[a习作temp] argu70 Does the incaution about the safety cause the injuries? [复制链接]

thony-shen
UID：2516637

寄托新兵

Rank: 2

声望: 0
寄托币: 226
注册时间: 2008-7-15
精华: 0
帖子: 0

电梯直达

楼主

发表于 2009-2-5 22:35:01 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

TOPIC: ARGUMENT70 - Studies show that in 70percent of traffic accidents, at least one driver involved is less than 10miles from home when the accident occurs. This statistic indicates that drivershave a tendency to drive incautiously when they are close to home, probablybecause familiar surroundings give them a false sense of security. Thus, theplaces where people feel safest are the places where they are in fact atgreatest risk of serious injury.
WORDS: 451
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2009-2-5 22:04:17

Does the incaution about the safety causethe injuries?
In this argument, the author concludes thatthe places where people feel safest are the places where they are in fact atgreatest risk of serious injury. To support this conclusion, the author relieson a statistic number, and points that driver incautiously when they are closeto home. At first glance, the author' reasoning seems to be appealing, whilecarefully examine it, and we can find that it is unconvincing. It containsseveral flaws which render it unconvincing as it stands.

First of all, the author's evidences areinsufficient to substantiate the conclusion. Obviously, the author does notprovide enough information on the subject of the survey. We know nothing abouthow the conduct of the survey and how well the result represent the whole groupof drivers, even the human beings. Lacking such evidence, it is entirelypossible that the result only represent a small group of drivers. Then weshould not be so sure about the conclusion. The study reveals, on average, onlya correlation between a specific example and can't generate the generalconclusion. Facing such limited evidence the author's conclusion that manydrivers have accident and the place is less than 10 miles from home.

In the secondly place, by relying onstatistic number to support the conclusion the argument depends on theassumption that the drivers familiar the road situation. But the authorprovides no evidence to support the assumption. Perhaps the drivers don’t familiarthe situation of the road, or perhaps the terrain of the road is very seriously.In either side, the author could not justifiable rely on the mere fact thatmany drivers have accident and the place is less that miles from home tosupport the claim that they familiar surroundings.

In the thirdly place, base on the fact thatthe drivers have a tendency to drive incautiously when they familiar thesurrounding the author and occurs traffic accidents infers that people feelsafest are the places where they are in fact at greatest risk of seriousinjury. However, it is not the essentially the case. It is entirely possiblethat this is the job weak of drivers and can't reply on other jobs or persons.To extend that this is the case, and then the author's assertion isunwarranted.

To sum up, theconclusion lacks credibility. Regardless of who the author is, he or she hasoverlooked or chosen to ignore many aspects of his or her conclusion. To strengthenit the author must give more evidences that how well the studies represent thewhole group of drivers and how well the drivers’ actions represent the humanbeings' behaviors or feelings.

Life is all about choices.