TOPIC: ARGUMENT150 - The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine.
"The decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide clearly indicates the global pollution of water and air. Two studies of amphibians in Yosemite National Park in California confirm my conclusion. In 1915 there were seven species of amphibians in the park, and there were abundant numbers of each species. However, in 1992 there were only four species of amphibians observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. The decline in Yosemite has been blamed on the introduction of trout into the park's waters, which began in 1920 (trout are known to eat amphibian eggs). But the introduction of trout cannot be the real reason for the Yosemite decline because it does not explain the worldwide decline."
WORDS: 505 TIME: 00:27:28 DATE: 2007-8-13 21:50:43
The author reckons that the decline in the numbers of amphibians all over the world is mainly result from the global pollution of water and air. To support this the arguer provide us with what happened in the YosemiteNational Park in California which the amphibians' number declined drastically and the species reduced as well. The argument seems sound and reasonable at the first glance, but actually it is based on several false assumptions as well as logical fallacies when carefully considered.
First of all, the author fails to provide us with abound information when alleging that the genuine reason for the Yosemite decline is not owing to the introduction of trout but is fundamentally the result of the water and air pollution there. It is well known to all that trout eats amphibian eggs. We know the Yosemite park has been blamed on the introduction of trout into the parks' waters which began in 1920. Perhaps it is the trout are truly decisive factors of the amphibians’ amount.
Furthermore, even if the trout's introduction is not the really source of the decline ,the author provide no evidence that the decline in the park is due mainly to the pollution of water and air. Because there may exist other factors to influence the number of amphibians in the park. Perhaps with the development of technologies, it is the changing temperature or noise around National Park acted as the main cause of the reduction of amphibians and lead to the eggs number’s drastically declination. If the author can not assure me that the circumstance around the park has not changed from 1915 to 1992,which means there are no other factors except the pollution of water and air have influenced to the amphibian, the argument is still inconvincible at all.
Moreover, even if the decline of amphibians in the park Yosemite is truthfully due to the local water and air pollution. The author can not deduce that the decline of amphibians in the numbers all over the world are absolutely all root from the same reasons as which in the park Yosemite. The amphibians in the YosemiteNational Park can only be taken as one sample. We can not make conclusions by only one sample when it comes to a worldwide phenomenon because there’s still various factors we should taken in to account . Without additional samples form diverse geographic locations ,I cannot accept the author's sweeping generalization about the decline of amphibians and global pollution.
In the final analysis ,the author cites proves nothing about the reason for the general decline of amphibians worldwide. To make the argument further convincible the author should do strengthens these sections:
1.The author should examine all changes occurring in the park Yosemite between 1915 and 1992 and show that air and water pollution do have effect on the decline of the numbers of amphibians there
2.The author must provide us with information of variety geographic district’s air and water pollution is the major origin of the decline of local amphibians.
The author reckons that the decline in the numbers of amphibians all over the world is mainly result from the global pollution of water and air. To support this the arguer provide us with what happened in the YosemiteNational Park in California which the amphibians' number declined drastically and the species reduced as well. The argument seems sound and reasonable at the first glance, but actually it is based on several false assumptions as well as logical fallacies when carefully considered.
First of all, the author fails to provide us with abound information when alleging that the genuine reason for the Yosemite decline is not owing to the introduction of trout but is fundamentally the result of the water and air pollution there(ts句太长了点). It is well known to all that trout eats amphibian eggs. We know the Yosemite park has been blamed on the introduction of trout into the parks' waters which began in 1920. Perhaps it is(it is多余) the trout are truly decisive factors of the amphibians’ amount.
Furthermore, even if the trout's introduction is not the really source of the decline ,the author provide no evidence that the decline in the park is due mainly to the pollution of water and air. Because there may exist other factors to influence the number of amphibians in the park. Perhaps with the development of technologies, it is the changing temperature or noise around National Park acted as the main cause of the reduction of amphibians and lead to the eggs number’s drastically declination(意思不对). If the author can not assure me that the circumstance around the park has not changed from 1915 to 1992,which means there are no other factors except the pollution of water and air have influenced to(to多余) the amphibian, the argument is still inconvincible at all.
Moreover, even if the decline of amphibians in the park Yosemite is truthfully due to the local water and air pollution. The author can not deduce that the decline of amphibians in the numbers all over the world are absolutely all root from the same reasons as which in the park Yosemite. The amphibians in the YosemiteNational Park can only be taken as one sample. We can not make conclusions by only one sample when it comes to a worldwide phenomenon because there’s still various factors we should taken in to account . Without additional samples form diverse geographic locations ,I cannot accept the author's sweeping generalization about the decline of amphibians and global pollution.(全部是推论,举个例子似乎好些,尽管例子很难举)
In the final analysis ,the author cites proves nothing about the reason for the general decline of amphibians worldwide. To make the argument further convincible the author should do strengthens these sections:
1.The author should examine all changes occurring in the park Yosemite between 1915 and 1992 and show that air and water pollution do have effect on the decline of the numbers of amphibians there
2.The author must provide us with information of variety geographic district’s air and water pollution is the major origin of the decline of local amphibians.