[a习作temp] Argument47 【四人行小组】第05次作业 by lsarahz [复制链接]

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发表于 2009-7-18 17:30:45 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

本帖最后由 lsarahz 于 2009-7-18 17:32 编辑

TOPIC: ARGUMENT47 - Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
WORDS: 472 TIME: 00:42:00 DATE: 2009-7-18 16:34:45

1,记录不准确不能确定global cooling
2,原因不一定只有meteorite 和volcano 可能是polar ice melt 或者reduced sun activity.
3,作者觉得是火山全凭假设其实并无确实根据

This argument is well-presented with scientific evidences, but not well reasoned. The conclusion of the cooling phenomena was originated by a volcanic eruption suffers from a few aspects of fallacies which I will present as follows:

First of all, the statement of global cooler temperature in the mid-sixth century is lack of sufficient evidences. The arguer mentioned that there are only documentary in Asia and Europe that narrated the phenomena of dimming sun and extremely cold temperatures. Then the arguer falsely equals the Asia and Europe to the whole planet. It is possible that contemporary temperature of other areas such as Africa, America, etc. was not necessarily as cold as it was in Asia and Europe.

Furthermore, given the cooling temperature did occur worldwide, the cause of a cooler temperature is refined by the arguer to merely two incidents: eruption of a volcano, and a meteorite colliding with earth. The arguer neglected the fact that there are reasonable explanations for such temperature change such as the climate change caused by melting of polar ice plate; the activity of sun is unusually low. It takes a lot of heat to melt the polar ice plate. Consequently, if it melted to some extent and absorb too much heat in the earth, the temperature can be reduced easily. And when the sun is inactive at that time, the solar energy is also inadequate to maintain a normal temperature. On the other hand, the dimming sun can possibly resulted from the low temperature. These reasons all can effectively apply to the reduction of earth temperature and dimming sun as well, but the speaker refused to mention any of other causes.

Among the two causes listed as possible reasons, the arguer falsely draw the conclusion that climate change was caused by volcanic eruption based on the record that some Asian records indicate a loud boom that sounds like a volcano. Apparently, this conclusion was drawn based on barely assumptions. The fact that there was no meteorite collision record can not neglect the possibility of such incident. Moreover, the arguer insist that the Asian records of a loud boom is a truly indication of volcanic eruption. However, the record is just the assumption of ancient people. Their assumption is barely based on their refined knowledge. They probably didn't know what sound of meteorite collision was like. Thus, the possibility of the big boom is originated from meteorite collision can not be ruled out.

In sum, the arguer falsely equaled the two regions to the entire planet, neglected other possible causes to the phenomena, and draw a conclusion merely based on assumption. Thus, it is presumptuous to simply come to the conclusion based on the insufficient evidences. In order to make the argument more convincing, the arguer should take further efforts to gather more evidences that support the conclusion.

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