argument17 【mettle小组假期作业一】 by imagic80

imagic80UID: 2342633

79The following appeared in a magazine for the trucking industry.
"The Longhaul trucking company was concerned that its annual accident rate (the number of accidents per mile driven) was too high. It granted a significant pay increase to its drivers and increased its training standards. It also put strict limits on the number of hours per week each driver could drive. The following year, its trucks were involved in half the number of accidents as before the changes were implemented. A survey of other trucking companies found that the highest-paid drivers were the least likely to have had an accident. Therefore, trucking companies wishing to reduce their accident rate can do so simply by raising their drivers' pay and limiting the overall number of hours they drive."
Words:519  time:50
In the argument, the author remmends that simply by raising the drivers’ pay and limiting the overall number of hours they drive will reduce their accident rate. However, the following analysis will reveal many fallacies in his conclusion.

To begin with, the fact that the number of truck accidents in which the trucks of Longhaul trucking company (L) involve reduced in the following year after the implementation of the new changes does not necessarily implys that there is a causal relationship between the former event and the latter event. There are many factors which can cause the same result or the result is the synergistic effect of the factors. for example, it is highly likely that the condition of roads has been greatly improved during the following year. The government lay more stress on the construction of roads in order to promote the economic growth. The obstacles is eliminated and traffic lights are repaired, and so on. On the other hand, the public sense of people have been greatly improved by the progapanda of traffic security. When meeting with trucks at the intersections, they will not rush across them before the trucks comparing with what they have done in the last year. Without ruling out these possibilities, we can not convinced that the changes are responsible for the reduce of truck accidents.
In addition, even assuming that the decrease of truck accident is due to the implementation of these changes, we can not ensure that these changes will bring about the same result in any truck company. After all, every company has their own specific situation. Firstly, the quality of driver is different. So the changes bring about an effective in L might bring about a different in different company. Secondly, whether fatigue is the only reason of the truck accidents? Perhaps it is the case in L, but is not in other companies. Thirdly, how the drivers use the saving hours from work is important. The drivers of L spend the time on sleeping while the drivers of other companies spend it on entertainment. Only the difference among all the companies is eliminated, we can accept that this changes will be useful in reducing truck accident in any company.
Finally, even if we concede that if the other truck companies adopt this new changes will produce the same impact on reducing truck accidents, the recommendation of the arguer is only focusing on raising pay and limiting the woring hours without taking into accout the increase of training standard. It is entirely likely that the increase of standard is the most important part of the new changes, which is very effective in reducing truck accidents. Equiped with flexible driving skills, the driver can respond correctly and avoid many accidents. No evidence is given to support the author’s additional assumption that increasing the training standard is in vain.
In conclusion, before expand these changes to a big scale, the arguer must conduct a more cautious and careful investagation to make sure what is the main reason cause truck accidents and whether these changes will be effective in other truck companies.

AndierUID: 2302600

In the argument, the author remmends that simply by raising the drivers’ pay and limiting the overall number of hours they drive will reduce their accident rate. However, the following analysis will reveal many fallacies in his conclusion.

To begin with, the fact that the number of truck accidents in which the trucks of Longhaul trucking company (L) involve reduced in the following year after the implementation of the new changes does not necessarily implys that there is a causal relationship between the former event and the latter event. There are many factors which can cause the same result or the result is the synergistic effect of the factors. for example, it is highly likely that the condition of roads has been greatly improved during the following year. The government lay more stress on the construction of roads in order to promote the economic growth. The obstacles is eliminated and traffic lights are repaired, and so on. On the other hand, the public sense of people have been greatly improved by the progapanda of traffic security. When meeting with trucks at the intersections, they will not rush across them before the trucks comparing with what they have done in the last year. Without ruling out these possibilities, we can not convinced that the changes are responsible for the reduce of truck accidents.



In addition, even assuming that the decrease of truck accident is due to the implementation of these changes, we can not ensure that these changes will bring about the same result in any truck company. After all, every company has their own specific situation. Firstly, the quality of driver is different. So the changes bring about an effective in L might bring about a different in different company. Secondly, whether fatigue is the only reason of the truck accidents? Perhaps it is the case in L, but is not in other companies. Thirdly, how the drivers use the saving hours from work is important. The drivers of L spend the time on sleeping while the drivers of other companies spend it on entertainment. Only the difference among all the companies is eliminated, we can accept that this changes will be useful in reducing truck accident in any company.



Finally, even if we concede that if the other truck companies adopt this new changes will produce the same impact on reducing truck accidents, the recommendation of the arguer is only focusing on raising pay and limiting the woring hours without taking into accout the increase of training standard. It is entirely likely that the increase of standard is the most important part of the new changes, which is very effective in reducing truck accidents. Equiped with flexible driving skills, the driver can respond correctly and avoid many accidents. No evidence is given to support the author’s additional assumption that increasing the training standard is in vain.

这段感觉可以放在前面说。


In conclusion, before expand these changes to a big scale, the arguer must conduct a more cautious and careful investagation to make sure what is the main reason cause truck accidents and whether these changes will be effective in other truck companies.

这个题感觉确实有难度啊~~ 可说的地方不多~ 我看了好几遍也没啥好思路~ 感觉 lz 可以写写出这些内容已经很不容易了。。。回头又功夫的时候咱可以研究一下。。