【Flyer杀G】小组-7.26 Argument45, by Sean

柏拉图的世界UID: 2581296

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 521
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2010-7-28 9:28:59

In this argument the author provides an explanation to the fact, as local hunters said, that the deer populations are declining. The author mainly introduces the age-old migration patterns of arctic deer in Canada's arctic region, and mentions the global warming trends. His/her conclusion holds chance to be right, yet we can still find several logical flaws undermining his/her argument, judging from all the evidences he/she proposes here.

Firstly, casting a look at the saying of the local hunters, which results in the author's concern about the diminishment of deer, we find that it is an unconvincing warning indeed. The author simply fails to tell us how many hunters reported the populations they spotted. If the number of reporting hunters is quite few, the worry about the declining of deer's populations would be unnecessary. Also, it is unknown where were these hunters were living and working. It is possible that these hunters were from a confined territory, thus all they can pointed out is the diminishment of deer in a particular narrow place, not the declination of the overall population of deer in Canada's arctic region. Moreover, we have the justification to assume that the less number of deer spotted by the hunters is due to the less outdoor working of hunters, and thus has nothing to do with the actual number of deer.

When the author tries to relate the declination of populations of deer, which we grant here, he/she overlooks the fact that the global trends are not necessarily the case in the particular region. Since the territory locates in the Canada, in which
it is generally colder than other places and ice used to connect islands, to declare an elevation of temperature there needs more detailed information.

Even if the temperature in those relevant regions climbed with the global warming trends, whether it goes over the threshold to endanger the survival of the deer remains a question. As mentioned in the argument, living of the arctic deer calls for warm enough environment to sustain the plants on which they feed, it is possible the contemporarily warmth can actually help those plants grow well, and remains under a certain temperature to meld those ice through which those deer travelled. Moreover, even under the condition that the warmth make these ice connections disappear, it still doesn't necessarily cause the declination of deer's population. Probably the plants in a particular large enough island can maintain an adequate number of deer, and deer need not to travel any more. In any of these cases, warmth in this territory is not to cause death of deer.

In addition, granted that the local populations of deer are falling, the warmer environment doesn't have to be the only or primarily responsible one, because other factors might be the real culprit. For example, the pollution in rivers and lakes where arctic deer drink can cause death or diseases. And it is possible that those ancient animals are killed by their natural enemies due to their disadvantages in competition.

To conclude, the author's argument is not persuasive. In order to improve his/her reasoning, the author could provide more detailed information in this region.

GabrielGaoUID: 2800551

开头四平八稳，但我认为想最后一句话这样的句子是jargon。肯定不会留下好印象。这句话还不如不写。

柏拉图的世界UID: 2581296

2# GabrielGao 嗯，最后一句实在是时间来不及了，只能草草收尾。