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Argument150 我的处子作
Argument150 第1篇 我的处子作 自己已经改了一遍 不要告诉我越改越烂了 那我要撞死去了
------题目------
The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine.
'The decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide clearly indicates the global pollution of water and air. Two studies of amphibians in Yosemite National Park in California confirm my conclusion. In 1915 there were seven species of amphibians in the park, and there were abundant numbers of each species. However, in 1992 there were only four species of amphibians observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. The decline in Yosemite has been blamed on the introduction of trout into the park's waters, which began in 1920 (trout are known to eat amphibian eggs). But the introduction of trout cannot be the real reason for the Yosemite decline because it does not explain the worldwide decline.'
------正文------
In this letter, the author claims that the global pollution of water and air causes the decline of amphibians world wide. He bases his conclusion on two studies done in 1915 and 1992 of amphibians in Yosemite National Park in California, ruling out the introduction of trout as the real reason of the Yosemite decline. This argument clearly commits several fallacies and thus is unconvincing. General statement 过于详细,大可节省
First of all, the two studies which the argument is based on were done at two terminal dates--1915 and 1992. The time span between the two dates are more than 70 years, the period about which the author has not cited any evidence or statistics. 这句话从句用得不舒服Thus without the detailed curve of the number of amphibians in Yosemite during the 77 years, which may help us know more clearly about the overall trend of the transition, we can reach little conclusion about what has happened to the number of amphibians in Yosemite. 缺乏例证,可以对70年间amphibian数量走势进行假想
Moreover, even if we take the decline of Yosemite as granted, the argument commits a hasty generalization.hasty generalization与其用在这里驳“减少”这一现象,不如放在后面驳整个causation的generalization It is merely based on two studies at a specific location----Yosemite National Park. With no matter how detailed data within only one specific location, it is impossible to reach any conclusion about the number of amphibians of the entire globe, for the detailed varieties, climates and geographical conditions that vary from one location to another prevent us from drawing any sweeping genralization as the author has done.
Furthermore, the author rules out a more probable explanation--the introduction of trout--as the reason of amphibians decline and alleges that the pollution is the real reason. Given the fact that tout are known to eat amphibian eggs, the author should cite concrete evidence but not reject such an explanation so curtly. Even the "trout reason" can be rejected, simply rejecting it cannot help us to reach the conclusion that pollution is the real reason since pollution is not the only alternative explanation.要给出具体的alternative explanation Thus this part of author's reasoning is ungrounded and unacceptable.
In conclusion, the argument is not well reasoned. To solidify it, the author should cite more convincing evidence which can indicates a strong correlation of the global decine of amphibian number and global pollution of water and
air.
------自改------
In this letter, the author's establishment of causation between the global air and water pollution and the worldwide decline of amphibian number is unconvincing for it's simply based on the two studies.
First of all, merely two studies in 1915 and 1992 cannot reveal the overall trend of the transition in Yosemite's amphibian number. What should be noticed is that the time span between the two studies is more than 70 years, during which not any data is provided by the author. In fact, the number of amphibians in Yosemite can be highly fluctuant over time. It is possible that the number in these two years were by chance at a crest and a trough respectively. Thus, even whether the number of amphibians in Yosemite has really been decreasing is still debatable.
这里到底需不需要一个moreover?Even if we take the decline in Yosemite as granted, the author's way to explain such a decline as a result of pollution is unacceptable. Fist, given the fact that tout are known to eat amphibian eggs, which can be a probable reason of the amphibian decrease, the author should not curtly deny it without any evidence or reasoning. In addition, simply ruling out the "trout factor" does not necessarily guarantee the pollution to be the only alternative explanation. The amphibians may also decrease due to the decrease of accessible food, the advent of other natural enemies than trout and even the natural extinction.
Furthermore, even if such a causation is valid in Yosemite, the author's extension of this causation to the entire globe is obviously too hasty. The detailed varieties, climates, geographical conditions, and of course, the seriousness of air and water pollution vary from one location to another. Actually, even the worldwide trend of amphibian number cannot be generalized from such a provincial conclusion, not to mention the global cause-and-effect relationship.
In sum, the argument could alert people of a potential effect of pollution on the existence of some animals, the reasoning itself is however not persuasive.
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