[a习作temp] Argumen53我的第八篇 [复制链接]

colin.jolin
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发表于 2009-3-18 15:22:01 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

本帖最后由 colin.jolin 于 2009-3-18 15:23 编辑

TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.

"In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."

In the analysis, the Human Resources Manager recommends that they should fire off their present president Pat Salvo, and appoint the current director of Starlight Rosa Winnings. In support of the conclusion, the arguer cites the example that Pat Salvo made their profits fall considerably. Additionally, he reasons that Rosa has promoted a lot of profits for Starlight Jewelry. Besides, he notes that the profits of appointing Rosa overweigh the cost. At first sight, the argument is seemly convincing. Nevertheless, further reflection tells me that it suffers from several flaws as follows.

To begin with, the arguer provides no evidence to establish that there is a causal relationship between Fancy’s depression of and the leadership of Pat, which is obviously unwarranted. Perhaps the unpredictable financial crisis both at home and abroad led to the depression. Also another possibility is that domestic currency exchange rate has changed suddenly, which resulted in this depression. Even though we can trust that the depression is derived of Fancy’s leadership, based on this slim information we cannot conclude that he would not correct his mistake and prohibit the profits descending. Therefore, without taking account into and ruling out such alternative possibilities, the proposition is absolutely unimpressive.

Furthermore, the argument is based on a gratuitous assumption that Rosa could promote Fancy's profits. Actually it is possible Rosa is proficient in the realm of Jewelry rather than Toy. In this case, she also cannot stop the profits declining. Even if we accept Rosa’s appointment, it is necessary and essential for Rosa to take some time to be familiar with her new environment, which would lead to another cost for company in finance. The arguer can not safely draw any conclusion unless these problems are addressed.

Finally, there are several other factors, which are ignored by the arguer, contributing to the prosperity of the company. Assuming that increase of cost overweighs that of benefits in appointing Rosa, Fancy will fall in trouble of losing rather than gaining money. As well, the author overlooks the factor of the generous severance package to Pat. Since the author fails to offer enough information about expenses and benefits, he cannot ensure a profit of this project.

To sum up, as it stands the argument is wholly specious. To make the argument more persuasive, the arguer would have to provide more specific evidence that the depression is caused by his wrong action, he would not stop the profits declining and that the increase of benefits overweighs that of cost in appointing Rosa and firing Pat.