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本帖最后由 yorkerjaster 于 2010-3-20 21:54 编辑
1# weasel
Thememo about how to increase rice's yields of Paucia, the small country (,)is well presented, but not well reasoned. The author attempts to make a similar strategy after considering the benefits of Abundia, the neighboring country. In order to convince others,the author provides some reasons to make his assertion seem(有问题) logical and reasonable. However, these evidence(s) (对应前面的reasons) (providing) from the author is(are) flawed in the following respects.
Firstly, the author establishes a model(model感觉用词不当),(,改成:)the neighboring country (which 去掉) produced 80 percent more rice last yearthan in any previous year. But the reason based on the fact that theyuse a newly developed variety of seed can not support the claimcompletely. There are entirely other possibilities. In one hand, newand advanced technology for cultivating and solution of management canalso cause the result. On the other hand, was the weather last year isperfectly suitable for breeding rice or is there a circumstance thatmore and more civilians who work outside come back to give hands(这个civilian回来帮忙有点牵强)?Without (ruling out)such evidence(s), the author can not make a conclusion that thenewly developed variety of seed contributes to the increased products.
Secondly, even though Aubdia, theneighbor succeeded with the seed, the assumption that we can also gethigh yields is weak because the two conditions betweenthe two countries are not similar enough to justify an analogical deduction
. Maybe the environment, such as ground, weather, topographyand other relative respects can not fit for the new seed. Even if the environment is perfect, it is also possible that farmers would not use this means because they do not want to take a risk byusing a new attempt instead of giving up the old which can bring them astable earning. Anyway, the assertion that Paucia will benefit from asimple copy, if sets up, lacks more information.
Finally, the author commits a fallacy ofhasty generalization. Even if Paucia get a high productivity of rice,they cannot confirm that they will solve their trade problems. Let usmake a hypothesis that the rice sells well, and then there is aquestion emerging: how do other parts of economy perform to improvecountry’s balance of trade? How can the author assert(s去掉) the trade willbe improved without mention of other products that are also exported?Furthermore, when the newly developed variety of seed is exported toother places, do their people prefer it? So we don't know whetherPaucia can capture the market by beating other rivals. Is it possiblethat Abundia has already control the market because of their earlierexporting?
In sum, the author should make a conclusion after considering more information, which includes the twocountries' , the civilians' and the whole market's circumstances. Only by copying a simple example from others, it's not sound and even stupid(好像侮辱人家了) to make a judge.
总结下:基本思路不错。 1.种子问题,事实缺乏一般性 2.地域不可对比性 3.贸易平衡的他因
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