Argument51 076G Myth小组第二次作业--Hermes

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT51 - The following appeared in a medical newsletter.

"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment."
WORDS: 522         TIME: 上午 12:40:00          DATE: 2006-10-20

The author concludes that all patients who suffer muscle strain would be advised to take antibiotics to as part of their recuperation. In order to support this argument, the author cites results of a study in comparing two groups of patients' recuperation time with different treatment. At first glance, the author's argument seems to be somewhat convincing, but further reflection reveals that it omits some important concerns that should be addressed to substantiate the argument.

First of all, the author commits a fallacy of hasty generalization in assuming that all patients of muscle strain will suffer secondary infections. There is no evidence indicate that patients who suffer muscle strain all will get secondary infections. There is no evidence indicate that patients who catch secondary infection all will descend the speed of recuperation. Perhaps, only severe muscle strainer who suffers from injure might catch infection secondly, other muscle strainer such as genetic disease might not catch infection secondly. Lacking more concrete information about patients' secondary infection, we can not assume that the great majority of muscle strain patient will catch secondary infection and need to take antibiotics as supplementary of the treatment.

Secondly, even if I concede that all patients will suffer secondary infections when suffer muscle strain, there is no evidence to support the assumption that antibiotics are the reason of reducing the average recuperation time. While taking antibiotics is an important contribution factor to healing, it is not the only factor. Many other reasons-- the physical quality of patients' own, the extent of suffering, the reason of muscle strain, the method of treatment, and so forth--could just as likely account for the healing. Lacking a detailed analysis of the reasons which will effect the recuperation, it would be problematic to attribute the taking antibiotics to benefit the recovering.

Next, the author's conclusion that taking antibiotics can stimulate the muscle strain recovering depends on the assumption that the study results are statistically reliable. Yet, the author offers no evidence to substantiate this study sufficiently representative. The author must show that two group patient constitute a sufficiently large sample of muscle strain patients. And the author must show that this sample is representative of muscle strain patients in all reasons. Otherwise, the author cannot confidently draw any conclusion whatsoever.

Finally, the study cited by the author is described in the vaguest possible terms. It is entirely possible that the conditions of the two group patient are different, the reasons of muscle strain are diverse, the ways of treatment the two doctors conduct are not alike. Any of scenarios, if it is trur, might undermine the author's claim.

In sum, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it the author must assure me that all patients will suffer secondary infections, and antibiotic is one of the effective way to reduce the recuperation time. To bolster the reliability of the study upon which the author's conclusion depends, I would need more information about the size and makeup of the study's sample. I also need to know what bring about secondary infection and whether antibiotic is the function of muscle strain patients' recover.