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说maple县发展限制了农业用地,要限制新房供应怕房价猛涨的那个,对比了另外两个县十年前和十五年前同样的政策
Merely based on the senseless reasoning,the author hastily makes the false and misleading conclusion that the proposed measure of limiting the supply of new housing will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County.The author makes such egregious mistakes such as cause and effect,false analogy and insufficient statistical investigations and analysis.
First of all,the author commits the "cause and effect"wrongness.It's assertive for the author to draw the conclusion that limiting the supply of new housing will inevitably result in a significant increase in housing prices.Nevertheless,other relevant grounds might influence the housing price as well,say, the inflation, the general economic tendency and the population.If there is certain evidence that Maple County will suffer a crisis,a economy depression in the future,with many dwellers emigrating to other place,then the demand on new housing,accordingly,will not necessarily be high,therefor leading the price of new housing to decrease on the contrary.Moreover,it's highly possible that the aforesaid reason has nothing to do with the alleged result.
In addition,the proponents and opponents of the proposed measure both make the conclusion by falsely making the irrational analogy between the state of housing price in Chestnut and Pine County and that of the Maple County ,ignoring the gaps of various situations between them such as size,population,local economic policy made by governors and the general economic tendency.Besides,even though it may prove true that the two counties bear enough resemblance to Maple County to compare,it's taken for granted that Chestnut County remained unchanged over the past ten years,and Pine County the past fifteen years.Due to the variances as size and development,the scenario now could be far different from that time.
What's more,there is a severe weakness in the statistical investigation. The amount of the sample may be not adequate enough to support the analyses.It's highly possible that they investigated 1000 houses,however the entire investigation is around 10000.And the vaguely usage of "modestly"and"significant"is too subjective to insinuate a large number of the sample,maybe the increase in Chestnut County is modest compared with that in the Pine County,but relatively significant when compared with itself.
To sum up,the conclusion reached in the argument lacks tenability since the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the author claims.To make the argument more compelling,the author should provide more information concerning representative statistical evidence.To better evaluate the argument,we need more convincing evidence that the significant increase on house price mainly due to limiting the supply of new housing. |
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