[a习作temp] Argument66 严重超时，郁闷&痛苦 [复制链接]

thmin
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电梯直达

楼主

发表于 2005-3-18 19:34:34 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

练了好几天了,现在居然是越来越写不出来了,怎么会这样啊!

Argument66 第4篇让砖头来得更猛烈些吧！
------摘要------
作者：thmin 共用时间：50分56秒 307 words/536 words(完成版)
从2005年2月18日18时22分到2005年2月18日19时50分
------题目------
The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
'Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.'
------正文------
By citing several certain pieces of evidence that predict a increasing demand for heating oil in the northeast of US, the arguer recommend the client to invest in Consolidated Industries to promote their business, one of which major operations is retail sale of home heating oil. After careful examinations, however, this argument is unconvincing in several respects.

To begin with, the argument is based on the unwarranted assumption that homes in the northeastern United States will continue to use oil as their major fuel for heating. However, this is not necessarily the case at all. It is equally possible that after a severe winter, as the arguer has claimed in the letter, the people in this region have developed some new and revolutionary methods for heating in the future. For instance, they may begin to use electrical heating machine instead of oil, for the sake of efficiency and some environmental reason. In short, lacking evidence which is necessary to be provided, the arguer's claim that homes in the northeast will continue to use heating oil in winter is unreliable.

In addition, the arguer cites two pieces of evidence to support his prediction that this winter, the temperature of the northeast will in all-time low. First, the arguer points out that last year these homes experienced 90 days of below-average temperatures. However, this does not ensure that this year the weather will remain the same as it was. It is in all likelihood the temperature will begin to rise. Furthermore, even the evidence draw from the Waymarsh University's prediction that the weather pattern will continue for several more years is open to doubt. The arguer may wants to lend some authoritive support to justify his analysis, but one university's prediction is scant evidence to convince people how the weather will be like in the next few years. How about weather forecasters in other universities? How about the experts on weather outside the universities? Without presenting these people's opinions, the argument is far from defensible.

A third problem with the argument is that the arguer draws false causal relationship between the fact of the increased number of newly-built homes and the increased demand of heating oil in the winter. Will the newly-built home automatically lead to an increasing demand for heating oil? Not necessarily. First, these new homes may not use oil for heating. Second, these families may not be aware of the chilly winter of the northeast. It is entirely possible that they have moved from regions where the winter is much more severe than it is in this region.

To sum up, the argument is not convincing as it stands. To better evaluate it, the arguer must provide sufficient evidence to convince me that people in the northeast will undoubtedly still use oil for the major heating in the future. The arguer must also provide opinions from many different people to prove the cold weather pattern will continue for the next few years. Finally, the arguer should also provide me with evidence that newly-built homes will also consume a large amount of heating oil in winter to establish a correct causal relationship between their comings and increased demand for heating oil.

我爱我的兔子,她的名字叫Mary

下一个拐角,就是与幸福的邂逅

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comingsoon
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沙发

发表于 2005-3-18 20:42:18 |只看该作者

The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
'Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.'
------正文------
By citing several certain pieces of evidence that predicting might predict predicting might predict是什么意思 a increasing demand for heating oil in the northeast of US, the arguer recommend the client to invest in Consolidated Industries to promote their business, one of which whose major operations is retail sale of home heating oil. After careful examinations, however, this argument is unconvincing in several respects.

To begin with, the argument is based on the unwarranted assumption that homes in the northeastern United States will continue to use oil as their major fuel for heating. However, this is not necessarily the case at all. It is equally possible that after a severe winter, as the arguer has claimed in the letter, the people in this region have developed some new and revolutionary methods for heating in the future. For instance, they may begin to use electrical heating machine instead of oil, for the sake of efficiency and some environmental reason. In short, lacking evidence which is necessary to be provided, the arguer's claim that homes in the northeast will continue to use heating oil in winter is unreliable.

In addition, the arguer cites two pieces of evidence to support his prediction that this winter, the the temperature this winter temperature of the northeast will in all-time low. First, the arguer points out that last year these homes experienced 90 days of below-average temperatures. However, this does not ensure that this year the weather will remain the same as it was. It is in all likelihood the temperature will begin to rise. Furthermore, even the evidence drawdrawn from the Waymarsh University's prediction that the weather pattern will continue for several more years is open to doubt. The arguer may wants to lend some authoritive authoritative support to justify his analysis, but one university's prediction is scant evidence to convince people how the weather will be like in the next few years 感觉可以直接说but a university’s prediction is far from convincing. How about weather forecasters predictions in other universities? How about the experts’ opinions on weather outside the universities? Without presenting these people's opinions, the argument is far from defensible.

A third problem with the argument is that the arguer draws false causal relationship between the fact of the increased number of newly-built homes and the increased demand of heating oil in the winter 这句话的感觉似乎是说increased demand of heating oil也是fact. Will the newly-built homes automatically lead to an increasing demand for heating oil? Not necessarily. First, these new homes may not use oil for heating 感觉这个理由和前面有重复之感，其实可以说有新房就一定会有人住. Second, these families may not be aware of the chilly winter of the northeast. It is entirely possible that they have moved from regions where the winter is much more severe than it is in this region.

To sum up, the argument is not convincing as it stands. To better evaluate it, the arguer must provide sufficient evidence to convince me that people in the northeast will undoubtedly still use oil for the major heating in the future. The arguer must also provide opinions from many different people to prove the cold weather pattern will continue for the next few years. Finally, the arguer should also provide me with evidence that newly-built homes will also consume a large amount of heating oil in winter to establish a correct causal relationship between their comings and increased demand for heating oil.

总体感觉不错，就是时间稍长了些。

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sailing_yf
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板凳

发表于 2005-3-20 21:08:31 |只看该作者

The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
'Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.'
------正文------
By citing several certain pieces of evidence that predict a increasing demand for heating oil in the northeast of US, the arguer recommended the client to invest in Consolidated Industries to promote their business, one of which major operations is retail sale of home heating oil. After careful examinations, however, this argument is unconvincing in several respects.开头不熟练,难道套路不好吗？

To begin with, the argument is based on the unwarranted assumption that homes in the northeastern United States will continue to use oil as their major fuel for heating. However, this is not necessarily the case at all. It is equally possible that after a severe winter, as the arguer has claimed in the letter, the people in this region have developed some new and revolutionary methods for heating in the future. For instance, they may begin to use electrical heating machine instead of oil, for the sake of efficiency and some environmental reason. In short, lacking evidence which is necessary to be provided, the arguer's claim that homes in the northeast will continue to use heating oil in winter is unreliable.

In addition, the arguer cites two pieces of evidence to support his prediction that this winter, the temperature of the northeast will in all-time low. First, the arguer points out that last year these homes experienced 90 days of below-average temperatures. However, this does not ensure that this year the weather will remain the same as it was. It is in all likelihood the temperature will begin to rise. Furthermore, even the evidence drawdrawn from the Waymarsh University's prediction that the weather pattern will continue for several more years is open to doubt. The arguer may wants to lend some authoritive support to justify his analysis, but one university's prediction is scant evidence to convince people how the weather will be like in the next few years. How about weather forecasters in other universities? How about the experts on weather outside the universities? Without presenting these people's opinions, the argument is far from defensible.

A third problem with the argument is that the arguer draws false causal relationship between the fact of the increased number of newly-built homes and the increased demand of heating oil in the winter. Will the newly-built home automatically lead to an increasing demand for heating oil? Not necessarily. First, these new homes may not use oil for heating. Second, these families may not be aware of the chilly winter of the northeast. It is entirely possible that they have moved from regions where the winter is much more severe than it is in this region.这段驳斥的有些牵强，可以说新来的人就会用oil做燃料吗？或新来的选择别的公司

To sum up, the argument is not convincing as it stands. To better evaluate it, the arguer must provide sufficient evidence to convince me that people in the northeast will undoubtedly still use oil for the major heating in the future. The arguer must also provide opinions from many different people to prove the cold weather pattern will continue for the next few years. Finally, the arguer should also provide me with evidence that newly-built homes will also consume a large amount of heating oil in winter to establish a correct causal relationship between their comings and increased demand for heating oil.
好文

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