[a习作temp] 第一次发帖！argu 6！球拍球拍！ [复制链接]

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发表于 2010-8-23 09:48:14 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

6.The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our

proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended

Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz

Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on

jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."

Merely based on the unfounded assumption and dubious evidence, the statement draws the conclusion that a jazz music club, C note, would certainly make money in Monroe. To substantiate his conclusion, the arguer points out the evidence that C Note would dominate the local market. In addition, he indicates that the citizens in Monroe clearly love jazz music. Furthermore, he cites the result of a nationwide study to prove a typical jazz fan spend a lot of money on jazz entertainment per year. At first glance, this argument appears to be somewhat convincing, but further reflection reveals that it omits some substantial concerns that should be addressed in the argument. From the logical perspective, this argument suffers from several logical flaws.

The threshold problem with this argument is that, based on the fact that over 100000 people attended to Monroe’s jazz festival, the arguer infers that those people were appealed by jazz itself. However, the event, in itself, does not suffice to prove that the people who attended to the festival love jazz. Perhaps, they were attracted by the gratuitous ice cream which is offered by the organizer or the organizer dispatched free souvenir. In addition, the arguer fails to point out the proportion of local people in the 100000 people, it is possible that most of the 100000 people came from other area of the country and they do not consume in the C Note. Without ruling out these and other possibilities, the arguer can not justifiably conclude that the local people love jazz music.

Another problem that weakens the logic of the argument is that several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe indicates the local people also love jazz. However, common sense informs us that this assumption is a poor one, because myriad of other factors, such as the fresh air, the convenient traffic, and quiet surroundings may be the reasons that the musicians chose to live in Monroe. Without ruling out these and other possibilities, the arguer can not justifiably conclude that there is a correlation between well-known jazz musicians and local people’s jazz passion.

Even assuming that the local people love jazz music, the evidence that the nationwide study cited by the arguer can also be applicable to a small area like Monroe is dubious. Although the survey indicates that a typical jazz fan spend $1000 on jazz entertainment a year, the arguer falsely assumes that the economic condition in Monroe is similar to the nation’s average point. However, it is entirely possible that the living standard in Monroe is low and the local people could not afford such amount of money on this entertainment.

Before I come to my conclusion, it is necessary to point out the last flaw involved in this argument that the arguer fails to mention the potential competitor that C Note might face in the near future. Also, the assumption is unwarranted because we know that people’s taste rarely remain the same over extended period of time. There are likely all kinds of other music styles such as rock and roll, classic, punk that appeal the local people several years latter. Any of these scenarios would serve to undermine the claim that C Note would do nothing but make money.

To sum up, the arguer fails to substantiate his claim because the evidences he cited in the analysis do not sufficiently lead strong support to what the arguer maintains. To make the argument more convincing, the author would have to confirm whether the local people love jazz music. Additionally, he would have to point out how much money does a typical fan in Monroe spend on the jazz entertainment. He also needs to consider the potential competition and the change of local people’s music taste. Therefore, if the argument had included the given factors discussed above, it would have been more thorough and logical convincing.