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147.The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine. "Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
This articles recommends that despite the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to reverse in next few months. To support this conclusion the author cites a survey at video-game players for what features they thought were most important in video game. On the basis of this evidence the author infers that introduce several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25, which will increase their sales. This conclusion is logically flawed in several critical respects.
To begin with, the author provides no evident that the survey's respondents are representative of all the group of video-game players all over the country. Lacking such evidence, it is entirely possible that the respondents are only a miniscule segment of all players, whose responds are less values compared to most players. Perhaps, the respondents are beyond 10 to 25 years old, which will lead the firm's advertising campaign useless. In short, without better evidence that the survey is reliable the author cannot rely on it to draw any firm conclusions about lifelike graphics is most important as all the players think, let alone about their sales of video-game based on graphics will increase later.
Next, even if granted that lifelike graphics is the most important features, the author fails to take into account other factors that might affect the choice of video-game. Perhaps besides the graphics, players are equally concerned with the scenario of the games. Perhaps the music of a game is the most significant decoration which dramatically affects the determination of the players. Moreover, perhaps Whirlwind's new games are far more expensive for players to afford. Without no evident that Whirlwind's new games involve the factors above, I cannot be convinced that Whirlwind's new strategy will reverse at all.
Finally, the author unfairly assumes that the players 10 to 25 will choose their games after extensive adverting. Perhaps Whirlwind's competitors are introducing their similar games at the same time. And perhaps, young players are more interesting in other firm's games than Whirlwind. Even grated that players prefer Whirlwind's games, there lies no sufficient assurance to cause the reverse, since perhaps Whirlwind's new games require the most up-to-date computers, but players 10 to 25 do not have.
In sum, the conclusion is not well supported. To strengthen the argument the author must provide clear evidence that the survey's respondents are representative of all the video-game players. The author must also provide evidences that Whirlwind's new games are prefer by players 10 to 25 who could afford to buy. |
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