[a习作temp] argument147 [复制链接]

shihanling
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发表于 2007-4-6 23:59:52 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

argument 147
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of

video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game

players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players

prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just

introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old,

the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are

likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

This seemingly sound argument draws conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind video games will soaringly

upgrade in the coming few days. However, after careful refection, this argument is neither practical nor

logical.

In the first place, the author unfairly assumes that lifelike graphics bears some relation to the sales of video

games. However, the author provides no evidence to support that this is the case, nor does the writer build

up a causal relationship between lifelike graphics and the sales. It is highly possible tha t other factors might

contribute to the change. For instance, the 3D sound, genernally accapcted, is also another vital part over

the sales of the computer games. It is also likely the sales of video games just result from the point that

whether a large number of fans have the most up-to-date computer, which is required by the new type of

the electronic games. Lacking evidence that links lifelike graphics to the sales, it is premature to conclude that

lifelike graphics was responsible for the sales.

Secondly, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. Even if people 10 to 25 old enjoy playing video

game, which is, of course, an unwarranted assumption, it does not follow that they must buy such new style

of video games leading to the result that the sales of video games of Whirlwind will sharply enhance. It is

highly possible that other facters may have contributed to the sales. Perhaps, the products of the competitor

are also put in the market at the same time, and the advertisement are public knowing rather than Whirlwind.

Or perhaps, the purchasing ability of fans of video games is very low. Without eliminating other possible

cases that give rise to the sales of Whirlwind video games, the author cannot firmly affirm that conclusion

discussed above.

Last not the least, the conclusion shows that Whirlwind will restore the next few months, and the sales of

video games of this company are likely to increase dramatically, the author claims. Yet the contention is base

on a recent survey, only which is to say that the trendency of the sales of Whirlwind video games is about to

resersed. So the assumption, over the sales of video games of Whirlwind highly escalating, lacks evidence

and overstates. Just as much more indication given by the author over his or her thesis, we can trust it.

After careful consideration, the writer lacks both precise reasoning as well as detailed evidence to make a firm

argument. For better evaluation, other factors mentioned above should be given careful examination.