这个题目真的不知道再往下怎么写了

zzceciliaUID: 3824266

Claim：Knowing about the past can not help people to make important decisions today.
Reason：we are not able to make connections between current events and past events until we have some distance from both.

Outline

The claim implies that the boundary between the current events and past events is completely distinct and they do not have any links.I disagree the claim of utterly denying the functions of the past experience，while the reason presented that we are not able to make connections between current events and past events until we have some distance from both is quite rational.

Apparently，While our societies have greatly changed drastically and the past and current events now scarcely connect.However there do have very subtle and unobservable connections underneath superficial appearance，which strongly contacts the past with current decisions.In fact，every rational decision is closely relying on the past experience.For example，we do not intend to touch against a sharp nail，for the reason that we were all previously hurt by nails and that sting could make us feel painful.This experience are not that useful in the first time，but after we suffer more，it gradually extends and evolves to a sort of“theory”that informs people that any sharp subjects could probably be able to hurt people.According to this theory people are less likely to be hurt in exploring unknowns.

Clearly，this theory serve to make life to be more calculated and make plausible predictions.Learning about the pasts are conducive to foresee what would happen through accumulating substantial behaviors or data of past.This point is especially true when we get close to the natural events.In the past ，human beings were facing a great challenge of natural disaster such like earthquake，hurricane，and tsunami.Through seriously observing phenomenons ，recording data of disasters and figuring out the principles，forecasting is not inconceivable for us，and the more we researching the pasts the more plausible it is. Nowadays，our lives are getting more efficient and more accurate due to the development of big data.We could very easily know what we probably like，where you would like to go and what you might do at a given time by SIRI which is capable of analyzing our behaviors of past and recording substantial data of past.