Argument42 【四人行小组】第3次作业 by Jeking [复制链接]

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电梯直达

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发表于 2009-7-13 21:58:26 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

TOPIC: ARGUMENT42 - The following appeared in a proposal from the economic minister of the country of Paraterra.

"In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign."
Outline:
1、
hastily generalize that the increase of foreign visitors arriving at Bellageas's main airport doubled indicates the increase of tourist.
2、
the author also assume that there is a causal relationship between an advertising campaign and the increase of tourist in Bellegea.
3、
the author also assume that the success of tourism in Bellegea can also repeat in Paraterra.
4、
the author assume the current director is best choice
WORDS: 312

TIME: 00:45:00

DATE: 2009-7-13 17:52:51
Hastily taking the increase of foreign visitors arriving at Bellageas's main airport doubled as indicator of the increase of tourist, falsely considering the correlation between an advertising campaign and the increase of tourist in Bellegea as the causal relationship, misapplying the success of Bellegea to Paraterra, and subjectively assuming the current director is the best choice, this argument commits many fallacies.

To begin with, the author hastily generalize that the increase of foreign visitors arriving at Bellageas's main airport doubled indicates the increase of tourist. It is entirely possible that there are some international conferences hold in Bellegea this year, and lots of countries took part in these conferences, thus the number of foreign visitors doubled. What is worse, may be the foreign visitors just make a change another plane at main airport. Without rule out others purpose of the visitors arriving at main airport, the author cannot convince us that the number of tourist have increased.

Additionally, even the number of tourist have increased, the author also assume that there is a causal relationship between an advertising campaign and the increase of tourist in Bellegea, just because the latter is followed the former. May be Bellegea had established more recreation facility, even constructed a Disneyland, and with the low price to attract more tourist around the world. Unless the author rule out other factors that also relates to the increase of tourist, it cannot convince me to believe their causal relationship.

However, even their causal relationship is true, the author also assume that the success of tourism in Bellegea can also repeat in Paraterra, just because Bellegea and Paraterra are neighborhoods. It is also possible that there are many differences between Bellegea and Paraterra that influence the success of ecotourism. There may be many historic sites in the Bellegea, but no one in Paraterra. And the economic condition of Paraterra is worst, they can’t fundraise enough money to promote ecotourism. So unless the author can provide enough evidence to substantiate the factors that effects the ecotourism are such similar that the success of ecotourism can repeat in Paraterra.

What is more, the author hide assume that it is the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office who make the advertising campaign work effective. There are many factors that involves in the advertising campaign, the director may play a tiny role in the campaign. Even the director play a important role, the current director ,who are not took part in the campaign, may be just work there a few days. While there may be other director who can do better work than the current director. So without providing evidence to substantiate the current director is best choice, the success of advertising campaign is uncertain.

To sum up, the argument’s conclusion is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the author must provide better evidence to substantiate that the increase of foreign visitors arriving at Bellageas's main airport doubled indicates the increase of tourist. To better assess the argument I need more information to support causal relationship between an advertising campaign and the increase of tourist in Bellegea. And I also need to know the success of tourism in Bellegea can also repeat in Paraterra, and the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office is the best choice.