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Argument117:
The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
最近一次调查超过70%的回应者报告说他们被要求回家完成的工作量比以前多。由于Valu-Mart在过去并没有发现办公用品部销量的显著上升,我们应该利用这种在家办公的趋势,在所有Valu-Mart商店增加家庭办公机器比如打印机、小型复印机、碎纸机和传真机的存货。我们也将增加办公用品比如纸笔和钉书机的存货。通过这些变革,我们办公用品部将会成为我们商店中盈利最多的部门。
写作提纲:
1, 简述题目
2, 指出调查不可信。
3, 指出作者的假设有漏洞。
4, 指出作者的预测太武断。
5, 总结全文。
In this argument, the author recommends that all Valu-Mart stores should increase the home office machines and supplies in order to make the office-supply departments become the most profitable component. To support the conclusion, the author cites the result of a recent survey that people take more at work home than they did in the past. The conclusion sounds reasonable. A careful examination, however, would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.
To begin with, the whole argument’s basement is the result of a recent survey that over 70 percent of respondents report that they are required to take more work home with them form workplace. However, the result of the survey is problematic in several respects. Firstly, the author does not inform us how many people participate in the survey. If the number is small, then "70 percent of respondents" cannot be representative of most customers. In addition, we are not informed about whether the survey is conducted by authority and how did the survey select sample. Without these important and necessary evidences, I can not asses the reliance of the survey.
Next, given the result of the survey is reliable, the author unfairly assumes that the demands of office machines and supplies will increase. Two critical flaws are involved in the assumption. First of all, it is entirely possible that all the work of the people who are required to work at home are finished in internet, if so, the printers, copy machines and fax machines are not necessary to them. Meanwhile, taking more work at home and the amount of total work are different things. If the total amount of work dose not increase very much, the office-supply such as paper, pens, stapler does not increased either. Since the author ignores these possibilities, I cannot take the side with author.
Last but not least, even the sales of office-supply indeed increase, the author unfairly predicts that the office-supply department will be the most profitable of Valu-Mart stores. It is entirely possible that other departments have more profitable prospective than office-supply department. Without providing any evidences of the sales of other departments and an objective comparison between office-supply department and other departments, the author can not convince me.
In sum, the author's conclusion is poorly supported. To strengthen it, the author must confirm the reliance of the survey and provide more evidences to prove the demands of office supply will increase. Also, a comparison between office-supply and the rest departments of Valu-Mart is necessary.
WORD:415 |
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