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发表于 2007-8-1 18:53:20 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
WORDS: 488 TIME: 0:30:00 DATE: 2007-7-31

The argument conclude that people West Meria should eat Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil everyday to prevent colds and lower absenteeism, because the people in the East Meria eat lots of fish every day and seldomly visit the doctor for the treatment of cold. At first glance, the argument seems convincing, but after carefully examination, I find the argument suffers from several logical flaws.

First and foremost, the author falsely depends on the assumption that only once or twicw times of cold treating means once or twice times of catch cold. However, no evidence in the argument can account for this. It is extremely possible that the people in East Meria catch several times of cold per year, however, the treatment fee of the doctor in East Meria is too high that people often eat some medicine rather than visit the doctor. They will not see the doctor until the cold is extremely serious. Even though people in the East Meria seldom catch cold, the author cannot relate this to the high consumption of fish, because no explanations exist in this argument to support this. Perhaps, the weather there are warm and it is hard for people there to catch a cold. Moreover, may be the water resource there contains some kind of element that can prevent the people from catching a cold. With out ruling out such possibilities, the author cannot generalize that people in East Meria seldom catch a cold because of the high consumption of fish.

Moreover, even assuming that people in East Meria seldom catch a cold because of the high consumption of fish, the author's recommendation relies on a false analogy between East Meria and West Meria. This analogy falsely depends on the assumption that the environmental conditions in both places are similar. However, it is entirely possible that the two places are different from each other. To detail this, the weather in the East Meria are warmer than the West. Or the people in the East are more fit than in West because they enjoy a government fitness plan. With out ruling out such possibilities, the author cannot persuade me that the West Meria will gain the same benefit with East Meria.

Last but not least, even though the two places will share the same benefit, that is to say, if the people in the West eat lots of fish they will seldom catch cold, the argument falsely establish a relationship between fish and the fish oil. Maybe the factor that can resist the cold is in other part of the fish like the meat of the fish. Even assuming that the fish oil contains the factor that prevents people from catching a cold, the author cannot conclude that the Ichthaid is the exact factor. Perhaps, some other substance such as the proteins, incretion contained in the fish oil may avoid the risk of catching a cold.

In sum……