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China Studies: Project description

Proposed project
The aim of the project is to investigate how China's growing economic and military power will lead to a new security and defense balance in the Asia-Pacific region and globally, among these being to explain the consequences for China’s neighbours and the U.S. superpower.

China’s role as an economic superpower is illustrated, including the interdependence between the Chinese and American economies, China’s influence on the economies in the rest of Asia and finally the significance of economical growth for the country’s internal stability.

The relative strength of and internal coherence between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) are analysed, including the composition of the Central Military Commission (CMC).

The degree to which China’s rapidly growing defense budget is being used to enhance the republic’s power projection capabilities is explained.

China’s ability to develop new missile technology and strategic weapons is analysed and the strategic balance assessed, including the influence of the Chinese space programme.

China’s declared aim as a global actor is discussed and assessed in relation to actual policy-making, as is the extent to which there existsa “China threat”.

In this, the Chinese relationship with the U.S. superpower plays an important role. Will the U.S. pursue a strategy of engagement or containment? The changes in the U.S. strength structure in the Asia-Pacific region are assessed on this occasion. The sensitive Taiwan issue is illustrated and situated in its overall context.

Finally, China’s role as a regional actor is illustrated, including the struggle to become the leader in the race in Asia between China, its archenemy Japan and its real competitor India.

The North Korean nuclear programme and the role of the six-party talks with regard to stability in the North Eastern Japan-South Korea-China triangle are assessed. Also, competition with India regarding energy resources and the sea route to the Persian Gulf is situated within the strategic frame.

In the light of this, analysis, it will be described how the West can best develop a policy that makes room for a rising China within the framework of a changed international system, to prevent the frameworks being changed around us over time.

Methodology
Because of China’s closed political culture, it will not be possible to build the analysis on the basis of official documents or statements from actors on security and defense to the same extent as in more open political cultures. It can be difficult to perceive signals and understand nuances, and statements often must be read in the opposite sense of the apparent one, i.e. what is important is what one is not told.

There is, however, more openness in the Chinese think-tanks on defense and security policies. The prerequisite in obtaining this greater knowledge, however, will be personal relations based on trust and thus a well-extended network among Chinese researchers.

Besides Chinese media and sources, it will be necessary to base the project on Western sources, among which comprehensive literature is to be found.

The project must be based more than usually on analysis of the Chinese leaders’ actual actions in actual situations. To situate this in a larger frame depends on in-depth knowledge about China, an overview of the game between the actors at the regional and global levels, and an understanding of defense and security issues.

Time frame
The project is scheduled to begin on 1 May 2007 and is expected to last within a 3-year time frame with the possibility of extension. Interim results are expected to be published in reports every six months – one for each main research topic – and the final result will be provided in hard copy.

Main topics: China as a global and regional player

• China – an economic superpower?
  • The economic miracle
  • Limits to growth
  • Stability
• China as a military power
  • The People's Liberation Army and the Communist Party, the Central Military Committee
  • Modernization of the People's Liberation Army
  • The fast-growing defense budget
  • China’s power projection capabilities
  • Nuclear weapons, the missile programme and missile defense
  • Technology, arm procurement and the military-industrial complex
  • The space programme and the militarization of space
• China as a global player
  • Mega-trends
  • “Responsible stakeholder” in a multi-polar world?
  • The fight against terror and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
  • The World Trade Organization and yuan revaluation
  • The United Nations
  • Energy
  • Africa
• China as a regional player
  • The contest for leadership in Asia
  • The archenemy Japan
  • The real challenger India
  • The North-Eastern hexagon, Six Party Talks
  • Russia
  • Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
  • Pakistan
  • The sea lanes to the Gulf (String of pearls)
  • South China Sea
  • South East Asia and the Pacific
• The relationship to the only superpower USA
  • A “complex and important” relationship
  • Containment or engagement
  • The strategic triangle China-U.S.-Europe
  • Regrouping of the U.S. force structure in Asia-Pacific (lily-pads)
  • The Taiwan question