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发表于 2012-1-11 00:26:19 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

题目：Jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Also, a number of well-known jazz musicians own homes in Monroe. Nevertheless, the nearest jazz club is over an hour away. Given the popularity of jazz in Monroe and a recent nationwide study indicating that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment, a jazz music club in Monroe would be tremendously profitable."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

In this argument,the arguer assumes that a jazz music club in Monroe would be tremendously profitable. To bolster the conclusion, the arguer assumes that jazz music is especially popular in Monroe based on the evidence that over 100,00 people attended Monroe's annul jazz festival last summer, and that Jazz Nightly is the highest-rated radio program in Monroe; In addition, the arguer assumes that large number of well-known jazz musicians owning homes in Monroe can contribute to the jazz's popularity there ; Meanwhile the arguer cites the result of a recent nationwide study that the typical jazz fan spends nearly $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment to substantiate the assumption that jazz music club can make tremendous profits. Although this argument seems reasonable in the first glance, it is in fact ill-conceived. The reasons are stated as follows.

In the first place, the arguer assumes that jazz music is extremely popular in Monroe. Since over 100,00 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer, and that 'Jazz Nightly' is the highest-rated radio program in Monroe. Firstly, it is possible that most of the people who attended the annual jazz festival last summer were tourists, and they came to Monroe not mainly for the jazz festival, maybe they were attracted by the comfortable weather, or the long history culture of the city, and so on. Even though those people are native there, it is possible that so many people attending the festival last summer was an aberration.Maybe the jazz festival last summer made a large appealing advertisement and made some special award that attracted so many people. Secondly, the radio program 'Jazz Nightly' is the highest-rated in Monroe cannot necessarily prove that jazz music is popular in Monroe. Since it is possible that people like the host of 'Jazz Nightly' rather than the jazz music, or the other radio programs are far too worse than 'Jazz Nightly', thus people have to chose 'Jazz Nightly'. All these take the assumption that jazz music is very popular in Monroe into a question.

In the second place, the arguer points out that there are numbers of well-known jazz musicians owning homes in Monroe. Along with this fact, the arguer seems to assume that these famous musicians will bring Monroe a jazz spring, making jazz a hot issue in Monroe, thus a jazz club there would be profitable. However, it is suspicious that these musicians can really make some contribution to jazz popularity there. It is possible that people used to like these musicians and now have not any interest in them. Even if people are still love this musicians, they don't necessarily come to Monroe to listen to jazz music, not alone joining a jazz club there. Since people can enjoy jazz through the TV, the CD, or the computer.Thus these musicians living in Monroe don't necessarily be a favorable factor for jazz club's tremendous profits.

Last but not least, the arguer cites a recent nation survey that the typical jazz fan spends nearly $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It seems that the arguer assumes that it can be a direct evidence to prove that a jazz club would be profitable. However, the arguer cannot guarantee that typical jazz fan in Monroe also will spend about $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment, since it is possible that people in Monroe is commonly not affluent and won't spend much money on jazz entertainment even if they love jazz very much. Furthermore, even if typical jazz fan in Monroe also spend much money on jazz entertainment, it doesn't mean that other people will spend so much on it, and it is very likely that the typical jazz fan in Monroe is just a small part of the people there, thus a jazz club there cannot necessarily make tremendous profits.

To sum up, the arguer's predication that a jazz club in Monroe would be tremendous profitable based on three assumptions concerning the jazz's popularity there, many famous jazz musicians there, and a recent nation survey relating to typical jazz fan's considerable expenditure on jazz entertainment. However, the evidences which used to support the assumptions are not so persuasive and thus lead the predication to a unconvincing one.