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182. The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.
“Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100.are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who still ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish margarine from butter, or they use the term “butter” to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.”
In this argument, the author has mentioned that only about 2 percent of customers have complained when margarine replaces butter in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. And then, the author thinks that either these customers cannot distinguish margarine from butter, or they use the term “butter” to refer to either butter or margarine. Based all of above, the speaker suggests that the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well for avoiding the expense of purchasing butter. But in my view, the author makes several logical fallacies in the argument.
At the first, although only about 2 percent of customers have complained when margarine replaces butter in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States, this situation cannot proves that 98 percent people are happy with the change. In my opinion, this kind of attitude of these customers only proves that they do not against with the change. Even if they do not like this way, they do not issue their own view yet. Maybe they just do not care of the change, but they have had an appraisal very badly in their heart.
In addition, the second logical mistake of the author is the recommendation that is these customers cannot distinguish margarine from butter, or they use the term “butter” to refer to either butter or margarine, though 98 people out of 100 do not complained this change. Perhaps many people can distinguish the difference between butter and margarine, this kind of behavior only just say that the customers keep their own position and do not issue their own view.
Based all of above, maybe they will not like patronizing our Happy Pancake House again. Predictably, it is really like this, the profits of our Happy Pancake House will be decreased. This kind of method loses more than gain. So we can summarize the problem with the argument is that the author fails to take into account the possible change in the profits of Happy Pancake House after the replacement. Thus we cannot evaluate the overall effect of the recommendation.
Finally, even if the Happy Pancake House’s southwest customers are happy with the change, the author does not have the enough evidence to prove the customers in other regions will respond similarly to it. Maybe those people who are in other regions are generally more concerned about whether they eat margarine or butter than the people who are in southwest region.
In sum, the author's evidences do not warrant his conclusion. If he wants to persuade all of people, he must first provide more information to prove that the 2 percent customers who have complained the question about butter and margarine do not against the change, and they have been able to accept it now. At the same time, to support that the recommendation that is we should extend the change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well, the speaker also should reports that a market research which is about that whether the customers of the southeast and northeast can accept this change. If not, we cannot evaluate the overall effect of the recommendation. |
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