argument20 高频， 望赐教,"决战830拍砖组™"

ytrUID: 164422

------题目------
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
'The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.'
提纲：1 减少事故的必要性
         2 不一定减少rentals能减少事故
         3 IB地的成功可能是其他原因
         4 两地可比性
------正文------
------题目------
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
'The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.'
------正文------
By citing the fact that Island of Torseau's(IT) town reduce the moped accidents by enforcing the limits on the moped rental, the argument concludes that council in Balmer Island (BI) should attain the same reduction in moped accidents as in IT.. However, there are a series of logical flaws in the argument.

To begin with, the argument assume that BI's it is necessary to  reduce the accidents involving mopeds in BI. Yet it is unwarranted. The argument says nothing about the accidents involving mopeds. We don’t know the number and the degree of severity of such incidences. Maybe the number of BI is less than any other regions. And maybe the consequence of these incidences  is very slight.  If so, the council might not need to reduce the number of the moped. The argument mentions the increased population of BI during the summer month but it also cannot indicate that there are many accidents involving mopeds.

Nor the argument justify that the limiting the rentals should take responsibility for  accidents even thought  it is necessary to reduce the number of accidents.  The argument provide no evidence of the number of the rentals involved in accidentsand why the incidences happened. Perhaps the cars rather than rentals result in most of these incidents. If so, it doesn't appear to be reasonable to focus on the rentals. The  argument overlooks some other possibilities to result in the such incidents.  These possibilities  include the physical terrain and harsh weather. It is entirely possible that there are many dangerous curves and sharp turns in the island. It is also impossible the harsh whether have a bad influence on the mopeds. In short, too much attention on the rentals might lead to ignore real cause for the accidentsinvolving .

In addition, the argument provides no assurance that the reduction in the accidents in BI contributes to the limits on the moped rentals.  The argument might overlook other possible reasons for the reduction in BI.  One reason might be increased awareness of the drivers of mopeds. Another reason might be the drivers of mopeds  prefer to walking because this way is more healthy for people.

Finally,  even if  the limits on the moped accidents result in  the reduction in BI,  the argument cannot prove that the success in IT will bring BI the similar benefit in reducing the number of incidences.  The relevant circumstances between A and B are not the same. Perhaps the geographic terrain in BI is much better for the driving than in IT. Or perhaps the drives  of mopeds in BI are more experienced than the drivers in IT.

To sum up, before any decision aimed at addressing the problem of reducing the number of the mopeds accidence is made, more thorough investigation in order to locate the real cause of the moped accidences is much helpful. Besides, we should make a clear comparison of the relevant circumstances between IT and BI.