0610G-PRACTISE小组作业 ARGUMENT 45

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题目：ARGUMENT 45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
字数：426          用时： 0:51:56          日期：2006-8-7

This argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. In this argument, the arguer claims that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. In addition, the arguer cites the result of survey from local hunters that the deer populations are declining. Close scrutiny reveals, however, that these evidences provide little credible support for the arguer's assertion.

To begin with, a threshold problem with the argument involves the statistical reliability of the survey. The reports from local hunters, which provide no assurance that the survey on which the argument depends is statistically reliable. The hunters may be to some extend just only saw the part of the deer and make hasty decision to advocate that the deer population is decreasing. Lacking information about the randomness and size of the survey, the arguer can not make a convincing argument based on that survey.

Moreover, the arguer provides no substantial evidence to support the assumption that the main reason why arctic deer populations decreasing is that globe warming which caused the sea ice to melt. However, the arguer fails to evident that the globe warming causes how many ocean levels raise. Perhaps, just totally 0.001metres the level rise. Hence, there is no thread to sea ice which might be melting. Even if exists the sea ice to melt, we can not hasty to due to the globe warming. For this matter, perhaps, other nature phenomena as ocean current and ultraviolet ray and so forth contribute to the decline of the deer. Nevertheless other hunters’ activities brought about. In short, without eliminating this possibilities, the arguer not rely on the one thing to conduce that the declining of the deer own to the globe warming.

Finally, the arguer fails to commit to account other possibilities. For example, the excessive hunting due to the high price of the deer, another change of the climate, the food of the deer decreasing and so forth. To sum up, the arguer's claim is dubious at best.

In conclusion, rather than relying solely on questionable fact that the recent globe warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt. The arguer should provide direct evidence that how many level the ocean level raised and  how many deer population declining, to evaluate the arguer's conclusion more efficiently, we would know more information concerning more detail and more accurate statistical about the living environment of deer to strengthen the conclusion, the arguer must provide more convincing evidence to substantial the argument.