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Argument51 (532)
The following appeared in a medical newsletter.
“Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has mow been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment.”
提纲:
1、 Dr.N可能给患者服用了某种其他药物,而Dr.A没有,而这种药物恰恰是治疗严重肌肉扭伤的关键药。
2、 Dr.N在运动医学领域可能比Dr.A水平要高。
3、 样本过小不足以说明问题,并且只有Dr.A的病人成功不足以推广至所有病人。
The author supported the hypothesis that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain by the contrastive experiment between Dr. Newland (Dr. N) and Dr. Alton (Dr. A), whose result is the patients took antibiotics got well faster than who did not take it. But it cannot make me believe the hypothesis, because several things are not known about the experiment.
First, maybe Dr. N prescript his patients another medicine which is the key drug in treating severe muscle strain, but Dr. A did not. The medical newsletter did not show us the lists of the two doctors, so we do not know the situation of their prescriptions, for example, did they use the same medicine, if they did not use the same medicine, what is the effect of the different drug, and is it the key of the whole prescription. The medical newsletter did not explain the contrastive experiment is standard. Only when the two groups took the same medicine except one took antibiotics but the other took sugar pills, the two groups are comparable, or the contractive experiment is not action. Hence the author can not make me believe the hypothesis through the experiment.
Second, the medical newsletter said that Dr. N is a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, but Dr. A is a general physician, so Dr. N maybe has a higher level in sports medicine. Perhaps, Dr. N is engaged in sports medicine for several years. He is familiar with the professional knowledge very well, has many successful cases, is good at choose the most effective treating scheme; even is an expert in this area. But this was the first time for Dr. A to treat severe muscle strain. He has no experience and the process he treats the patient is the process he gropes. If the gap between the two doctors is so large, their result can not used to prove the antibiotics’ effect.
Thirdly, only based on the fact that the average recuperation time of the patients of Dr. N reduced is not enough to say the antibiotics must be used in clinic. On the one hand, the swatch is too small. The patients of Dr. N got well faster maybe are only a coincidence. On the other hand, only Dr. N succeeded by using the antibiotics does not mean all patients took them could get well faster. There are many other factures could effect the healing speed, such as the level of the doctor, the hospital environment, the patient’s ability of spending the key medicine and whether the patient is allergic to the antibiotics. If the patient is allergic, he or she could not touch any antibiotic, or will lead to worse result. So, whether should the subject that use antibiotics to treat severe muscle train be extended to all the patient is still need consideration.
In sum, the medical newsletter used the contractive experiment between Dr. N and Dr. A cannot prove the hypothesis is right, because the author did not show us a lot of information which is necessary; the two experiments cannot be compared at all. To support the hypothesis, we still need more detailed information. |
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