Argument65 【飞扬之夏】第一次作业

bigtapirUID: 2218972

65 The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

  The argument is well presented, but not thoroughly well reasoned. The reasons mentioned in the argument can hardly support the conclusion that the cheese stores should discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheese.

  First of all, instead of taking all stores into account, the memo based its argument on the achievement of the newest store. We cannot make the judgment about whether imported cheeses are popular simply by analyzing the newest store. The cheeses, which are sold in the newest store is only a small part of the products sold by all the stores.

  In the second place, although Cheeses of the World magazine indicates that an increasing preference for domestic cheese among its subscribers, I still keep several questions in heart. How many subscribers does Cheeses of the World magazine have? Can the subscribers of Cheeses of the World magazine represent all the cheese consumers? Does the increasing preference for domestic cheese mean more domestic cheeses are sold than imported cheese? The memo failed to prove the authority of the survey by the magazine. If the content of the magazine is mainly about introducing domestic cheese, and only those who love domestic cheese would feel like to subscribe the magazine, the subscribers surely prefer domestic cheeses than imported cheeses. What's more, the increasing preference for domestic cheeses does not necessarily mean domestic cheeses are more popular. The market ratio of domestic cheeses may grow from five percent to ten percent, which is a dramatic improvement. However, the market ratio of imported cheeses may decrease from 95 percent to 90 percent, which means they are still dominant. We cannot rush to any conclusion unless we make these points clear.

  In the third place, to make more profits is different from selling more goods. In order to make more profits, the cheeses stores should sell goods, which make more profit than others. Nevertheless, the memo failed to illustrate this point for us. For instance, the cheese store may make five dollars profit from selling ten pieces of domestic cheeses, or they can make eight dollars profit from selling five pieces of imported cheeses. In this case, concentrating on imported cheeses, their selling amount may decrease, but they may get more profits.

  In summary, in order to figure out the best way to improve profits in all of the stores, the president should find out whether the survey by the magazine is plausible, whether the newest represents all stores well and what is the profit rate of different cheeses.

QQSFUID: 183268

65The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

7.9  40min
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题纲
1 最新店证据范围太小 取样片面 样本数量少
2 杂志SURVEY调查范围过广  而且没有提到国产的好于进口
3 不能从限制库存减少开支 就推出国产奶酪能获得更高利润

写得很窝囊感觉  找不到一些特别有效的攻击点  全是通用攻击方式 而且限了时还没写完  句子很难看  看看其他朋友的好的思路

Merely based on the dubious evidence that last year the five best-selling cheeses at their newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses, and a recent survey that indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers, the president of a chain of cheese stores recommends they should pay attention to stock the domestic cheeses rather than imported ones, so as to improve profits. It seems reasonable at first glance, but the presidant ignores some important factors that might weaken his/her reasoning proccess.

To begin with, only one newest store cannot represent all the other stores of the chain. even though the five best-selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic, because we don’t know whether other previously existing stores have similar conditions or how much proportion the newest store’s sale in cheese occupy among the total sales, or above all whether the total sales and profit of imported cheese is significantly less than that of domestic brands (The author doesn’t give any information in this aspect), so the evidence based on only the newest store is very weak to support the conclusion that imported cheeses is unwelc0me.

In addition, the increasing preference among the subscribers of the magazine mentioned by the president also cannot show that the domestic cheeses are superior to the imported. From the literal, Cheeses of the World Magazine must concentrate primarily on the whole world, or even only on the oversea. Perhaps the subscribers of the magazine feel dull about the content or want to understand the local condition.

Without all the above mentioned information, we cannot conclude that the concentration primarily on domestic cheeses reduce expenses and provides more profits as the president claims in the memo. Although the cost of the imported cheeses may be higher than the local, the profits of the imported may also be higher than that of local too. If the oversea products have better quality and welcomed by most consumers, though their prices is higher, people would still like to choose them.

Above all, the president fails to convince us that what he/she claims in the memo. To better support his/her conclusion, the president should provide more evidence or sale information concerning the situation of the other stores. Moreover, that whether the concentration on the domestic cheeses will bring more profits or not, needs to be further proved.

ann01UID: 2196411

Agru 65
The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

1.去年newest store的情况可能是异常情况，今年不一定也这样。而且在这个store卖得  好，不一定在其他store也卖得好。
2.且不说这magazine的调查方法是否科学，结果是否可信。即使结果可信，世界范围的平均结果不一定在stores所在区域也适用。另外，虽然preference已经increase，说不定人们对imported cheese的偏爱还是大于domestic cheese.
3.profit由成本，收益决定，单凭reduce expenses by limiting inventory不能说明经改变后的总支出较原来少。
4.要improve prifits可能还有其他方法，不能说这就是best

In this memo, the president of a chain stores located throughout the United States, argues that the best way to improves profits is to discontinue stocking many imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheese. The recommendaition seems reasonable on the base of three evidences, but I find several flaws that make it unconvincing.

First, what happened last year may not happen this year. Perhaps last year the country limited the cheese import for political reasons, and this year the limitation is canceled. Besides, best selling in one store cannot be infered to all the stores in the chain. Maybe this new store is located in an area where most residences prefer domestic products, or maybe this new store did promotion on domestic cheese to attract custom and open the market.

Second, the result of a recent survey by Cheese of the World magazine needs questioning. How many people did the survry cover? In what areas? Did these subscribers stand for the majority of all the cheese consumers. Even if the indication is rliable, it may be the general situation around the world, but not the situation in America. In addition, an increacing preference for domestic cheese does not mean that the subscribers prefer domestic cheeses to imported ones. Because compared to the number of imported -cheese consumers, perhaps that of domestic-cheese consumers was much too small.

Third, profits depend on many factors. More selling may not lead to more profits. It is possible that the profit from a piece of domestic cheese is much less than that of a piece of imported cheese. Even with the help of reduced expenses of limiting inventory, the stores still cannot make more profits by concentrating primarily on domestic cheese.

Last but not the least, there may be other advices that will help the cheese stores make more profits. But the president mentions none of them. Without comparison, he cannot recommend this way as the best one to promote profits. He draws the conclusion too early.

To make this recommendation more convincing, the president shoud offer me sales of domestic and imported cheeses in different stores. More records in recent years will also be wanted, so that I can see the tendency. The dependence on the survey by the magazine should be confirmed The money cost and selling prices of both domestic and imported cheese are needed too. In addition, he had better offer me several proposals and make a comparison from all aspects.
我的逻辑是依次说明三个证据的不确定性，于是由它们得出的结论有问题。而且best还是在无任何比较的情况下提出的。但感觉这样的安排说服力不够，好象该先重点提出最大谬误，再逐渐细化，增加其不可信度。由于是第一篇，不太会啊，想了半天还是不知该先说什么再说什么，怎样连接，使文章显得言之凿凿，置地有声。有没有高手能spare some time指教下啊？万分感谢！

QQSFUID: 183268

bigtapir 的改好了  记得下次把中文题纲发上来

The argument is well presented, but not thoroughly well reasoned. The reasons mentioned in the argument can hardly support the conclusion that the cheese stores should discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheese.（开头最好大概提一下arguer都说了些什么吧  把攻击点先都提出来  然后分段批）

First of all, instead of taking all stores into account, the memo based its argument on the achievement (sales performance？) of the newest store. We cannot make the judgment about whether imported cheeses are popular simply by analyzing the newest store. The cheeses, which are sold in the newest store is only a small part of the products sold by all the stores. （驳题目的时候最好把题目中的原文或者那个POINT再复述一遍）

In the second place, although Cheeses of the World magazine indicates that an increasing preference for domestic cheese among its subscribers, I still keep several questions in heart.（这个是不是有些CHN了） How many subscribers does Cheeses of the World magazine have? Can the subscribers of Cheeses of the World magazine represent all the cheese consumers? Does the increasing preference for domestic cheese mean more domestic cheeses are sold than imported cheese? The memo failed to prove the authority of the survey by the magazine. If the content of the magazine is mainly about introducing domestic cheese, and only those who love domestic cheese would feel like to subscribe the magazine, the subscribers surely prefer domestic cheeses than imported cheeses. What's more, the increasing preference for domestic cheeses does not necessarily（absolutely ？） mean domestic cheeses are more popular. The market ratio of domestic cheeses may grow from five percent to ten percent, which is a dramatic improvement. However, the market ratio of imported cheeses may decrease from 95 percent to 90 percent, which means they are still dominant. We cannot rush to any conclusion unless we make these points clear.(这段条理很清晰  学习一下)

In the third place, to make more profits is different from selling more goods. In order to make more profits, the cheeses stores should sell goods, which make more profit than others. Nevertheless, the memo failed to illustrate this point for us. For instance, the cheese store may make five dollars profit from selling ten pieces of domestic cheeses, or they can make eight dollars profit from selling five pieces of imported cheeses. In this case, concentrating on imported cheeses, their selling amount may decrease, but they may get more profits.（这段不错  销量不等于利润）

In summary, in order to figure out the best way to improve profits in all of the stores, the president should find out whether the survey by the magazine is plausible, whether the newest represents all stores well and what the profit rate of different cheeses is.（这个不是让那个president找错误所在～  应该是提供更加strong的support吧 结尾段要小心）

ann01UID: 2196411

有点乱哪,不好意思.下次就懂了!

ann01UID: 2196411

两位的我改好了,欢迎讨论!

[ 本帖最后由 ann01 于 2006-7-9 21:02 编辑 ]

bigtapirUID: 2218972

QQST的提了一点建议。

QQSFUID: 183268

ann01 的改好了  逻辑不错 写作功底也比较扎实  学习了 提了一些个人的写作经验  水平一般见笑了  请努力  
65的最大漏洞的确应该是这个 我的作业看来要大改了
3.profit由成本，收益决定，单凭reduce expenses by limiting inventory不能说明经改变后的总支出较原来少。

注意下次发DOC文件注明自己的ID

paul_zhang007UID: 2192981

Argument65      用时：38mins  字数：513
The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
'For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses.


In this argument, the author asserts that by discontinuing storing many of their various imported cheese and focusing mainly on domestic cheeses, their chain store may improve profits. To substantiate his assertion, he cites that all domestic cheeses are among the top five best-selling cheeses in their newest store and furthermore, that a recent survey indicates that subscribers of Cheeses of the World magazine favor domestic cheeses rather than imported ones. This argument seems, at first glance, to be plausible. However, after close scrutiny, we may find it flawed in several aspects, which renders it unconvincing.

First of all, the author too hastily draw the conclusion from the fact that in their newest store, the five best-selling cheeses are all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. It's equally likely that habitants around their newest store just would like to try the domestic food which they may find tasty, too expensive, not fit to their taste and therefore, they will purchase the imported ones next time they patronize the newest store. Even the residents around the newest store will still factor domestic ones, it's entirely possible that in other stores, residents are and will choose imported cheeses rather than the domestic cheeses, as a result of their quality, taste, shape etc. Without ruling out these possible scenarios, the author's assertion may seem unconvincing as it stands.


Secondly, the author equates the fact that subscribers from Cheeses of the World magazine prefer domestic cheeses with the fact that all the other individual will have the same taste, which renders it a poor analogy. Chances are that subscribers from Cheeses of the World magazine just account for a small part of all the cheeses consumer all around the state, and most people think imported cheeses delicious, in which case the survey is obviously exclusive and misleading. What's more, the author didn't provide us with the scale and range of the survey and what kind of individual take the survey. It's highly possible that just those who like domestic cheeses has taken the survey. Under each of the above-mentioned circumstances, the author can't lend sufficient support from the survey to demonstrate his assertion.


Additionally, even the above assumption are both valid, the author fails to take into other factors by suggesting all of their stores discontinue stocking imported cheeses. Taste differs between different blocks, cities, not to speak of different regions. And just focusing mainly on domestic cheeses doesn't necessarily lead to improved profits, which can be affected by numerous factors.

In conclusion, the author's assertion is seriously flawed. To convince me that the store should cease producing imported cheeses, we need information about whether the residents the newest store will still favors domestic cheeses. And how many people have been involved in the survey and whether Cheeses of the World magazine is a widely spread and famous magazine. And to better evaluate this argument, the author should also provide the cheeses sales situation in other stores and probably a survey about how individual in the whole nation find the imported cheeses as well as the domestic cheeses.


希望大家能指正我的错误和不足！谢谢了！

paul_zhang007UID: 2192981

哈哈 我的ID是： Paul_zhang007
我先来该大家的作文吧~~~

paul_zhang007UID: 2192981

The argument is well presented, but not thoroughly well reasoned. The reasons mentioned in the argument can hardly support the conclusion that the cheese stores should discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheese.
(开头段有三个目的，写出作者得出了什么结论，作者用什么来支持自己的观点，你觉得作者的观点有flaw.而在你的开头段中，没有指出作者得出的结论到底是什么，这不利于你后面批判作者的观点。因为，你的靶子都没有树立给考官，你后面又怎么能去批判它呢？)


First of all, instead of taking all stores into account, the memo based its argument on the achievement(建议改成sales situation相信你的意思是表达“业绩，销量”的意思吧) of the newest store. We cannot make the judgment about whether imported cheeses are popular simply by analyzing the newest store. The cheeses, which are sold in the newest store is only a small part of the products sold by all the stores.（建议改成“可能”的口气）

In the second place, although Cheeses of the World magazine indicates that an increasing preference for domestic cheese among its subscribers, I still keep several questions in heart.（Chienglish） How many subscribers does Cheeses of the World magazine have? Can the subscribers of Cheeses of the World magazine represent all the cheese consumers? Does the increasing preference for domestic cheese mean more domestic cheeses are sold than imported cheese? The memo failed to prove the authority of the survey by the magazine. If the content of the magazine is mainly about introducing domestic cheese, and only those who love domestic cheese would feel like to subscribe the magazine, the subscribers surely prefer domestic cheeses than （应该改成“to prefer A to B”）imported cheeses. What's more, the increasing preference for domestic cheeses does not necessarily mean domestic cheeses are more popular. The market ratio of domestic cheeses may grow from five percent to ten percent, which is a dramatic improvement. However, the market ratio of imported cheeses may decrease from 95 percent to 90 percent, which means they are still dominant. We cannot rush to any conclusion unless we make these points clear.(这段关于magazine的假设比较新颖，值得学习)


In the third place, to make more profits is different from selling more goods. In order to make more profits, the cheeses stores should sell goods, which make more profit than others. Nevertheless, the memo failed to illustrate this point for us. For instance, the cheese store may make five dollars profit from selling ten pieces of domestic cheeses, or they can make eight dollars profit from selling five pieces of imported cheeses. In this case, concentrating on imported cheeses, their selling amount may decrease, but they may get more profits.（你这段的写作目的我不是很明白）

In summary, in order to figure out the best way to improve profits in all of the stores, the president should find out whether the survey by the magazine is plausible, whether the newest represents all stores well and what is the profit rate of different cheeses.

QQSFUID: 183268

paul_zhang007 的改了一下  这些修改意见
In this argument, the author asserts that by discontinuing storing many of their various imported cheese and focus mainly on domestic cheeses, their chain store may improve profits. To substantiate his assertion, he cites that all domestic cheeses are among the top five best-selling cheeses in their newest store and furthermore, that a recent survey indicates that subscribers of Cheeses of the World magazine favor domestic cheeses rather than imported ones. This argument seems, at first glance, to be plausible. However, after close scrutiny, we may find it flawed in several aspects, which renders it unconvincing.

First of all, the author too hastily draw the conclusion from the fact that in their newest store, the five best-selling cheeses are all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. It's equally likely（能这样用吗 没见过啊） that habitants around their newest store just would like to try the domestic food which they may find tasty, too expensive, not fit to their taste and therefore, they will purchase the imported ones next time they patronize the newest store.（这句太长了点吧～） Even the residents around the newest store will still factor domestic ones, it's entirely possible that in other stores, residents are and will choose imported cheeses rather than the domestic cheeses, as a result of their quality, taste, shape etc. Without ruling out these possible scenarios, the author's assertion may seem unconvincing as it stands.

Secondly, the author equates the fact that subscribers from Cheeses of the World magazine prefer domestic cheeses with the fact that all the other individual will have the same taste, which renders it a poor analogy. Chances are that subscribers from Cheeses of the World magazine just account for a small part of all the cheeses consumer all around the state, and most people think imported cheeses delicious, in which case the survey is obviously exclusive and misleading. What's more, the author didn't provide us with the scale and range of the survey and what kind of individual take the survey. It's highly possible that just those who like domestic cheeses has taken the survey. Under each of the above-mentioned circumstances, the author can't lend sufficient support from the survey to demonstrate his assertion.

Additionally, even the above assumption are both valid, the author fails to take into other factors by suggesting all of their stores discontinue stocking imported cheeses. Taste differs between different blocks, cities, not to speak of different regions. And just focusing mainly on domestic cheeses doesn't necessarily lead to improved profits, which can be affected by numerous factors.

In conclusion, the author's assertion is seriously flawed. To convince me that the store should cease producing imported cheeses, we need information about whether the residents the newest store will still favors domestic cheeses. And how many people have been involved in the survey and whether Cheeses of the World magazine is a widely spread and famous magazine. And to better evaluate this argument, the author should also provide the cheeses sales situation in other stores and probably a survey about how individual in the whole nation find the imported cheeses as well as the domestic cheeses.
语言很过硬  说说逻辑吧  A65这个题目最大的逻辑错误其实是利润和库存还有销量都没有关系  题目最根本是说为了提升利润  但是利润其实和减少开支还有什么销量优良的奶酪都没关系 这个是主驳点  模板痕迹很重啊  试着把话说的灵活一点吧 写得不错 加油

KellyClarksonUID: 2176602

An interesting thing is that:
the bester seller, domestic cheddar cheeses, can be welcomed because consumers love the flavor of cheddar, not because of it is domestically produced.

By the way, i love cheese and popcorn in cheddar.

Here is an introduction of cheddar cheese from www.cheese.com:

"The most widely purchased and eaten cheese in the world. Cheddar cheeses were originally made in England, however today they are manufactured in many countries all over the world. Fully cured Cheddar is a hard, natural cheese. It is shaped like a drum, 15 inches in diameter, with natural rind bound in cloth. Normally, the color of Cheddar ranges from white to pale yellow. Some Cheddars, however, have a color added, giving the cheese a yellow-orange color. Cheddar is always made from cow's milk and has a slightly crumbly texture if properly cured. If the cheese is too young, the texture is smooth. Cheddar gets a sharper taste the longer it matures. It is generally matured between 9 and 24 months. The important thing in purchasing Cheddar, is to consider the age of the cheese. Milk is heated to 86 degrees F and inoculated with a lactic starter culture. After an hour rennet is added. When the curd is firm, it is ground down to marble-sized bits which are heated to 100 degrees F. The whey is discarded and it is sliced into slabs. The curd is pressed overnight and stands for 4 days in a cool atmosphere. Unlike other well known cheeses, Cheddar's name is not protected so it has been used and abused by many producers around the world."

[ 本帖最后由 KellyClarkson 于 2006-7-11 04:54 编辑 ]

paul_zhang007UID: 2192981

谢谢指正 我会再努力研究逻辑方面的错误的~~~