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TOPIC: ARGUMENT2 - The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.
"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting."
WORDS: 584 TIME: 0:30:00 DATE: 2008-1-29
In this argument, the author draws a conclusion that in order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, homeowners there should adopt their own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting. He points out that if they adopt their own set of restrictions, property values in Deerhaven Acres would increase and cites many facts and evidences to support his assertion. However, through a logical and precise scrutiny, I become aware of several dubious fallacies in this argument that should be questioned and criticized.
As a threshold matter, even if I concede that homeowners in Deerhaven Acres can copy what homeowners in nearby Brookville have done such as landscaping and housepaiting, the arguer’s conclusion is still merely based on a dubious and unsound premise that a set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting result in the increasing of the property values. It is entirely possible that landscaping and housepainting are not the significant factor responsible for the increasing of the property values, at least not the only one. The arguer fails to consider and rule out other alternative explanations. Such alternatives might include the fact that authority made regulations and laws which could attract investment, or that new technology was widely developed in Brookville as in Silicon Valley. Or perhaps, government built new highway and railroad nearby Brookville. Another scenario is that Brookville community built many new advanced facilities. Any of these scenarios, if true, would undermine the conclusion. To substantiate the assumption or justify the claim, the arguer should provide sufficient evidence. Thus, regardless of whether the facts and evidences used to support the premise are adequate, the author cannot convince me that the restrictions on landscaping and housepainting would result in the increasing of the property values.
In addition, even if the landscaping and housepainting are the vital factor affecting the property values, the author still overlooks the time and commits a fallacy of false analogy. The arguer’s inference that the restrictions which were effective in the past will also be effective in the future relies on poor assumption that during the last seven years all conditions upon which the effectiveness depends have remained unchanged. Also, the mere fact in Brookville landscaping and housepainting have served to increase the property values is scant evidence that Deerhaven Acres would achieve its goals by following Brookville’s example. Perhaps the same course of action would be ineffective on Deerhaven Acres due to geological differences between the two places. In short, lacking evidence that conditions on the two places are relevantly similar, the author cannot convince me on the basis of Brookville’s experience that the proposed course of action would be effective in attaining Deerhaven Acres’ goals.
Finally, the author falsely equates average property values with all property values. It is entirely possible that some property values increase while others decrease. If so, the homeowners in Deerhaven Acres would not accept the restrictions, because nobody know which would benefit from the restrictions before they are set.
To sum up, the argument, while it seems logical at first, has several flaws as discussed above. The arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. The argument could be improved by providing evidence that the course of action which was effective in the past will be also effective in the future. It could be further improved by providing evidence that the restrictions on landscaping and housepainting are the vital factor affecting the property values. If the argument includes the given factors discussed above, it would have been more thorough and adequate.
[ 本帖最后由 goldin2008 于 2008-1-30 02:29 编辑 ] |
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