argument147 12月高强组周六作业

sunnie_518UID: 2136235

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 581         TIME: 0:40:00          DATE: 2006-12-2


提纲：1survey有问题
      2没有分析w销售降低的原因
      3 广告不一定有效：10－25的人不一定对其游戏有兴趣，购买力也没有考虑
      4 即使有效，也不可以保证会马上有效
In this argument, the arguer concludes that past two years declining trend of the sales of Whirlwind video games is about to reversed and its sales are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To strengthen his conclusion, the speaker cites a recent survey in which video-game players indicated a preference for games with lifelike graphics requiring the most up-to-date computers. The speaker also points out the company has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old who most likely to play video games. Close scrutiny reveals, however, that this argument is specious on several grounds.

First, the survey on which the argument depends on fails to provide reliable statistics. From it, we find no sign of such procedures for random sampling, and have good reason to doubt if the sample is representative enough to reflect the general attitude of all the game players as whole; and the amount of the respondents are also not presented. Perhaps the number is too low to support the speaker's conclusion.

Secondly, the speaker makes the assumption that the declining of sales of Whirlwind is attributable to the problems of introduction of new product. Yet, it is entirely possible that the decline was due to factors such as low quality, unwise price strategy or unsatisfactory after-sale service. Since the speaker has not identified the cause of the decline, we cannot convince that the introduction of the new products will reverse the declining trend of the sales.

Thirdly, the assumption that the advertising campaign directed at the people of 10 to 25 years old will be effective to cause the predicted increasing sales is open to doubt. On the one hand, there is no concrete statistics about how many people in this demographic group are enthusiastic about playing video games .Even if people in this group are really the most likely to play games, the percentage of people who are interested in the games introduced by Whirlwind are unknown and perhaps the number is very too low to be Whirlwind's ideal consumers. On the other hand, even if people of 10-25 years old favor the games of Whirlwind and the ad campaign attracts them successfully this result does not suffice to cause the increase of the sales in next few months. Perhaps Whirlwind's new games are prohibitively expensive for the demographic groups. Or perhaps, its competitors also introduce the similar games at relatively lower prices or with additional features which render their products more attractive than Whirlwind's. Unless the speaker can provide evidences to rule out such possibilities, the prediction that Whirlwind is about to experience a dramatic increase in sales is unwarranted.

Finally, even if the sales of Whirlwind's is about to increase, it is ungrounded that the impending increase in sales will happen within the next few months. It is possible that the new games need more than two months to become popular and thus it will take a longer time for Whirlwind to expect its sales increases. So, the speaker's conclusion is too hasty to be reliable.

In summary, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the speaker must provide clear evidence of how the survey is carried out and that whether people of 10-25 years old would be interested in Whirlwind's new games and whether they can afford it. to better assess this argument, we should also know the real factors caused the two-year sales to decline.

waidswUID: 2256074

In this argument, the arguer concludes that past two years declining trend of the sales of Whirlwind video games is about to reversed and its sales are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To strengthen his conclusion, the speaker cites a recent survey in which video-game players indicated a preference for games with lifelike graphics requiring the most up-to-date computers. The speaker also points out the company has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old who most likely to play video games. Close scrutiny reveals, however, that this argument is specious on several grounds.

First, the survey on which the argument depends on fails to provide reliable statistics. From it, we find no sign of such procedures for random sampling, and have good reason to doubt if the sample is representative enough to reflect the general attitude of all the game players as whole; and the amount of the respondents are also not presented. Perhaps the number is too low to support the speaker's conclusion.

Secondly, the speaker makes the assumption that the declining of sales of Whirlwind is attributable to the problems of introduction of new product. Yet, it is entirely possible that the decline was due to factors such as low quality, unwise price strategy or unsatisfactory after-sale service. Since the speaker has not identified the cause of the decline, we cannot convince that the introduction of the new products will reverse the declining trend of the sales.
Thirdly, the assumption that the advertising campaign directed at the people of 10 to 25 years old will be effective to cause the predicted increasing sales is open to doubt. On the one hand, there is no concrete statistics about how many people in this demographic group are enthusiastic about playing video games .Even if people in this group are really the most likely to play games, the percentage of people who are interested in the games introduced by Whirlwind are unknown and perhaps the number is very （much）too low to be Whirlwind's ideal consumers. On the other hand, even if people of 10-25 years old favor the games of Whirlwind and the ad campaign attracts them successfully this result does not suffice to cause the increase of the sales in next few months. Perhaps Whirlwind's new games are prohibitively expensive for the demographic groups. Or perhaps, its competitors also introduce the similar games at relatively lower prices or with additional features which render their products more attractive than Whirlwind's. Unless the speaker can provide evidences to rule out such possibilities, the prediction that Whirlwind is about to experience a dramatic increase in sales is unwarranted.

Finally, even if the sales of Whirlwind's is about to increase, it is ungrounded that the impending increase in sales will happen within the next few months. It is possible that the new games need more than two months to become popular and thus it will take a longer time for Whirlwind to expect its sales increases. So, the speaker's conclusion is too hasty to be reliable.
In summary, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the speaker must provide clear evidence of how the survey is carried out and that whether people of 10-25 years old would be interested in Whirlwind's new games and whether they can afford it. To better assess this argument, we should also know the real factors caused the two-year sales to decline.

写得很好，逻辑结构很清晰，语言流畅，该驳斥的都说到了，我没有好改的！