[a习作temp] Feb 20th argue 147 by melody [复制链接]

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电梯直达

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发表于 2010-2-20 16:40:13 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

147.The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"1.Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past
two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales
trend is about to be reversed. 2.The survey asked video-game players what
features they thought were most important in a video game.3 According to
the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which
require the most up-to-date computers.4. Whirlwind has just introduced
several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at
people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games.
5.It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to
increase dramatically in the next few months."

逻辑谬误：
1.调查范围不广，样本面小，可能只要那集个人认为这些Features最重要，而另外人可能持有不同看法比如说较为可爱的画面啊等等，或者比较怀旧的游戏nostolgia.并不需要配置跟高的电脑。
2.广告部一定有用，可能人们并不会相信广告号。
3.就算广告起作用，也不一定针对10-25岁的人有用，很可能10-25岁的人并不喜欢这游戏。而且忙于学习和工作无暇顾及游戏。很有可能其他年龄段的人更喜欢这种游戏
4.不一定销量奇迹般上升。首先因为整个公司在过去两年内销量持续下降，原因可能是质量不过关什么的，取不到人们的信任。就算人们喜欢，不一定买，可能只是喜欢他的图像，并不喜欢游戏的故事设计。其次，就算上升，鉴于之前低迷gloomy的销量，不一定在几个月内出现巨大进步。
5.就算新游戏取得巨大进步，不一定能够挽救低迷的市场，因为其他游戏不一定受欢迎。
结论：作者下结论太早，需要更多的市场调查，和产品分析，以及提出正确的销售对策，才可能扭转目前局面。

By providing a survey of the inclination of the game players, the author hastily made the assertion that the declining sales trend of Whirlwind video games would be reversed once the new games come into the market. Deep analysis of the evidences, however, reveals that none of them lends credible support to the assertion.
First of all, fallacy rests on the investigation made by the magazine. Without giving the detailed material which including the exact number of the players and their ages, implicit rationale behind the assertion that the opinions of players under investigation represents the overall suggestion is suspicious as it stands. It is entirely possible that only a few people have been surveyed and what they say could not typify the overall suggestions.
Even if the investigation is fair and reasonable, only by holding an advertising campaign toward the consumers could not save the W company out of the gloomy sales situation. As it is known to us all, although advertisement takes effect in publicizing products, it could not change the consumption concept. Possibility that players do not believe in the advertisement can not be ruled out. Granted that advertisement functions to some extent, and attributes to a flash increase in sales, without good enough quality, it is hard to keep the ascending sales trends.
Moreover, query whether 10-25 year old persons like these kinds of new games remains. It is entire possible that they prefer traditional games to the introduced ones. Granted that the new games have met their preference of the life-like graphics, it does not mean the whole design such as the game plot and music are favorable, too. Besides, people in the ages are busy with their studies or careers and perhaps do not have enough time for games. All the reasons above could not ensure the sales of W video games. Let alone a dramatic increase in only a few months.
Finally, granted that the new games of W company would make a huge progress in sales, the author falsely equates them with the progress of the whole company products sales since the other games may not as popular as the new ones are.
In sum, without giving detailed material of the survey and other persuasive evidences, what the author asserts renders it unconvincing as it stands. For the sake of improving the sales of the products, more investigations and deeper analysis of the market is needed for W company.

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