[a习作temp] argument1 求拍谢谢 [复制链接]

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发表于 2010-1-30 00:31:34 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

GRE argument 1

ARGUMENT1 - The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."

Based on the fact that stores of Nature’s Way located in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives are most profitable, the vice president recommends that they should build their next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents, to gain great profits similarly. Although various evidences were cited to justify the recommendation, close scrutiny to each piece of evidence, however, indicates that they lead little support to the recommendation.

In the first place, the author commits a fallacy of hasty generalization in illustrating the assumption that all-time high sales of running shoes in Plainsville explains that the residents are actually in fond of exercise. It is possible that a unstoppable trend lead by some well-know super sports star currently swept the city thus people just wear running shoes to be fashionable. Also, the stores may conduct a sales campaign to clean running shoes out of the market and put on new arrivals as soon as possible because it’s out of season. The author’s assumption is unacceptable under these situations.

Another major flaw exists in this argument is about the sample the arguer studied in the report. Although the arguer does constitute a significant business increase in a single health club, however, many other health clubs are actually excluded from the report. It is open to doubt that quite a severe business crisis in recent years makes the right health club a innovation. They hire a new gifted manager, work out a new efficient and sporty system of training, ads more and put a lot of coupons into the market. Finally, they convert other healthy club’s customers into their members, which surely leads the business decrease of others’.
Therefore, the sample cannot statistically support the claim that Plainsville has many residents highly interested in exercise.

The argument is also weakened by the fact that the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between that participating in a fitness for life’ program and that schoolchildren grow out to be interested in exercise. It is likely that the children are starting to get bored with exercise through these useless programs. It may, in face, depends on how well the program is organized and the methods taken to help the children to learn about fitness that determines whether it can contribute to make these children more willing to exercise or not. Hence, the arguer fails to convince us of the prospect of the market as well.

Finally, even if the author can substantiate all these assumptions foregoing, it is unjustifiable to conclude that build a new store in Plainsville could ensure a great profit. The author overlooks a myriad of economic factors that would cause some adventure. Consider, for example, the rent for the new store maybe relatively much higher than any other cities Nature’s Way has ever met in their report. The average revenue for each employee may be doubled since the city suffers such a inflation. Any one of these possibilities would narrow the profit and add more challenges into the recommendation.

In conclusion, the recommendation that build a new store in Plainsville is not well supported. Although it is true that seeking every opportunity plays the most important role in business, without ruling out these possible scenarios above, it is as risk as no recommendation at all. The vice president need to provide more information about the detail in all aspects before we can evaluate the argument more efficiently.