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[a习作temp] 新G A60处女作求指导！ 31号考试的伤不起 [复制链接]

liabixiaoxin
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电梯直达

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发表于 2012-3-21 20:21:06 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

本帖最后由 liabixiaoxin 于 2012-3-21 20:33 编辑

In this argument, the conclusion that the demand for heating oil would increase and investment in Consolidated Industries(CI) is recommended should be made with closer scrutiny of data, evidence, and feedback from residents in the northeastern United States. The argument appears to be plausible, however, it is based on several unsubstantiated assumptions and is therefore not strong enough for the client to invest in CI.

In the first place, the author concludes an increased demand for heating oil. The author draws the conclusion from the fact that the districts in northeastern US are typically cold in winter, whose major fuel for heating is oil, and many new homes are being built in response to population growth. Although it is entirely possible, he/she obviously overlooks other explanations and does not supply any substantial evidence to verify this assumption. The heating season may probably shorten greatly due to the warm effect and the major fuel for heating would also be substituted. On the other hand, immigrants coming to these regions in order to spend their summer vacations and move to other warmer regions during the winter. The author's reasoning is definitely unconvincing unless he/she can assure me that such scenarios are unlikely.

Even assuming the fact that demand for heating oil would increase, I can not accept author's recommendation to invest in CI because it is based on untenable assumptions that we can certainly make profits from investment in CI because of the increased retail sale of home heating oil, which might not be the case. There are many other factors which will also lead to profits. Probably CI enjoys a high reputation among other companys of high quality in heating oil and has advantage of brand. Perhaps the prices of heating oil is lower in CI to attract more consumers. Or perhaps other business operations in CI can bring huge profits which can supplement the little deficit in the retail sale of oil. We just don't know. Until the author provides further evidence to exclude all these concerns, it is unfounded to reach the conclusion involved in the argument.

Last but not least, even assuming the foregoing assumptions, the author fails to take into account the fact that CI may not be the most profitable company. Although CI's major business operations is retail sale of home heating oil, it does not concludes that CI would benefit most from the increased demand. Alternative companys, whose only business operation is heating oil, can subvert CI's domination in this area with better operational ideas and more effective ways to attract customers. Without accounting for and ruling out all other alternative explanations, it is reasonable to cast considerable doubt on this assumption.

To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence mentioned in the analysis does not strongly support what the arguer maintains. Therefore, if the author wants to persuade clients to invest in CI, he/she needs to conduct a statistically reliable and valid survey about the increased demand for heating oil whose respondents spend winter in the northeastern regions and do informative researches on the study of CI.

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shinian1987
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沙发

发表于 2012-3-22 14:44:24 |只看该作者

In this argument, the conclusion that the demand for heating oil would increase and investment in Consolidated Industries(CI) is recommended should be made with closer scrutiny of data, evidence, and feedback from residents in the northeastern United States. The argument appears to be plausible; however, it is based on several unsubstantiated assumptions and is therefore not strong enough for the client to invest in CI.

In the first place, the author concludes an increased demand for heating oil. The author draws the conclusion from the fact that the districts in northeastern US are typically cold in winter, whose major fuel for heating is oil, and many new homes are being built in response to population growth. Although it is entirely possible, he/she obviously overlooks other explanations and does not supply any substantial evidence to verify this assumption. The heating season may probably shorten greatly due to the warm effect and the major fuel for heating would also be substituted. On the other hand, immigrants coming to these regions in order to spend their summer vacations and move to other warmer regions during the winter. The author's reasoning is definitely unconvincing unless he/she can assure me that such scenarios are unlikely.

Even assuming the fact that demand for heating oil would increase, I can not accept author's recommendation to invest in CI because it is based on untenable assumptions that we can certainly make profits from investment in CI because of the increased retail sale of home heating oil, which might not be the case. There are many other factors which will also lead to profits. Probably CI enjoys a high reputation among other companys of high quality in heating oil and has advantage of brand. Perhaps the prices of heating oil is lower in CI to attract more consumers. Or perhaps other business operations in CI can bring huge profits which can supplement the little deficit in the retail sale of oil. We just don't know. Until the author provides further evidence to exclude all these concerns, it is unfounded to reach the conclusion involved in the argument.（这一段的逻辑思路有问题，LZ认为CI不一定靠retail sale of oil 获利，但依然承认CI可以获利，那就没有成功反驳要投资CI这一论断。）

Last but not least, even assuming the foregoing assumptions, the author fails to take into account the fact that CI may not be the most profitable company. Although CI's major business operations is retail sale of home heating oil, it does not concludes that CI would benefit most from the increased demand. Alternative companys, whose only business operation is heating oil, can subvert CI's domination in this area with better operational ideas and more effective ways to attract customers. Without accounting for and ruling out all other alternative explanations, it is reasonable to cast considerable doubt on this assumption.（这一段也是这个问题，CI不是最赚钱的公司，不代表不赚钱，也就意味着投资不一定没有回报。LZ要搞清楚自己要反驳的论断是什么。）

To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence mentioned in the analysis does not strongly support what the arguer maintains. Therefore, if the author wants to persuade clients to invest in CI, he/she needs to conduct a statistically reliable and valid survey about the increased demand for heating oil whose respondents spend winter in the northeastern regions and do informative researches on the study of CI.

文章表达还不错，拼写也很不错。
不过在论述的时候，逻辑思维不是很清楚，需要重新整理一下。

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casmit
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板凳

发表于 2012-3-24 11:36:17 |只看该作者

2# shinian1987
You are so wonderful

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liabixiaoxin
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地板

发表于 2012-3-25 16:46:26 |只看该作者

2# shinian1987 前几天没时间回=，=谢谢版主指点，我这是看了精华帖后仿照写的，所以逻辑还有些问题…

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liabixiaoxin
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5楼

发表于 2012-3-27 11:24:43 |只看该作者

2# shinian1987 版主，可不可以这么思考：
1作者认为烧油需求增加，但不能证明这点。
2即便需求增加，仅靠卖油的利润也不一定增加，还可能有价格因素，公司自身因素。
3即便以上两点成立，该公司还有别的领域可能亏损，导致投资亏钱

我觉得说这篇A的论据问题有点牵强，但其他主要的观点又找不出太多，希望版主再指点一下，谢谢！

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