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发表于 2009-3-23 22:28:53 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

117.The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they
are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they
were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its
office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this
work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home
office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders,
and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as
paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply
departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."

In this memo, the business manager concludes that the office-supply department will become the most profitable component of Valu-Mart stores by increasing the stock of home office machines and stock of office supplies. In support of this conclusion, the speaker cites a survey to prove that worker take more work home with them from the workpalce than they were in the past. The argument seems plausible at first blush, however, careful examination reveals that it is unwarranted.

To begin with, the survey cited by the manager is open to doubt. The arguer provides no information about how broad the survey was and how the survey was conducted. Firstly, if the survey was limited to a few kinds of companies, the results of the survey would be doubtful. For example, if the survey was limited to just IT companies, ignoring other kinds of companies -- business, services, and so on. Or perhaps the survey just involved young greenhand workers who were so unskilled that they should continue their work to complete their assignment at home. In addition, if the questions of the survey were leading or if the survey relied on self reports, the results may be also open to doubt. Perhaps, the work taken home does not increase but complains that workers make to their companies increase. Without ruling such factors that can explain the survey results, the generalization of the survey is undermined.

In addition, even assuming that workers take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past, the manager assumes further that workers would buy more stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines, as well as stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. After all, such stock of office machines is very dear that most workers cannot afford them. In fact, in most modern companies, most work that are taken home is computer based work such as writing reports, sending emails to boss or clients, thus workers can successfully address such work with a laptop that connected the Internet without needing of office machines or office-supplies.

Finally, even if workers would buy more home office machines and office supplies, the conclusion rests on an additional assumption that workers will prefer Valu-Mart over other office machine suppliers. It is entirely possibly that the quality of home office machines provided by Valu-Mart is so bad that seldom consumers would buy its products. Furthermore, without providing the profit of other departments of Valu-Mart, it is unfairly to claim that office-supply department will become the most profitable component of the stores.

In sum, the conclusion reached in this argument is invalid and misleading. To strengthen the argument, the manager should offer more detailed information about the survey and clear evidence--perhaps by way of local survey or study--that workers do want to buy home office machines and office supplies to deal with their increasing home work. It is also necessary to provide the profit of other departments of the store.