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ILOVEISSUE
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发表于 2007-3-18 14:13:32 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

TOPIC: ARGUMENT68 - The following appeared in a memo from a budget planner for the City of Grandview. "To avoid a budget deficit next year, the City of Grandview must eliminate its funding for the Grandview Symphony. Our citizens are well aware of the fact that while the Grandview Symphony Orchestra was struggling to succeed, our city government promised annual funding to help support its programs. Last year, however, private contributions to the Symphony increased by 200 percent, and attendance at the Symphony's concerts-in-the-park series doubled. The Symphony has also announced an increase in ticket prices for next year. Such developments indicate that the Symphony can now succeed without funding from city government and we can eliminate that expense from next year's budget. This action will surely prevent a budget deficit."
WORDS: 599 TIME: 0:30:00 DATE: 2007-3-18

In this article, the author concludes that City of Grandview should eliminate its funding for Grandview Symphony to avoid a budget deficit next year. However, close scrutiny on the evidence provided by the author reveals that it lends little credible support to this conclusion.

In the first place, the mere fact that private contributions to the Symphony increased by 200 percent and attendance in one series doubled is little indication that the Symphony have sufficient contribution. What is the private contribution the years before last year? The author does not mention. It is entirely possible the private contribution was only a small number. For example perhaps the contribution was only one-tenths of the consumption on the instruments of the symphony. If so, then even if the number has increased by 200 percent, this contribution is still not enough for the symphony. In addition, the author also fails to take into the possibility that the doubling attendance at the series last year was only an exception. Perhaps last year, the city experienced an unusual music preference and after this year the contribution will also go to the low level. Or perhaps there was famous singer attending the series thus attracting the audience. Without ruling out these alternative explanations, the author cannot justifiably assume that the Symphony is successful.

What's more, the fact that Symphony has announced an increase in ticket prices for next year does either indicate that the Symphony can succeed without funding. How much is the ticket now? Is the cost still very low? Or is the cost high? How much will the price be increased. Will they increase the price only by 10%? Or will the price of the ticket be third times the now price? In addition, the author fails to consider the attitude of customers toward the increase of the price. It is entirely possible that since the ticket price increase, more citizens would prefer to listen to the tape rather than buy the tickets and attend the live performance. In fact, since the symphony want to increase the ticket, it is entirely likely that their funding are not sufficient. If so, and if the government stops helping the Symphony, then chance are that the Symphony cannot prosper.

Finally, even if the foregoing assumptions are substantiated, the author's conclusion that eliminating the expense from next year's budget can prevent a budget deficit is still unwarranted. In two respects, first, the author provides no evidence that the government will face a budget deficit next year. How is the condition of the economy in Grandview? What will the government do next year? The author does not mention. In addition, granted that the economic condition in Grandview is not satisfactory, the author's conclusion is still unconvincing. As we all know, there are many factors that can lead to a budget deficit. Perhaps the budget for funding the Symphony is only a quite small part of the government budget. Perhaps the government will have to cope with a serious environmental pollution, the cost of which may lead to the budget deficit. Also, the author fails to consider some uncontrollable condition that may affect the economy. Perhaps next year there will be a overall economic depression throughout the country. If so, then the author's prediction will be open to doubt. Therefore, it appears reasonable for the government to focus on such factors than to eliminate the expense for funding the Symphony.

In sum, this argument has several flaws as discussed above. To substantiate it, the author should provide sufficient evidence that the Symphony has the ability to succeed without funding from city. To better evaluate this argument, I should also need to know the economic condition in the City of Granview.

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发表于 2007-3-18 14:37:53 |只看该作者

回复 #1 ILOVEISSUE 的帖子

In this article, the author concludes that City of Grandview should eliminate its funding for Grandview Symphony to avoid a budget deficit next year. However, close scrutiny on the evidence provided by the author reveals that it lends little credible support to this conclusion.

In the first place, the mere fact that private contributions to the Symphony increased by 200 percent and attendance in one series doubled is little indication[indicative] that the Symphony have sufficient contribution. What is the private contribution the years before last year? The author does not mention. It is entirely possible the private contribution was only a small number. For example perhaps the contribution was only one-tenths of the consumption on the instruments of the symphony. If so, then even if the number has increased by 200 percent, this contribution is still not enough for the symphony. In addition, the author also fails to take into the possibility that the doubling attendance at the series last year was only an exception. Perhaps last year, the city experienced an unusual music preference and after this year the contribution will also go to the low level. Or perhaps there was famous singer attending the series thus attracting the audience. Without ruling out these alternative explanations, the author cannot justifiably assume that the Symphony is successful [is not struggling to success no longer].

What's more, the fact that Symphony has announced an increase in ticket prices for next year does[not] either indicate that the Symphony can succeed without funding. How much is the ticket now? Is the cost still very low? Or is the cost high? How much will the price be increased. Will they increase the price only by 10%? Or will the price of the ticket be third times the now price? In addition, the author fails to consider the attitude of customers toward the increase of the price. It is entirely possible that since the ticket price increase, more citizens would prefer to listen to the tape rather than buy the tickets and attend the live performance. In fact, since the symphony want to increase the ticket, it is entirely likely that their funding are not sufficient. If so, and if the government stops helping the Symphony, then chance are that the Symphony cannot prosper.

Finally, even if the foregoing assumptions are substantiated, the author's conclusion that eliminating the expense from next year's budget can prevent a budget deficit is still unwarranted. In two respects, first, the author provides no evidence that the government will face a budget deficit next year. How is the condition of the economy in Grandview? What will the government do next year? The author does not mention. In addition, granted that the economic condition in Grandview is not satisfactory, the author's conclusion is still unconvincing. As we all know, there are many factors that can lead to a budget deficit. Perhaps the budget for funding the Symphony is only a quite small part of the government budget. Perhaps the government will have to cope with a serious environmental pollution, the cost of which may lead to the budget deficit. Also, the author fails to consider some uncontrollable condition that may affect the economy. Perhaps next year there will be a overall economic depression throughout the country. If so, then the author's prediction will be open to doubt. Therefore, it appears reasonable for the government to focus on such factors than to eliminate the expense for funding the Symphony.

In sum, this argument has several flaws as discussed above. To substantiate it, the author should provide sufficient evidence that the Symphony has the ability to succeed without funding from city. To better evaluate this argument, I should also need to know the economic condition in the City of Granview.

简洁地开头,分析的很仔细，赞

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