2 两地的情况不一样，P的情况跟B的情况不一样，B有效不一定P也有效 156. The following recommendation was made by the president and administrative staff of Grove College, a private institution, to the college's governing committee.
"Recently, there have been discussions about ending Grove College's century-old tradition of all-female education by admitting male students into our programs. At a recent faculty meeting, a majority of faculty members voted in favor of coeducation, arguing that it would encourage more students to apply to Grove. However, Grove students, both past and present, are against the idea of coeducation. Eighty percent of the students responding to a survey conducted by the student government wanted the school to remain all female, and over half of the alumnae who answered a separate survey also opposed coeducation. Therefore, we recommend maintaining Grove College's tradition of all-female education. We predict that keeping the college all-female will improve morale among students and convince alumnae to keep supporting the college financially."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation. 12# lindaltt
不好意思，这两天有点忙。你这个题可以看看第10楼我写的那个分析，因为两段材料基本一样，所以逻辑错误也是一样的。
如果有不同意见，我们可以再讨论讨论。 顶楼主一个{:2_40:}