[a习作temp] Argument235【0906G背水一战三月小组】第一次作业 by mfkxc [复制链接]

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发表于 2009-2-28 08:49:08 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

Argue235-The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.
"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."

Merely based on unfounded assumption and dubious evidence the author concludes that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. To substantiate the conclusion, the arguer points out that the number of older people in the listening area has increased while the total number of the listeners has declined and the decreased sales of recorded music in stores. In addition, the arguer indicates that the survey supports his conclusion. However, in my point of view, this argument suffers from several logic flaws.
Firstly, the arguer recommendation depends on the assumption that the number of older people is larger than that of the other people and older people dislike listening rock-and-roll music rather than continuous news format, however, author does provide enough information on the subject. The argument does not refer the accurate date about the number of listeners and the rate of older, even other people who has different job, salary and custom. Simultaneously the decline of the number of the listeners may caused by the decrease of the quality of the programming or it is just a short-time appearance.
Secondly, the arguer fails to establish the causal relationship between the facts that sales of recorded music and the claim that the decreasing number of music program listeners. This argument is unacceptable and there is no evidence to support the connection between these two events. Perhaps, for example, the decreased sales also may result from economy depression, loss of purchasing power and no new CD issued recently.
Last but not least, the arguer’s recommendation relies on what might be a poor analogy between neighboring cities and our city. The analogy falsely depends on the assumption that both cities are similar. However, it is entirely possible that the residents of our city have different customs and habits. In short, without accounting for important possible differences between both cities, the arguer can not prove the proposed method will help the radio station. Furthermore, we can not guarantee the result of survey is available owing to that citizens interested in politics may watch TV, read newspaper and suffer the Internet instead of listening news format. At the same time, the arguer does not give more details about the samples of survey. If the samples are all older people rather than young people, the result must be unconvincing.
To sum up, the conclusion of the author lack of credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer would have to demonstrate that investigate the new market of the continuous news format, the cost of shift and profit may bring.