[a习作temp] argument124 新手习作，恳请指正 [复制链接]

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电梯直达

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发表于 2005-9-10 15:24:12 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

The following is a memo from the business manager of National Daily News.
'To expand the home delivery service of our national newspaper, we should concentrate on the state of Urba rather than on the state of Sylva. First, the population of Sylva is more widely dispersed, which would require us to spend more money to deliver our papers in that area, resulting in less profit per customer. Second, a long-term study of television viewing habits suggests that Sylvans prefer local to national news, since they spend twice as much time viewing local news programs as they do viewing national programs. Finally, because events in Urba receive more coverage in our newspaper than do events in Sylva, we can expect Urbans to be more interested in reading our newspaper.'

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In this argument the arguer tends to reach the conclusion that National Daily News(NDN)should concentrate on the state of Urba(U) rather than the state of Sylva(S) to expand the home delivery service of NDN's national newspaper. To support his claim, the arguer point out that the population of S is more widely dispersed and that this fact would require them to spend more money to deliver their newspapers in that area so that they would get less profit per customer. Also he cites the result of a long term study of television viewing habits two show that people in S prefer local to national news since they spend twice as much time viewing local news programs as they do viewing national programs. In addition, the arguer mentions that U can be expected to get more interested in reading their newspaper because events in U receive more coverage in their newspaper than do events in S. At first glance, this argument seems strongly substantiated an logically organized. However, after careful scrutiny, several fatal flaws that make this argument vulnerable can be detected.

First of all, the arguer point out that the population of S is more widely dispersed and that this fact would require them to spend more money to deliver their newspapers in that area so that they would get less profit per customer. However, the arguer fails to establish the causal relationship between the fact that the population of S is more widely dispersed and the conclusion that NDN would get less profit per customer, because the number of customers would not necessarily decline due to a higher delivering fee. And it is very possible that the newspaper is widely welcomed by the population in S, and thus the profit would rise because of the accordingly high rate of subscription.

Second, in this argument, the arguer cites the result of a long term study of television viewing habits two show that people in S prefer local to national news since they spend twice as much time viewing local news programs as they do viewing national programs. Nevertheless the survey maybe unreliable due to some statistical fallacies, since the arguer provides no information about what kind of people were surveyed and how large a portion of the total objects did respond to it. So it is likely that only the portion who prefer local news to national give the answer. Unless the arguer could rule out these doubts, he cannot confidently draw the conclusion.

Finally, the arguer mentions that the population in U can be expected to get more interested in reading their newspaper because events in U receive more coverage in their newspaper than do events in S. Even if the propensity in coverage is true, however, it does not follow that the population in U will get interested in their newspaper because it is common sense that whether a newspaper is welcomed is mainly determined by the quality and efficiency of the coverage.

To sum up, from what has been discussed above, the arguer fails to provide adequate reasons to support his claim that NDN should concentrate on the state of U rather than the state of S to expand the home delivery service of NDN's national newspaper. As a remedy, he needs more detailed information concerning the reader's propensity and further survey into it. Also he should make his deduction more logical to strengthen his argument.

[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-9-10 at 18:01 ]